Interview

2023 Elections: Why Tinubu must restore Nigerians’ confidence, hope in governance —Don

ChukwuemekaJaja Nwanegbo is a professor of Conflict, Security Governance, and Comparative Politics at the Nnamdi Azikwe University, Awka, Anambra State. He speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on the crisis within the Labour Party, 2023 elections and the various litigation trailing the polls, among other ssues.

While the litigation instituted by the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, in the court, continues, the Obidient party has broken into two factions. Many observers have claimed that the crisis within the party will likely affect Obi’s ongoing efforts to reclaim what they call his “stolen mandate” at the court. What is your take on this?

Well, there is no correlation between the internal conflict within the party and the reclaiming effort of Obi’s ‘stolen mandate’ in court. After Obi’s governorship election in Anambra State, within the first three years of Chris Ngige’s administration, almost everyone in the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) collapsed into the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and this did not truncate the legal battle that went on then at the election tribunal. But the moment Obi regained his mandate in Anambra State, the people all returned to build the APGA that we know today. And it will likely be the same this time because such political behavior is peculiar to Nigerian politics. Meanwhile, if you look at the case in the court, you will see that the LP is only a party in the suit as we have Peter Obi, who is the first and then others aside the LP. So even if the party should pull out of the case, because one person in the party decides to take a different position, I still believe such a move won’t change anything or affect the verdict of the court at the end of the day if Obi and the rest parties involved can genuinely prove their points beyond every reasonable doubt. Also, I don’t think Obi is relying on the party to help him to reclaim the mandate.

But with history revealing that the apex court in Nigeria has never upturned any presidential victory announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), do you see any light at the end of the tunnel for Obi in the ongoing case at the Presidential Election Tribunal?

I do not think the Supreme Court not upturning the outcome of any past presidential election in Nigeria will determine what will happen in every subsequent situation. Indeed, it is not just within the power of the Supreme Court to just on their own upturn any INEC declaration, it is the ability of the litigant to properly prove his case beyond a reasonable doubt. If he is not able to do this, the apex court will not give justice to him. I want to believe that the judiciary as presently constituted still has something in it that can make it pronounce judgment rightly if there is a case on the ground for them to rely on in making such a declaration. So until it is proven otherwise, I will not want to make a blanket submission that the apex court does not give justice. But as a conscious optimist, I am watching the situation.

Recently, the Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), NgoziOkonjo-Iweala, said the recent political incident has made many people, especially those of South-East extraction, to lose faith and hope in governance in Nigeria. What do you have to say to this?

I should go beyond that because the loss of faith in governance by the people of South-East did not start with the 2023 elections. Of course, one thing that is usually technically connected is governance and people’s faith. Even before now, if you have been following the trends of activities in Nigerian politics, you will see that there was a particular time when there was a rise in the agitation by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the people of the South-East because the Nigerian government has not been the treating the region fairly. I am not one of those persons that carry that as a cause, because I always believe that the situation will take care of itself at the appropriate time. However, the people of the South-East have not only felt marginalisation, but they have also expressed it in different dimensions: in writings, discourses, and all. So what Okonjo-Iweala said is not far from the truth.

You see, what came out of the 2023 elections is a marvel that will likely be a thing of worry for any political watcher in the country. All of them, things that ought not to come out again all began to rear their heads. We started seeing some records and elements of ethnic profiling, various proclamations, threats along ethnic dimensions, and violence against ethnic groups, all of which are things that Nigeria ought to have outgrown by now. Things like this will no doubt make people lose confidence in the entire system. Meanwhile, there is nothing as destructive to the psyche of the people when they see that the system is not accommodating them properly. So, I believe the Nigerian state needs to do more to earn the confidence and truth of the people.

But should Obi fail to win in court, how do you think Bola Tinubu’s presidency can win back the lost love and confidence of the South-Easterners?

My problem is that the Al Progressives Congress (APC) government in the last eight years never even took any step to win the confidence of the South-East people. I will say that it was the eight years of Buhari’s administration that generated the depth of agitations for secession that came from the South-East. Though I am not one of those persons that believe that appointing someone from a region into the office of Chief of Army Staff amount to fair representation, I feel taking some other concrete steps to win the confidence of the people of a region is one thing that can pacify them. But most importantly, when we say winning back the confidence, I don’t think it should be just those of the South-Easterners alone, but of the entire Nigerians, because the 2023 voting was a broad-based one as Nigerians of all extractions voted and have since then protested that their votes were not judiciously used in the pronouncement of winning and losing. So what Tinubu’s government needs to do if Obi couldn’t get back the mandate is to appeal to the entirety of Nigerians in a bid to restore their lost confidence, caused by the declared result of the presidential election. This is because legitimacy must be rooted on the principle of fairness, equity, and justice. Don’t forget that Obi didn’t contest a South-East election, but a Nigerian election. So, it is the confidence, faith, and hope of all Nigerians that the incoming administration must make conscious efforts to restore. That is my take on this.

But do you see Tinubu’s presidency reducing or escalating the agitations from the South-East?

Well, the only person that can answer this is a soothsayer. As a political scientist, I only look at the political situation and climate and then draw my conclusion from the realities. But if I must advise the Tinubu presidency rightly, I believe that globally, justice, fairness, and good governance have always been the best way to return people online. If the incoming government can work towards ensuring this, I believe we will achieve a positive result, because I don’t think the people agitating are doing so based on us and them. I believe their fight is borne out of the government not doing what it ought to do duly for the region. So, if the government can look critically at the triggers of the agitations and address them constructively without thinking that merely throwing one appointment to the region will douse the anger and calls for secession, there will be a good result.

With the way the conduct of the 2023 elections was not highly rated, how do you think INEC can redeem its image, especially before the global community and European observers, who felt the poll was violently shaded?

There is absolutely nothing they can do. This is because what we are talking about is not a thing of image building, but of performance. If the election in Nigeria can retrogress to the stage we saw during the 2023 polls, there is nothing like getting an image back for INEC. What we saw in the last elections was close to what we experienced in 2007. We all saw that Goodluck Jonathan as a sitting president lost the 2015 presidency to Buhari and Nigerians never said anything as bad as we have heard from them after the last presidential election in February. Despite the huge investment that went into the conduct of the polls and the promised improvements they said we would see. That is in addition to the technological enhancement introduced. But take a look at the outcome of the election, which has been widely disputed. So I don’t think it is something INEC can fix through public relations or media campaigns. It must be something that people will be able to see, feel and touch, which is impossible for now. But maybe when another election comes, they can use that to correct the failings of the 2023 polls. But then. Let me also make this very clear. In the build-up to the last elections, the kind of changes that were made by the APC administration to INEC had given a sign of what the outcome of the election would be. Some sets of Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) were appointed before the election. And those that were replaced were almost all the firebrand hands that we have among the RECs in INEC then. But the APC government replaced these people with politicians. And once you do this, you have clearly shown the direction of your policy and movement. But that was what we experienced. So, it was a coup plotted by INEC staff, the government in power, and even the security agencies. It was a concerted activity that had a lot of persons and organs involved. And this poses a huge problem. But until it is solved, Nigerians will have no option but to be in their moody position.

READ ALSO FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE