2023: Illogicality of exclusive APC presidential candidate from South-East or South-South Nigeria

At his media chat late last year, President Muhammadu Buhari said he had his own preferred candidate for the 2023 election, but declined to give a clue, saying the candidate may be harmed or even be eliminated before the time. That statement not only heightened the permutation among the aspirants in the ruling APC, but it equally charged the atmosphere that politicians and stakeholders across the country had to work under.

Less than 48 hours after the chat, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos and chieftain of APC surfaced in Aso Rock to “brief the President and inform the nation about his presidential ambition in 2023.”

A week after, Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi state followed suit, though the kites have also been flying with different colours in the other political parties, last week, rumours from high quarters of associates of the Federal Government and political gladiators expressed the possibility of the President throwing his weight behind either a South-South or South East candidate. Prominent among them are Rotimi Amaechi, Ogbonnaya Onu, Dave Umahi and most recently, Godwin Emefiele. It is rumoured that this choice will be narrowed to these two regions.

The illogicality of this choice is more than obvious.  This goes a long way to expose the naivety and lack of requisite political arithmetic (logic) in the brains of those who made these propositions to the President.

The record of the support the party enjoys from each and every geo-political zone of the country is very open and glaring. In the 2015 presidential election, the APC got 2.411 million votes from the North Central; 2.848 million from the North East; the North West gave the party 7.115 million votes; while the South East gave 198,778 votes. The South West brought 2.433 million, and the South South 418, 590.

In the 2019 presidential election as well, the North West brought 5.995 million votes to the APC; the North East gave 3.465 million; the North Central gave 2.465 million votes; South West mustered 2.036 million; South East gave 403, 968 and South South brought 1.051 million votes to the party.

Also, the recent elections in Anambra and Abuja have given us a clue on how the 2023 election will most likely be, at least for now since the country is ethno-religious division  is coming to the fore now more than any time  before.  For instance, the Anambra elections where Federal might was deployed, yet the APC came third.

The APC could not find its feet in the South East state, with APGA emerging victorious over APC. This is an indication that the South East is obviously not an APC friendly zone. This has been manifesting even before the coming of APC, in 2003, 2007 and 2011 when Buhari paired himself with one of their sons to fly the presidential flag of the ANPP.

The election in Abuja which took place on the 12th of February is yet another indication of the possible outcome of the 2023 general elections. If one takes a closer look at the Geo-political composition of the six Area Councils, it is easy to conclude that it is a reflection of what is expected in the larger country. The Abuja election is a litmus test conducted to give a clue of what should be expected in other geo-political zones of the federation outside the federal capital come 2023.

The analysis below further elaborates my argument where it could be seen clearly that Area Councils that have predominant composition of South Easterners, and South Southerners  have supported and voted for PDP candidates while the APC candidates turned out victorious in areas where there  are largely composition of Northerners and South Westerners .

Analysis of party against geo-political domination

AMAC:  PDP    Largely S/East            A reflection of SE/SS

Bwari:   PDP    Largely S/East            A reflection of SE/SS

Kuje:     PDP    Largely S/East            A reflection of SE/SS

Abaji:    APC    Largely composition of N/Central, N/West and S/West         A reflection of NC/NW/SW

Kwali:   APC    Largely composition of N/Central, N/West and S/West         A reflection of NC/NW/SW

Gwagwalada:   APC    Largely composition of N/Central, N/West and S/West         A reflection of NC/NW/SW

A – Northern Composition

B – Eastern & South South Composition

C – Western Composition

If the analysis above is anything to go by, the idea of ignoring the North Central and Southwest in the choice of a presidential candidate for APC which are no doubt the strongest support base of the party will be a miscalculation and an illogical political exercise .

The best option for APC to be on the track to electoral victory is to expand the option of including the North Central and the South West where they have five governors of APC out of the six states in each zone making them the undisputable, strongest hold of the party rather than excluding them as opposed to the South East and South South where they have two and one  APC Governors respectively out of the 11 States in their zones.

The least strategy for the APC-led government to adopt is to allow an open and free contest for the most credible and popular choice to emerge but never narrow the ticket to a South East or South South option. Narrowing the choice to South East and South will be political suicide!

The consequences for such a decision may be a serious revolt and possible decamp from those strong APC areas which would see their loyalty and consistency in following the party as a wasteful and unappreciated exercise. The conclusion would be that APC would have kissed  goodbye to any chances of victory come 2023 should it adopt the idea of narrowing the presidential ticket to only South East and South South.

Saad, a political strategist and commentator, writes from Abuja, Nigeria.

YOU SHOULD NOT MISS THESE HEADLINES FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE

We Have Not Had Water Supply In Months ― Abeokuta Residents

In spite of the huge investment in the water sector by the government and international organisations, water scarcity has grown to become a perennial nightmare for residents of Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. This report x-rays the lives and experiences of residents in getting clean, potable and affordable water amidst the surge of COVID-19 cases in the state… Illogicality of exclusive APC  Illogicality of exclusive APC

Selfies, video calls and Chinese documentaries: The things you’ll meet onboard Lagos-Ibadan train

The Lagos-Ibadan railway was inaugurated recently for a full paid operation by the Nigerian Railway Corporation after about a year of free test-run. Our reporter joined the train to and fro Lagos from Ibadan and tells his experience in this report… Illogicality of exclusive APC  Illogicality of exclusive APC