2027: Defections alter South-South political configuration

WAVE of defections across the major political parties in the country may have significantly altered the power equation, especially in the South-South against the leading opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has dominated the zone for the past 26 years of civil rule.

The defections have shrunk the ranks of members of the national and state legislative houses elected on the ticket of PDP particularly from the six states making up the geopolitical zone.

Save for Bayelsa, the PDP has lost its grip on three of the states: Cross River, Edo and Delta, while the situation in Rivers hangs in the balance due to the current emergency rule in the state.

Under the 1999 Constitution, the North-West has 92 members in the House of Representatives, North East (48), North-Central (51), South-West (71), SouthEast (43) while the South-South has 55 seats.

In the Senate, the NorthWest has 21 senators, NorthEast (18), North-Central (19), South-West (18), South-East (15), while the South-South has 18 senators.

A breakdown of representation in the state legislature in the South-South indicates that there are 29 members in the Delta State House of Assembly, comprising 22 from PDP and seven from APC.

Bayelsa State House of Assembly consists of four APC, two from the All Progressive grand Alliance (APGA), while the rest are for PDP.

Cross River has 24 members in the state assembly; Akwa Ibom (26), Rivers (32) and Edo has 24 members.

While APC controls Cross River, Edo and Delta, while PDP holds sway in Bayelsa, while the situation in Rivers and Akwa Ibom is suspect due to ongoing gerrymandering.

Three weeks ago, the entire structures of PDP collapsed into the APC, when the state governor, Sheriff Obovrewiri and his predecessor, Dr Ifea-nyi Okonwa, led other party leaders in exiting from the PDP that has ruled the state since May 1999.

This is in spite of assurances from Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former president of the Senate, Dr Bukola Saraki, PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) chairman, Adolphus Wabara and acting PDP national chairman, Illya Umar Damagum that there is no cause for alarm.

According to Atiku, defection is part of a normal political process as people can exercise their right of freedom of association.

Delta is strategic to the PDP, as the party has not only retained the state for the past 26 but also delivered massive votes to the party during national elections.

With the state now under an APC administration, only Bayelsa appears to be the state out of the six states in the South-South that is under PDP, as Rivers State is under a sole administrator, following the March 19 proclamation of an emergency rule in the state.

Consequently, Siminalayi Fubara who was elected as governor on the platform of PDP, was suspended for six months.

Apart from Edo and Cross Rivers, Akwa Ibom, the trio of Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta used to be in the firm control of PDP, a trend that played out in the last general election in the country.

2023 election results

For example, the result of the 2023 presidential election showed that, in Akwa Ibom, the APC polled 160, 620 votes; PDP got 214,012 votes; Labour Party (132,683) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) polled 7,796 votes.

In Rivers, APC scored 231,591 votes; PDP (88,468 votes); LP (175,071) and NNPP had 1322 votes.

The results showed that in Bayelsa, APC polled 42,572 votes; PDP (68,818), LP (49,957) and NNPP got 540 votes. In Edo, APC had 144,471 votes, PDP (89,585); LP (331,163); and NNPP had 2,743 votes.

In Delta, APC received 90,183 votes; PDP (161,600); LP (341,866) and NNPP got 3,122 votes while in Cross River, APC scored 130,520 votes; PDP (95,425); LP (179,919) and NNPP had 1,644 votes.

However, the opposition parties, particularly PDP is disadvantaged as the power equation tilts against it because of the defections that hit the party in Edo and Delta lately.

Reports that Governor Umo Bassey Eno of Akwa Ibom could join the fray became pronounced when he endorsed President Bola Tinubu and the president of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio for reelection in 2027.

The action of Governor Eno sparked criticism from PDP bigwigs, including a former deputy national chairman of PDP, Chief Olabode George, who called on the governor to tread softly since he was elected on the ticket of PDP.

But members of the National Assembly elected on PDP platform have backed the governor on the speculated move.

While affirming his imminent defection, the governor had last Wednesday, resorted to the use of analogy to depict the predicament of the PDP under which platform he was elected in 2023 against the speculated plan to defect to the APC.

He queried: “If you wanted to travel with Ibom Airline, and on the verge of taking off, it developed a fault that won’t enable it to fly, wouldn’t you board the next available plane to take you to your destination.”

Also, the APC through its national publicity secretary, Felix Morka, likened the party’s leaders to skilled pilots and crew – competent, hospitable, detail-oriented, and ready to serve.

“We couldn’t agree more that Plane PDP has become demonstrably inoperable and unsafe for travel. As safety and comfort are prerequisite conditions for flying, our great Party assures the governor that Plane APC is fit and ready to fly His Excellency and his entourage to their desired destination.

Our pilots and crew are highly competent, welcoming, attentive to detail, and on standby to serve. We assure Governor Eno that a flight with us will be a mighty good ride to remember,” the APC stated.

Implications of defections

Some implications of the ongoing realignment of forces in the South-South include a boost in the majority of the seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives a factor that could come in good stead during crucial legislative matters.

Besides, the political configuration in the zone has swelled the number of governors belonging to the APC Progressives Governors Forum, Southern Governors Forum and the Nigeria Governors Forum.

These organs, though do not have constitutional backing, tend to exerted much influence on state policies and programmes.

In addition, the increase in the number of the APC governors means a boost for APC in the composition of the National Economic Council (NEC), which is an integral force in policy formulation and approval, especially on matters bordering on concurrent legislative matters and economic issues.

Another significant implication of the alteration in the power equation in the South-South is the advantage it confers on President Tinubu as the buildup to the general election progresses.

It means that the president and the APC have gained expanded structures to depend for horse trading and campaign at the appropriate time the process for the 2027 goes full tootle.

This is because the struggles of the party subsist from the ward to local government, state and national levels, with the APC having the majority in the state legislative houses and those at the local governments in the kitty of the APC in the region.

Fate of PDP

The battle for PDP to reclaim its dominance in the South-South now rests squarely a few bigwigs like a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chief Tom Ikimi in Edo State, former governor Lucky Igbinedion, Senator Seriake Dickson and Governor Dioye Diri, both of Bayelsa State, as well as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr Nyesom Wike, who is embroiled in a testy supremacy tussle with some PDP elders across board.

However, acting national chairman of PDP, Ambassador Iliya Damagum, downplayed the political significance of the high-profile defections from the party in Delta, insisting that the outcome of the 2027 general elections will not be determined by the number of governors under a party’s control.

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In his reaction to the defection, former president of the Senate, Dr Saraki admonished PDP folks against losing hope in their party.

Saraki said: “My appeal to PDP members nationwide is that we should know that the sustenance of democracy is not a sprint. Rather, it is a marathon. It is not a knock-out football match series. It is a league. 24 hours is a long time in politics and nobody can predict how the dynamics will evolve in the coming weeks and months.

That is why PDP members across the country should not be discouraged, disillusioned, disappointed, or demoralised by the development in Delta State. We should stay strong and focus on strengthening the party. It is not necessary at this point to lament why they left.”