Place of data analysis in election

There is a need for data and empirical analysis in our elections. I was shocked when somebody once said sentiments rule elections, not data. I must state categorically that data rules everything.

The argument that only certain political parties can only win with a northern candidate is terribly flawed. I argued that if the North brought in all the votes, Muhammadu Buhari would have been president in 2011.The assumption that the North has a bulk vote calls for further interrogation. The North brings about 40 million votes while the South brings in 38 million registered voters. Voter apathy has also increased and be rest assured that it is less than 32 per cent of that number that will turn up to vote.

In the North, the three key states are Kaduna, Katsina and Kano. President Buhari won all these states and to win the presidential election, a candidate must either win or reduce the margin of loss in those states. In the 2011 elections, President Goodluck Jonathan split the Kaduna votes; he had over one million votes although President Buhari won Kaduna.

The key battle ground is always Kaduna, as the Kano pattern has not changed since 1979. In 1979, Kano voted Aminu Kano with 76 per cent. In 2015 and 2019, Kano voted President Buhari with a heavy margin. Katsina will also naturally go the way of the APC. Kaduna is a swing state, I argue because of its cosmopolitan nature and the religious spread, so anyone who targets Kaduna can win it in the next election, Apart from the key states in the North, Bauchi and Kebbi can give one the numbers but not like the Kaduna, Kano, and Kebbi states,

In the South, Lagos, Rivers and Delta can pull in big numbers but with voter apathy the numbers will be reduced, but those states being won with big margins can give a candidate three million votes. My benchmark for this argument is the 2015 general election. The recent decision by some parties to think that the North can pull out all the numbers is ill-informed and not empirical. Whoever will win needs to win big numbers in the North and South. The candidate must do well in Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, as a big showing in these states can put six million votes in the bag for any candidate, then it is incumbent to consolidate on other states.

Empirically it is projected that voter turnout will be low and rigging will also be made difficult by the new measures put in place by INEC and the new electoral laws.

Rufai Oseni, rufaioseni@gmail.com

YOU SHOULD NOT MISS THESE HEADLINES FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE

We Have Not Had Water Supply In Months ― Abeokuta Residents

In spite of the huge investment in the water sector by the government and international organisations, water scarcity has grown to become a perennial nightmare for residents of Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. This report x-rays the lives and experiences of residents in getting clean, potable and affordable water amidst the surge of COVID-19 cases in the state…Place of data analysis  Place of data analysis

Selfies, video calls and Chinese documentaries: The things you’ll meet onboard Lagos-Ibadan train

The Lagos-Ibadan railway was inaugurated recently for a full paid operation by the Nigerian Railway Corporation after about a year of free test-run. Our reporter joined the train to and fro Lagos from Ibadan and tells his experience in this report…Place of data analysis  Place of data analysis