Afghanistan: US strategic withdrawal and panjshir valley

THE United States’ strategic withdrawal from Afghanistan has sent a clear message to Central Asia, which includes the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, who are on the frontlines of the war in Afghanistan. Three of the five countries share a long and porous border with Afghanistan, and the region is bound to its southern neighbor by ties of ethnicity, culture, history, politics, and language. They are also connected by flows of militant groups and illicit narcotics. Of all Afghanistan’s neighbours, the greatest focus has rightly been on Pakistan, whose internal dynamics have the most profound effect on regional stability. But what happens in Central Asia will also affect the outcome in Afghanistan. As the United States withdraws, Central Asia has to come forward to play a critical role in stabilization efforts and a broader regional strategy. Central Asian countries facilitate the movement of troops and non-lethal supplies into Afghanistan. Kazakhstan provides robust economic and humanitarian aid. Several countries, notably Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, are exporting cheap electricity, and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have expressed interest in helping advance a peace process in Afghanistan.

The U.S. primary objective in Afghanistan since 2001 has been to degrade the threat of terrorism against it and its allies. That basic goal was accomplished a decade ago: Al-Qaida’s capabilities are a fraction of what they used to be. The Biden administration’s decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 is a wise strategic choice that took significant political courage. The administration correctly assessed that perpetuating U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan has become a strategic liability and a futile investment that lost the capacity to alter the basic political and military dynamics in Afghanistan. That does not mean that desirable political and security developments will follow in Afghanistan after the U.S. military withdrawal. As we all know, since the beginning of the 20th century, when the United States first emerged as a global power, US presidents have made military interventions in a variety of lands outside the country’s borders for various reasons as part of the country’s foreign policy and national security strategy. Afghanistan is just one of many examples, including Vietnam, Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, Cuba, Nicaragua, Congo, and Cambodia, to name a few.

The US announced its plan to withdraw from Afghanistan, many European states seemed to have jumped on board, pledging to leave Afghanistan as quickly as the US did. We read in the press about the allegations that various Western countries, which stand up for many liberal and global values such as European values, human and women’s rights, and employer responsibilities, evacuated their embassies, down to the last piece of furniture, without even giving notice to their Afghan employees. In short, those who were abandoned by the US in strategic planning are now abandoning whoever they can on the ground. We have not made an inch of progress since the Trump era, when the irresponsible strategies of the US became a Western problem. Certainly, some will see this new Western problem as an opportunity as well, because, after all, we are not in 2001 anymore. The New Cold War has now become visible on multiple fronts.

The group holding out there now – the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) – recently reminded the world of the valley’s strength. “The Red Army, with its might, was unable to defeat us. And the Taliban also 25 years ago… they tried to take over the valley and they failed, they faced a crushing defeat,” Ali Nazary, the NRF’s head of foreign relations, told the BBC. Between 150,000 and 200,000 people are reported to live in the valley. Most speak Dari – one of Afghanistan’s main languages – and are of Tajik ethnicity. The Tajiks make up about a quarter of Afghanistan’s population of 38 million people – but the Panjshiris don’t look towards Tajikistan, one of Afghanistan’s northern neighbours. Instead, they have their own local identity. Mr Sharifi – who until recently was the director general for planning at the Afghan Ministry of Agriculture – describes the Panjshiris as brave, “perhaps the bravest in Afghanistan”. He says locals are irreconcilable with the Taliban – and have “an element of belligerence – but in a positive way”. Historical victories against the British, Soviets and Taliban simply “emboldened people further”.

After the defeat of the Taliban in 2001, the valley was promoted from a district to a province. It’s one of Afghanistan’s smallest. “The decision to make it a province in its own right was controversial,” says Dr Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Panjshiri fighters had a lot of power in the early 2000s, he explains. They had helped recapture Kabul and became “number one stakeholders”. Panjshiri leaders were given prominent positions in the government and military. The valley became autonomous and was the only province in Afghanistan where local governors – rather than people from outside of the area – were appointed. “Normally, governors had to be seen to be more loyal to the government than the local population,” says Dr Giustozzi. “Panjshir was a special case.”

According to Dr Giustozzi, there are “probably hundreds” of similar valleys in Afghanistan. But it’s the valley’s closeness to the main road north from Kabul that “gives it great strategic importance”. The valley entrance is not far from where the main highway from Kabul leaves the flat plain and rises high into the mountains towards the Salang Pass – a tunnel taking traffic to the northern cities of Kunduz and Mazar-i-Sharif. Between late 1980 and 1985, the Soviets launched at least half a dozen assaults on the valley – on the ground and from the air. Russian fighters had little experience of the terrain and were often left exposed to ambushes. The Soviets “received a thousand wounds” from the left, right and centre – says Mr Sharifi. One man – known as Mr DHsK after the Soviet machine gun he touted – used to hide under a rock and shoot at them, but they could never find him “and that drove them crazy”.

He says some of the current commanders were around at the end of that era. “They were trained to stand alone at outposts without proper communication from headquarters. They knew how to wait it out and inflict pain.”

• Donald writes in from Abuja

YOU SHOULD NOT MISS THESE HEADLINES FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE

We Have Not Had Water Supply In Months ― Abeokuta Residents

In spite of the huge investment in the water sector by the government and international organisations, water scarcity has grown to become a perennial nightmare for residents of Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. This report x-rays the lives and experiences of residents in getting clean, potable and affordable water amidst the surge of COVID-19 cases in the state…

Selfies, video calls and Chinese documentaries: The things you’ll meet onboard Lagos-Ibadan train

The Lagos-Ibadan railway was inaugurated recently for a full paid operation by the Nigerian Railway Corporation after about a year of free test-run. Our reporter joined the train to and fro Lagos from Ibadan and tells his experience in this report…