Zoning and the power play of the 9th Assembly

The battle for who gets what in the 9th National Assembly is becoming intense as the 8th National legislature winds down. Group Politics Editor, TAIWO ADISA, who has followed the trends in the legislature, examines the geopolitical power play and the shape of the next Assembly.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) has been vociferous in its defence of what it called party supremacy in the build-up to the inauguration of the 9th National Assembly on June 11.National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole has, at different for a, expressed the readiness of the party to ensure the election of the presiding officers of the Senate and the House of Representatives from the fold of the ruling party. He has come hard on party members who insist on equity and ask for zoning arrangement that would work for all.

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In March and April, at different dinners held at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, Oshiomhole announced Senator Ahmad Lawan and Honourable Femi Gbajabiamila as anointed candidates for Senate President and Speaker of the 9th Assembly respectively. He said that the party has adopted the two candidates and declared that his members must equally back them.

But the ruling APC, in announcing its anointed candidates, failed to go the whole hog, thus paving the way for an endless battle of the geopolitical zones. The party also did not learn from the tendencies already weaved around zoning in the previous administrations.

From 1999, when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took charge, its leaders perfected a zoning arrangement that worked for all the six geopolitical zones. The position of president and vice-president are allotted to different zones as required by the constitution. Then the post of Senate President and Speaker also go to the zones, leaving the posts of deputy Senate President and Deputy Speaker to get to the two remaining zones.

The essence of that arrangement, according to insiders in the party was such that the dictates and intendment of the 1999 Constitution in relation to Section 14 (3), which states the Federal Character Principle would be fulfilled. The section states: “The composition of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few State or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that Government or in any of its agencies.”

Incidentally, the executive arm of government, the legislature and the Judiciary warehouse the topmost positions in the order of national Protocol. The President is the number one citizen in the order of protocol, followed by the Vice President and the Senate President is the number three citizen.  The Speaker is number four citizen followed by the Chief Justice of the Federation as number five on the protocol and then the Deputy Senate President as number six and the Deputy Speaker as number seven on the order of government business.

For those who want a religious adherence to this constitutional provision, the six elective top positions should just be made to go round the zones, while the Judiciary is largely insulated from the politics of political configuration.

That procedure was there from 1999 to 2007, when the number one seat was occupied by the South-West, the number two went to North-East, number three went to South-East, number four was occupied by the North-West. The North-Central had number six and the South-South had the number seven office on the list of protocol.

That arrangement got altered in 2007 when the North-West got the number one seat, the South-South secured the number two slot, the North-Central got the number three, South-West had the number four, while number six went to the South-East and number seven went to the North-East.

In 2011, the major alteration to the equity in that arrangement got was witnessed, even though the PDP was still in control of the National Assembly. In that era, the South-South got the number one slot, with the North-West getting the number two. The number three slot remained in the North-Central, while the number four was again picked by the North-West. The South-East got the number six and number seven positions as well.

It would, however, be recalled that the lop-sidedness of the 2011 arrangement opened up the government of then President Goodluck Jonathan to criticisms and accusations of marginalising the South-Western part of the country. But the turn out of the governance arrangement of 2011 was basically not the making of the PDP. The party had in an attempt to maintain its spread and zoning configuration zoned the post of Speaker to the South-West and Deputy Speaker to the North-East. A rebellion within the ranks, fuelled largely by opposition elements of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) ensured that the rebellion pulled through and the zoning arrangement got truncated.

Despite the benefit of hindsight and the knowledge of the nation’s contemporary political experience, the current power holders have, however, continued exhibit some form of tardiness on the zoning formula.

In 2015, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the majority seat in the National Assembly as well as the Presidency of Nigeria, the party embarked on a half- hearted attempt to replicate the zoning principle as operated by the PDP. Its stakeholders converged for a National Caucus meeting in Abuja but ended up allowing political intrigues to swallow the intent. Feelers from the meeting indicated that a comprehensive zoning arrangement was put together by then then National Chairman of the Party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. The same was said to have been ratified. The said arrangement zoned the Senate Presidency to the North Central and the post of Speaker to the South-West. Further intrigues and power play however ensured that the communique of that meeting was kept under the table till date.  It was gathered that some leaders of the party who were intent on undercutting the other leaders ensured that Odigie-Oyegun kept the communique under wraps while politicking and campaigning for the different positions then became an all comers affair.

The misstep on zoning by the party in 2015 allowed party stakeholders to diversify the argument and got things out of the reach of the core party leaders. For instance, those who joined the APC from the PDP, called N-PDP argued that equity means that one of their own takes one of the available top six positions, as they claimed that the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the ACN have already secured the number one and number two slots. At the end of the voting in the Assembly, the N-PDP faction of the rainbow APC coalition had picked the number three and four positions on the order of government protocol, while a hybrid Senate had also been foisted on the Red chamber.

In the build up to the inauguration of the National Assembly in June 2019, the APC, which again secured majority seats in the two chambers of the Assembly appeared not to have learnt its lessons. The party, rather than release a comprehensive zoning arrangement which would lessen competition among its members and reduce tension, has refused to do so. It rather opted to pick out the number three and four posts, while apparently encouraging a free for all for the remaining positions in the chambers.

So far the North West has stuck out its neck for the position of Deputy Senate president in the Senate, while at the start of the campaigns, three candidates from the North-West also indicated interest for the Speakership of the House of Representatives in the 9th Assembly. Already, a zone that produced the President should no longer be seen vying for any of the top six positions on protocol list anymore.

The battle for the Senate Presidency in the incoming Senate is also not spared of the controversy. The North-East is believed to have got the nod of the party for that position but at the start of the campaigns, the North-Central also indicated interest.

The APC had announced Senator Ahmad Lawan as its preferred choice for the nation’s number three seat, but two other members of the party from the same zone are eyeing the seat as well. They are Senator Ali Ndume and Senator Danjuma Goje. Right now, it is not clear if the candidate from the North Central has demobilised his campaign. But the battle for the post of Deputy Senate President is becoming more interesting, as all the five geopolitical zones of the country including the South-West, South-South, South East, North West and North-Central had indicated interest shortly after the elections. While only Senator Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa West) from the North Central was linked to the seat of Senate President in March, candidates from the five other zones showed interest in the Deputy Senate position. From the South West you have all the ranking APC Senators showing interest openly or secretly. The nine raking lawmakers from the zone include  former Senate Leader Senator Teslim Folarin(Oyo Central);  Senators Ajayi Boroffice (Ondo North); Remi Tinubu (Lagos Central); , Adeola Olamilekan (Lagos West) Ibikunle Amosu(Ogun Central); Lekan Mustapha(Ogun East);  Fatai Buhari(Oyo North); Olubunmi Adetunmbi (Ekiti North) and Opeyemi Bamidele (Ekiti central). The argument is that zonal peculiarities, including need for religious balancing, could ensure that the post falls on the laps of any of the ranking lawmakers.

The South-South with only Senator Francis Alimikhena from Ondo North and Senator Ovie Omo-Agege from Delta North was also mentioned in the race for the Deputy Senate President. The South-East with Senator-elect Orji is also lending its voice to the race for the Deputy Senate President just as Senator Kabiru Gaya from Kano in the North-West had also shown interest in the Senate’s number two position, which occupies the nation’s number six.

But the confusion around zoning is more pronounced in the House of Representatives where the position of Speaker of the House is the issue. The Speaker occupies the nation’s number four position. He is also the Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly.

As things stand, the battle for the post of Speaker is fiercely being fought between the South-West and North-Central. The North-Central is claiming that the South-West would be having too much is it secures the number four seat plus the number two already secured through Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The South-East is also putting forward at least two candidates for the post of Speaker, while the battle for the post of Deputy Speaker is hotting up between a mix of candidates from North-West and North Central.

Besides the substantive presiding officer positions in the coming Assembly, the battle is also out there on the sharing of the principal officer positions. There is the Senate Majority Leader and his Deputy as well as the Senate Majority While and his Deputy. The four positions, expectedly will go to the zones that lose out in the race for the four presiding officer positions.

The question that would be thrown up in filing the position of principal officers is that of ranking.  The zones with large number of ranking or returning members would surely have the biggest headache, unless the party wades in with quality advice that could help maintain sanity.

The South-West for instance, with nine ranking ACP members would have issues determining who gets maybe the post of Majority Leader, if it is not zoned to North-Central. For instance, among the South-West Senators are a former Majority Leader, a fourth time member and another three term member. The others are two term members while one is a ranking member from the House of Representatives. Another zone that would face such selection crisis in determining principal officers is the North-West, with a good number of ranking Senators and then the South-South and South-East, which had majority of PDP lawmakers returned.