24 hours is truly long in the unpredictable game of politics. But ceteris paribus, Mushin-born Jide ‘Jandor’ Adediran, is going to fly the flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for Lagos State governor, next year. He would just be topping 45 years by three months. Populist, crowd-pulling, young, wealthy, ambitious and a technocrat journalist, he cuts the perfect image for a party seeking a revival. He moved out of APC for the singular purpose of wrestling power away from his former party. PDP welcomed him with a widened palm, for that singular purpose. Yoruba will say the one seeking husband, has met the one seeking wife.
But things are not always equal in politics. In fact, there is a problem when all things are equal. Greed, selfishness, self-preservation and class interest will always see to permutations and projections coming up as mutatis mutandis.
Factors that comfortably place Jandor right on the PDP’s ticket today, might mutate tomorrow and need changing. In recent time, deposed Governor Akinwunmi Ambode from Epe, has been teasing another run for Alausa, gyrating to social media rhythm and being forceful in political comments. He is still in APC, but it is transfer season in the political arena. With the way the governing party is conducting its affairs nationally, where a clique is no longer making a pretense of its dominant hold on the party, only time, will tell where the star players would play in next election season, just a year away. Ambode claimed he had received political sense after being dumped out of power, three years back. What if it is Godwin Obaseki’s kind of sense. Moving out now, won’t count too much against him. At least, nobody would accuse him of desperation to cling to power at all costs. What if he moves?
Having been governor for four year, with his own people, king-size grudge, and a more recognizable name and face, than Jandor, if Akinwunmi wants to test might again with those who rag-dolled him the last time, factors might change in his favour.
The other consideration that might be bigger than Ambode and Jandor, would have to be the older of the two Jides himself, Governor Babajide Sanwoolu. What if the rumour about him, coming in to complete the second term of the Christian faith which Ambode is believed to have represented, persists to the point of conviction that a Muslim candidate should fly the APC flag in 2023? Yes, the influential Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) of the ruling establishment in the state, had denied a plot to excuse the governor for Muri Okunola, the Head of Service, on the 2023 ticket, but those who can see ahead, are telling Ibijoke’s husband that the cane used in flogging his predecessor isn’t discarded, but tucked in the ceiling. Those not buying the denial of the GAC, which is mainly answerable to the apex leader, Bola Tinubu, are asking the discerning to go back to the said presser and read again, this time, between the lines. The most discomforting of the lines in the presser, is the body saying there was no plan ‘for now’ to change the governor. What if situations throw up a reason or reasons later, and he is asked to step aside for someone else, maybe not from the Justice Forum, the group within the ruling party, pushing the religious narrative.
Yoruba will say the one who falls into the ditch is a lesson to others. Seeing how Ambode was shoved aside for him, Sanwoolu is expected to have learnt a couple of tricks if push eventually comes to shove and come, comes to become. He would be the biggest of the three fish, out of APC’s river. If Sanwoolu is suddenly available for PDP to poach, the opposition ticket should be available a la carte for him, without discountenancing the usual braggadocio of ‘we are not cheap o, we are just rescuing you’ as witnessed with Obaseki in Edo State.
If Ambode and Sanwoolu aren’t available, no fish from APC, would be bigger than Jandor in Lagos PDP’s pond and because he was carefully and deliberately hooked by Bukola Saraki and co, his aspiration, can be concluded to have scaled the nomination stage. It, however, remains to see if Lagos voters will buy his Lagos4Lagos message, especially the deliberately-twisted interpretation by his former allies in APC, that he wants to be governor of aboriginal Lagosians alone, being Awori from Badagry, despite explaining severally the slogan meant Lagos wealth should be for her residents and not going into private pockets or taken elsewhere for the purposes of political expansionism. If his former friends in APC succeeded in reconstructing his message to be anti-settlers in the state, he would be getting result before the match as street boys would couch failure.
But if Jandor should lead PDP to torpedo APC in Lagos, that would be an upset of earthquake proportion. No, it won’t be because the Tinubu ruling establishment isn’t vulnerable enough to beat. It is because those who seek his exit from power haven’t found the formula to beat him. He is the boogeyman of the state politics; the only prominent godfather yet to taste defeat since democracy returned in 1999. That should count for something. In the combat world, he would be the ultimate, undisputed champion. Two Nigerians are currently wearing that title; Israel Adesanya and Kamaru Usman. They used to be three, before Anthony Joshua was dethroned. That Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk, found the formula to gradually take Joshua apart using the sweet science of boxing. While our man was going all brawn, the sleek Ukrainian employed and deployed brain.
Yoruba will say, ogbon ju agbara lo (wisdom is superior to strength). Tinubu’s dominance of Lagos politics is a riddle that can only be intelligently solved. Say what you like, his staying power, is the stuff of legend and regardless of 2023 outcomes, objective researchers and scholars should find the durability of the ruling empire, captivating and scholarly.
Whether it is the older of the Jides or another fellow that makes the APC ticket, it is certain that the behemoth Jandor and his internal and external backers would be confronting is the apex leader himself. Something tells me, his retirement isn’t now.
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