2023 presidency: As North begins search for candidate

MUHAMMAD SABIU, Northern Bureau Chief, writes on the ongoing discreet search by the northern political establishment for a politician that will protect the region›s interest and bring relief to the people after feeling let down by the Muhammadu Buhari government.

From all indications, political gladiators in the North appeared to have pushed the issue of zoning or rotation to the back seat. The new agitation among the northern elite is to have a candidate who is acceptable to the zone and, by extension, other zones. The move is being interpreted by some pundits as a conscious move by very influential blocs in the North to shut out a few demagogues from 2023 and shore up the chances of the North in the expected titanic battle for the presidency in the next political dispensation.

A few months ago, former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida had flown a kite by listing the credentials those seeking to run the affairs of the country in 2023 must possess. The former president, in an interview with a private television station to mark his 80th birthday, had made that claim, calling attention of Nigerians to the idea of electing a younger person to the office of president.  According to him, he had seen a young Nigerian who is fit to lead the country in 2023. Elaborating further, the former Nigerian leader remarked that the country needs a president who is between the ages of 40 and 60 to lead it now.

Though what he said could be dismissed as his own view, the Northern establishment might have taken it as a hint, knowing the pedigree of the former Nigerian leader, and concluded on who to support in 2023.  For instance, if one looks at the political space, the permutations in the country, especially regarding power rotation, are still miffed with intrigues and manipulations.

For some pundits, the former leader is just airing his views considering the fact that there are already well known contenders for the exalted office, but who are in their 70s and do not fit into Babangida›s postulation. According to such pundits, the experience of Joe Biden, 79, current president of the United States, has shown there is nothing wrong with having an older but highly intelligent as leader.

Already, a former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, who was the party’s presidential candidate in 2019, has indicated his desire to run for the office again. There is also former Lagos State governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a chieftain of All Progressives Congress (APC) whose ambition to be president has become a long running story. Incidentally both Atiku and Tinubu are in their 70s. It is unlikely they will back out of the race as this might be their last chance.

Indeed the fireworks have begun with Tinubu›s men pushing hard for him to clinch the ticket of APC. The sentiment being sold to Nigerians is that there was a power-transfer agreement between the ex-Lagos governor and President Muhammadu Buhari in relation to 2023.

This sing-song from his supporters has spread in the party and one of such people drumming support for Tinubu is Senator Rufai Sani Hanga from Kano State. Hanga, a staunch member of the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) and Buhari supporter, had explicitly said in an interview recently that there was an agreement to hand over to the APC leader after Buhari›s tenure in 2023.

Explaining further on the agreement, he said: «This is an open secret. There was an implied agreement. Even in law, there is an implied and expressed act. If something is expressed, there are no two ways about it. There was an implied agreement that he would take over. That was why the APC leader didn’t back out after the first tenure. If Tinubu had known that he would not benefit, he would have backed out during Buhari’s first tenure. But he knows there was an agreement,” the former CPC chairman noted, but doubted if Tinubu would be given the APC’s presidential ticket in 2023. He believed that there might be a fight within the power blocs existing between the governors and some forces in the presidency who are rooting for other candidates.

Like in APC, there are efforts to leave the contest open irrespective of the zones in PDP. Investigation however showed that electioneering has begun in earnest with Atiku’s supporters, one of whom is Dr Raymond Dokpesi, pushing hard for his candidacy.

Though the National Chairman of the party has been zoned to the North-Central, feelers from the convention have confirmed that every eligible party member can vie for the exalted office from any zone.

Interestingly, too, the northern establishment has launched itself into the challenge of shopping for an effective leader. Its argument is that whoever wants to be president in 2023 must defend the interest of the region, because according to its leadership, the region has not fared well under Buhari despite being from there.

In March, the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) and the Arewa Consultative Forum ACF) with other 16 northern groups had met at Arewa House under the umbrella of the Northern Political Summit to discuss the future of the region. At the end of the summit, the groups resolved that it would not support any power shift to the South rather it would support any candidate that can protect the interest of the North. This position has also been echoed by the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), which has consistently maintained that the North should continue even after Buhari’s tenure.

According to CNG spokesperson, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman, North has been worsted under Buhari. “Show me where the region has benefited from all these years Buhari is in power. In fac,t even before the coming of Buhari, the region has been lagging behind in almost every aspect. The current reality is disturbing, because if we give power to the rest of the country, we will become second class,” he said.

Feelers within the Northern establishment showed some hopeful presidential aspirants have been shortlisted irrespective party and zone. A member of the NEF who wouldn’t like his name in print disclosed that the search for a young and resourceful presidential hopeful had started in the region.

It was gathered that some of the presidential hopefuls, apart from Atiku and Tinubu, being considered are Sokoto governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal; Ekiti governor, Kayode Fayemi; Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo; Former Speaker Yakubu Dogara; Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim; Kogi governor, Yahaya Bello; Borno governor, Babagana Zulum; Kaduna governor Nasir El-rufai; Rochas Okoracha and Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Others are Gombe governor, Ibrahim Dankombo; Kashim Shettima, among others.

Despite the long list of northern candidates, findings showed that there are people who believe that owing to unrest in the region it will be difficult for North to retain power.

They believed that North is polarised into religious and tribal enclaves, pointing at the recent reaction by the Middle Belt Forum (MBF) that power should rotate to three zones of North and South.

President of the forum, Dr Pogu Bitrus, had maintained that the idea of a monolithic North dictating for where power will go is dead and buried, stressing that the Northern insistence on where power should go in 2023 could capsize the ship of the Nigerian state.

He argued further that by resorting to the constitutional provisions as the basis of rejecting power shift, the Northern establishment is simply being clever by a half and only attempting to hide behind a finger.

Even though they are not categorical on their preferred candidate for the polls, whether a young or an old presidential candidate, the forum opined that the presidential ticket should be zoned to their zone for the sake of equity and fairness.

But in apparent reaction to the Middle Belt calls, Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmad said in a recent interview that the North usually speaks with one voice if it comes to taking a stance on the presidency. Urging Nigerians not to be deceived by the current division in the region, he said: “Don›t be deceived by the comments coming out from the zones. If you look at the position taken by the region since during the time of Tafawa Balewa to Shagari era to date, it has been the same. When the real politicking starts, all the intrigues and manipulations of the power play will be for the interest of the region.”

But in his own submission, the president of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, Yerima Shettima, said considering the critical time that the country has found itself, those above 60 years should forget about the presidency as it is people with sound economic background and doggedness that can rule and unite the country in the face of its ethnic and religious division.

But with the recent call by one of the elders in the region, Tanko Yakasai for Nigerians to support Tinubu while some other northern leaders are visibly rooting for Atiku, more permutations have begun. But only time knows who will eventually be accepted by the region and the entire country to lead in 2023. For now, the intrigues continue.

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