Zero-hour battle for APC ticket

THE uncanny battle for the soul of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will attain a fever pitch few hours from now. 

Hundreds of party delegates will converge on the Eagles Square in the federal capital, Abuja, for the presidential primary of the party. 

In the last 72 hours, the party has literally been shaken by whirlwind arising from frenetic horse-trading and backstabbing by a few vested interests in the prized ticket for February 25, 2023 president election. 

News that the screening committee set up by the party had submitted its report and cleared 13 of aspirants for the ticket sparked a fresh round of claims and counterclaims of stepping down by one aspirant or another. 

Outbursts by one of the aspirants, Senator Bola Tinubu, over the role he played in bringing about the Buhari presidency into office and why he believes it is his time to be the next president of the country raised the bar in the intense lobbying, engagements and bitter struggle for the APC ticket. 

All this has metarmorphosed into permutations on the fate of the remaining 13 contenders for the ticket. 

Deft moves by pro and antiestablishment forces have upped the ante with regional power blocs providing political backups. 

Suffice to note that some issues have underscored the desperation in the bid by various aspirants and their backers to gain superior advantage and position. 

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Those issues include the attempt to impose a candidate on the party; emergence of Atiku in PDP as a factor; demand for southern president in the context of power shift and rotatory presidency, as well as voting strength across the zones and regional political behaviours. 

Added to this is the likely Plan B of those aspirants who might not be satisfied with the outcome of the two-day primary from June 6 as speculations are rife that one or two of the contestants could seek an existing alternate party to pursue their ambition. 

Above all, there is the question about if the APC will be the same after the conduct of the primary. 

In the meantime, with 24 hours to the primary, a few of the 13 aspirants appear to be in a tight contest for the APC ticket. 

These are national leader of the party, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Vice-President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo; President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan; Ekiti State governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi and his Kogi State counterpart, Governor Yahaya Bello, as well as the erstwhile Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba. 

Although Tinubu is rated as having the enablement and financial war chest to clinch the ticket, recent developments are not so favourable to him. 

The perceived establishment angst against his ambition led to his outbursts and tirades against President Muhammadu Buhari during his campaign for votes in Abeokuta, Ogun State. 

Notwithstanding, he is believed to have the wherewithal, including logistics that he could leverage on before and after the primary. 

But some party members are afraid he might be too assertive if he becomes president because of his independent mind. 

The controversy triggered by his comments on the Buhari presidency when he addressed delegates from Ogun State last Thursday is being seen in certain quarters as another albatross in his bid. 

Vice-President Osinbajo is said to enjoy the support of youths, professionals and young entrepreneurs, especially beneficiaries of various federal government empowerment schemes. 

He is also said to have the backing of some influential individuals in government circles who wanted continuity of the Buhari administration. 

Above all, he is said to have raised the standard in government with his presentation culminating in a paradigm shift in public perception of politics as a haven for the dregs in society. 

Nonetheless, some of his critics claim one of the obstacles before the vice-president is the animosity between his camp and that of Tinubu, who appointed him commissioner in Lagos State and his alleged religious extremism which his supporters have vehemently denied.

For Governor Yahaya Bello, he is savouring massive support from the burgeoning population of youths, gender-based organisations, students, academia, artisans and peasants. Apart from his youthful age, Bello is also the only contender from the NorthCentral for the APC ticket. 

Though his political rivals argue that his young age and experience may be insufficient to solve the huge problems that Nigeria now represents, his supporters, however, claim he has the requisite capacity to lead the country by smoothening all the rough ethnic cleavages as he in Kogi State. 

He is also said to be a loyal supporter of the president. Though Ahmad Lawan joined the presidential race late, he appears to have wormed himself into the hearts of many through his personal effort and that of his supporters in the political circles. His ability to strike a delicate balance between the executive and the legislative arms of government is said to have endured him to the perceptive strata of the populace, because, in their view, the feat has guaranteed relative stability, harmony and progress in the business of government. 

He is considered to be one of the few aspirants with a bright chance of picking the APC ticket at the primary, especially with widespread claims that he has the backing of power brokers from the North and within the top establishment. 

But, what his promoters regard as his achievements of mutual respect by the two arms is perceived by his critics as a mere smokescreen, claiming the legislature has become rubberstamp and lame duck under his leadership of the National Assembly. 

Honourable Rotimi Amaechi, who was the Minister for Transportation until last month, is also ranked among the main contenders for the ticket. He is said to have endeared himself to the president because of his performance in his ministry, coupled with his loyalty to the establishment. 

The Rivers State-born former governor is equally said to enjoy the support of some traditional institutions in the North, especially for brokering the railway and university projects in the region. Somehow, his opponents said he bears the cross of the instability of the APC in the rich oil bearing state, which has remained in the firm grip of PDP and that he does not appear to enjoy popular support in the South-South region. 

Similarly, former governor of Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, is seen as belonging to the set of high-flying aspirants for APC ticket. He is widely acknowledged to be the closest ally of President Buhari, with their relationship spanning the military era to date. 

Amosun remains a key factor in Ogun APC, more than three years after he left office at the duration of two terms of four years each. 

However, cat-and-mouse relationship persists among APC faithful in the state over who controls the party structure. 

With a few months to the end of his tenure as the governor of Ekiti State, Dr Fayemi is also being topped as a favourite for the APC ticket. 

Besides his intimidating credentials are vast experience, versatility and exposure locally and globally through quality professional engagements, and research and development. 

As the chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), his supporters say Dr Fayemi has a comparative advantage to latch on, even though some pundits envisaged that he may have a hard nut to crack in the giddy battle for the APC ticket.

A major factor said to be working in his favour is that he has a seamless relationship with all the major tendencies in Yorubaland, regardless of their political and cultural attachments. 

So far, no one has been able to deconstruct the body language of Mr President on issues surrounding who picks the coveted ticket of the party. 

Neither has anyone succeeded in deciphering or reading his lips on the matter. 

However, the next 48 hours are crucial to the APC, on things to come as the parties prepare for the 2023 general election.