2023: Weighing Atiku’s chances

BY the prognosis of political pundits in Nigeria, the 2023 presidential election may yet be the defining moment and the year for total electoral victory for former Vice-President of Nigeria and the Waziri of Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar. As Winston Churchill succinctly espoused, “success is the ability to go from one failure to another without loss of enthusiasm.” No Nigerian politician understands this secret of success than the boy from Jada who has grown to be the man for Nigeria, Atiku Abubakar. God Almighty gives perseverance to very few of his chosen servants. I daresay that Atiku is one of those few chosen and lucky servants of God.  He has grasped this special gift and uses it in his political struggles to his advantage. I cannot see the future but can make predictions based on the unfolding political events in the country. There is likelihood that Bola Tinubu, national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will emerge as the party’s standard-bearer in 2023. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will most likely field a former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the Waziri of Adamawa to lead the party to victory in 2023. Atiku has proven his mettle by sending shivers to the nerves of APC in 2019 presidential election. He is the only PDP candidate who can wrestle power from the ruling APC. Indeed, the current preoccupation of the party is how to surmount the challenges of an Atiku candidacy in 2023.

If what is happening in the two major parties in the country is anything to go by, then we can understand that the battleground for the contest of president in 2023 will be between the two heavyweight politicians.  With all his popularity, influence and power in the APC, Tinubu is practically a political lightweight outside his political base – his comfort zone and native South-West geopolitical region. He is not known to the Igbo people of the South-East and to the South-South. Atiku has for a long time built a strong political fortress in the South-South and the South-East.. He will leverage on his wide political, social and business network to edge out his opponent in 2023. Unfortunately for Tinubu, these zones are his weak spots in politics. They have always been PDP strongholds. Voters from this part of the country will probably continue in this pattern and vote for the PDP in 2023.

Another advantage which PDP and Atiku have over Tinubu is in the choice of a running mate. The Waziri’s running mate will undoubtedly emerge from the South-East or the South-South. Tinubu must pick his running mate from the North. The APC is in the cauldrons over whom to pair with him in the 2023 presidential election.

There have been rumours that Yakubu Dogara, the immediate past speaker of the House of Representatives, or Boss Mustapha, the Secretary to the government of the Federation (SGF), will be the running mate to Tinubu. The APC is perhaps looking at this option to forestall the divisive clamour for Muslim-Muslim ticket by some members of the party. Nobody disputes the fact that both Boss and Dogara, are prominent politicians in the country. The question is, in what ways could they help Tinubu garner support of the majority but conservative Muslim population in Northern Nigeria? They may be popular among the Christians, but they don’t have the political clout to influence the vote in the North. From my observation, Atiku will sweep the South-South and the South-East, leaving only the South-West to Tinubu in the South. The North, as usual, will be the major battleground for the 2023 election. With Muhammadu Buhari out of the power equation in the next election, it is obvious that Atiku will be the only and most popular brand on everybody’s lips in the North. This mass appeal and acceptability will be the magic wand for Atiku to the detriment of Tinubu. The northern electorates will naturally gravitate towards Atiku. The region will be the political burial ground for Tinubu in 2023.

From this brief explication, we can deduce that the road to 2023 will be smoother for Atiku than for his opponent. For a self-monitoring and self-controlled business man cum politician, this time is the peak productive window for Atiku. It is the opportune time to focus and get prepared for the upcoming challenges in 2023. May we live to witness that special moment of glory and critical juncture for the former Vice President and Wazirin Adamawa.

• Balogun, a political analyst, writes in from Ibadan.

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