Why the population of EU countries has decreased for the 2nd year 

The population of countries in the European Union (EU) has declined for its second year. It was reported that on January 1, 2020 just before the coronavirus, the EU population was a total of 447,485,231. A population of 447,000,548 was registered across the EU in 2021. By the start of 2022, the number has dropped to 446,828,803. 

What could have caused the decline?  

1. Coronavirus 

The coronavirus is presumed to be a major contributor to this decline, but are other things that could have caused it too. In 2020, there was a decline in the birth rate by 9.1%. The rate had firstly increased from 10.2%in 2002 to 10.6% in 2008, which them in turn decreased to 9.1% in 2020. 

While the death rate was 9.9% in 2001, it decreased to 9.7 in 2004 and 2006. Also, in 2019 the death rate fluctuated to 10.4% and increased to 11.6% in 2020.  

2. A decrease in birth rate 

According to Eurostats , there has been a decline in the EU population as the birth rate recorded has been declining at a steady pace. In 2001, 4.4 million births were recorded. Then in 2008, there were 4.7 million births recorded. In 2020, 4.1 million births were recorded. When compared to the previous years, the results  were less than that of the previous years because of the pandemic.  

 Looking at the birth rate per 1000 persons in EU population, it was evident that less babies were being born. The birth rate in 2001 was 10.2, it increased to 10.6 in 2008 and went down to 9.1 in 2020. 

This showed a negative difference between the number of births and the number of deaths in the population. 

Furthermore, it’s said that the positive impact of migration that was under restrictions because of the pandemic’s travel ban, had hidden the fact about the decline for about a decade.  

Although, the EU population is experiencing a natural decline, the numbers are increasing on other parts of the world but at a decreasing growth rate since 1950.  

According to United Nations, China might cease to be the most populated country in the world as India may take over from them in 2023. 

3. Increase in death rate 

At the same time, 4.2 million deaths were recorded in 2001, 4.7 million in 2019, and  in 2020 an increase of 531 thousand deaths that amounted to  5.2 million deaths. The death of 5.2 million people is said to have been greatly influenced by coronavirus outbreak.  

Statistics has it that the death rate per 1000 person’s was 9.9 in 2001, then the EU population reduced to 9.4 in 2004 and 2006. In 2019 the death rate struggled to reach 10.4 and 11.6 in 2020. 

In the EU population, the rate of death in 2020 had not been recorded in the last five decades.  

 Juxtaposing the birth rate and death rate  

From the above mentioned, the difference between the number of births and number of deaths rate in during a given period is the  Natural Population Change.       

If there is a negative natural change, it shows that there are more deaths than births recorded, and if it turns out to be a positive one, it means that more births are recorded than deaths. 

In 2001, there was a positive population rate up until 2003 when the rate was 0.0. From that point till 2011 it still remained positive. Records also have it that the rate became negative in 2012 and has not stopped declining since 2016 to reach -1.1 in 2019 and -2.5 in 2020; the coronavirus year.    

Conclusively, the decline in EU population was not only attributed to coronavirus alone. The birth and death rate also contributed largely to the decline. 

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