Yes, Nigeria is 59, will be 60 next year •What does the future hold?

In 2010, former president of the United States of America, Barack Obama, said that Nigeria “is critical to the rest of the continent and if Nigeria does not get it right, Africa will really not make more progress.” This speaks of the expectations of the world for Nigeria. Across the globe, Nigeria is perceived as the natural leader of Africa. The world has hinged its hope of Africa’s freedom from stagnation, underdevelopment, illiteracy, hunger and unemployment on Nigeria. The general belief is that if Nigeria should extricate herself from these ills, she would free other African countries from the shackles.

The hope is not misplaced given the country’s natural resources. Nigeria is the most populated country on the continent, it is also one of the most endowed in the world. Nigeria is rich in crude oil, natural gas, gold, bitumen, tin, coal, iron ore, limestone, niobium, lead and zinc. The country is blessed with an arable land which facilitates the cultivation of both cash and food crops. Nigeria also has a stock of great people who stand out in different aspects of human endeavours. This is a rare combination that should have made Nigeria a superpower. But in spite of all these endowments and the derivable benefits, misery has become the permanent partner of the average citizen.

Nigeria has become a paradox; so wealthy, yet so poor; so endowed, yet so deprived. Nigeria makes more money than many countries of the world but is unfortunately ranked among the poorest because many Nigerians live below the poverty line as they earn less than two dollars a day. According to the Brookings Institution in a report, The Start of a New Poverty Narrative, Nigeria is now home to the highest number of people living in extreme poverty on the globe. The report by the United States of America-based nonprofit public policy organization, states that “At the end of May 2018, our trajectories suggest that Nigeria had about 87 million people in extreme poverty, compared with India’s 73 million. What is more, extreme poverty in Nigeria is growing by six people every minute, while poverty in India continues to fall.”

NSE revenue dropped to N7.67bn in 2018 over uncertainties ― Onyema

Similarly, a United Nations report on Nigeria’s Common Country Analysis, says youth unemployment is 42 per cent, while the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) puts the number of out of school children at over 10.5million. Infant mortality rate is 85.8 of 1000 live births, while under-five mortality rate is 137.9 of live births. Malnutrition prevalence, according to the UN, ranges between approximately 46.9 per cent in the South West to 74.3 per cent in North West and North East.

So serious is the situation in the country that Nigerians of all ages are dying to leave their fatherland. Some people have, as a result of the drive to exit the country, been killed in the desert, some have been turned into sex slaves in Libya and other countries, some lost their lives while trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Europe, while others are doing time in various prisons in Europe for getting into the countries illegally. Quite recently, Nigerians who had migrated to South Africa were victims of xenophobic attacks by South Africans.

But this was not so in the beginning. Nigeria was not the world’s laughing stock in the beginning; neither was she the poster boy for failure and misery. Nigeria beat France in the race to establishing a television station in 1959. Poverty level was very low at independence in 1960, according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. Unemployment rate was quite negligible in 1960. At independence, the education system was excellent, just as the healthcare system. Security of life and property was assured at independence. If Nigerians had to travel out of the country for anything in the 1960s, they were quick to return home. But not anymore, life in Nigeria has lost its luster. Living in Nigeria is hellish. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace in its 2019 Global peace Index report, Nigeria is one of the most dangerous countries in the world. So bad is the health sector that Nigerians rank globally among health tourists as they seek healing in different hospitals from Ghana to Togo, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Israel, United Kingdom, France and the United States of America. The education system has deteriorated to the level that even university professors do not trust the schools where they lecture to impart the right education to their wards, so they either send them to private universities within the country or universities in foreign lands.

How did we arrive here? Why has Nigeria, with all the treasures locked in her belly, been unable to shake off the ‘underdeveloped country’ tag?

Nigeria’s slide from the sublime to the ridiculous started with the failure of the country to plan its development. This is the major reason for the poor economy, deplorable infrastructure deficit, high level of poverty and unemployment as well as the rising out of school children syndrome.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a National Economic Development Plan analyses the country’s objectives and priorities in relation to all sectors such as heavy industry, manufacture of goods, production of food, supply of services, tourism, in response to well-identified national needs. A national development plan will propose and justify an overall plan in which the role of individual sectors can be seen in context.

When countries plan and work their plans, they become great. On the contrary, when a country fails to plan, the only way for it to go is down. Therefore, a national development plan gives a nation the opportunity to channel its resources as well as the energies of its people in the areas of its priority. This makes it possible for the country to build momentum in specific areas and to also position itself for competitive advantage in certain areas.

Although national development planning started before Nigeria attained independence, the pre-independence plan was handled by the colonialists. The first post-independence national development plan was between 1962 and 1968. The plan had among other objectives, increase in the standard of living of the populace, growing the economy by four per cent, target saving of about 15 per cent of the GDP, the avoidance of balance of payment crises, the development of agricultural, industrial, transport and manpower development.

The second national development plan, which was between 1970 and 1974, focused on the reconstruction of facilities damaged during the civil war of 1967 to 1970, the establishment of an efficient administrative service, the development of appropriate economic infrastructure, ensuring per capita growth rate output sufficient to engender a doubling of real income per head, creation of job opportunities, production of high level of intermediate manpower and promotion of balanced development between the urban and rural areas, among others.

The third national development plan between 1975 and 1980 reinforced the targets of the second national development plan as the plan focused on increase in per capita income; even distribution of income; reduction in the level of unemployment; increasing the supply of high level manpower, diversification of the economy; balanced development and indigenization of economic activities.

While the first three development plans enunciated by the country resulted in tangible development, subsequent ones cannot lay claim to same. The fourth national development was between 1981 and 1985. While the authors claimed that it would consolidate on the third national development plan as well as ensure increased real income for all Nigerians, reduction in unemployment, increasing power generation and increasing food production and raw material to meet the needs of the growing population, the plan was marred by increased import bills amidst a drastic fall in crude oil export revenue. Consequently, not much was achieved. The succeeding development plans such as Structural Adjustment Plan (SAP), rolling plans from 1990 to 1999, Vision 2010, National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and Vision 2020 have all had minimal impact on the economy.

As important as planning is to a nation, no plan can work itself. It is only the commitment of the human resources available in a country that can translate a development plan to real development. While Nigeria benefitted greatly from its first three national development plans which resulted in the building of many facilities across the length and breadth of the country, same cannot be said of the succeeding plans. This is because of the leaders’ penchant for cognitive dissonance.

Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term used to explain variance between beliefs and behaviours. Cognitive dissonance comes into play when a person’s actions are contrary to his expressed goals or visions. Every Nigerian leader expresses the desire to make the nation great but they invariably act in the contrary. Every Nigerian leader since 1999 made a promise to fix the nation’s refineries but the refineries are not any better than they were in 1999. If a Nigerian company is building the world’s largest refinery in the country why should it be so difficult for Nigerian to fix her refinery? Cognitive dissonance.

Every Nigerian leader since 1999 promised to solve the seemingly intractable electricity problem. But in spite of the huge fortune sunk into the project, the country is still light years behind electricity supply. But in the same country, Lafarge, a private company is generating its own electricity. Is the company richer than the country? Why has Nigeria been unable to exit the electricity conundrum? Cognitive dissonance.

Leaders make things happen. When Nigerian leaders shun cognitive dissonance, when they act in line with their expressed vision, take charge of the country and run it profitably; when they run with great plans and work the plans, when they provide needed infrastructure and emplace clement environment, then the country’s narrative will change, productivity will escalate, poverty will decline, life of the average Nigerian will get better, the slumbering giant will be roused and Africa will experience liberation.

The time to start is now so that the 60th anniversary of the nation’s independence can be a departure from the agonizing past.

It is possible. It is achievable.