X-raying the battle for Yobe 2019

As the politicking towards 2019 gets hotter, the actions of key players in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are said to be tied to the whims and caprices of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam.

Investigations by Nigerian Tribune revealed that the party is adopting what is called “Consensus methodology” to pick candidates for different positions.

It was learnt that politicians, who disagree with the methodology, have been labelled as “rebels.

THE CONTENDERS

Ahmed Lawan

The Senate Majority Leader is a veteran of the National Assembly, having been elected into the chambers since 1999. He spent two sessions in the House, and on his third session in the Senate, emerging Senate Majority Leader in 2016. He holds a PhD degree, which places him as one of the most academically endowed for the job. At 59, he appears well experienced for the job at hand. Senator Lawan started his journey as a loyalist and inner caucus member of his party, All Peoples Party (APP), later All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and now APC. He replaced Senator Ali Ndume as Senate Leader in 2016, following the removal of the Borno Senator by his colleagues. Except things change between now and the end of the year, Government House sources believe Lawan is still on the same page with the governor and that gives him an edge. Political watchers believe the governor, who is the leader of the party, may zero in to Ahmed Lawan with all things being equal because he is from the C zone which has never  held the plum job since the creation of the state in 1991.

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Sidi Karasuwa

This is one man who used to be a member of the kitchen cabinet of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam. He was the Director General of the Governor’s campaign organisation, an indication that he is on the trusted list.

This APC stalwart from Machina/Nguru/Karasuwa/Yusufari constituency is one politician that has been bold enough to say that he wants to take over the mantle of leadership when Geidam leaves.

Sidi Karasuwa’s body language appears clearly set on the plum job, and having served as the Director General of the campaign structure of his perceived political godfather, he appears to be saying it is payback time for him.

Lawan Shettima

He is seen as a loyalist and member of the inner circle of the government of Ibrahim Gaidam. That makes him also an elite member of the APC caucus of the state. Watchers believe Geidam gave him the job of Commissioner for Works, Transport and Energy because of his political dexterity. He is a man with capacity, which is why watchers believe he is being groomed in the works ministry for higher tasks. Loyalty and the reality of outshining his boss will not make him declare openly until he understands the machinations of his boss who talks very little. Some speculators recently went to town openly to declare him crown prince but knowing the kind of boss he has, he quickly responded by saying he is satisfied in serving his people in the present capacity.

Adamu Maina

He is a former Minister of Police Affairs, appointed in 2010 by President Goodluck Jonathan.  The Waziri of Fika is a political scientist who has attempted to serve his people several times but failed. He is not the type of politician that will take no for answer in spite of the perceived disadvantages said to be associated with the Potiskum Zone where he comes from.  So far, he has contested for the governorship position in Yobe state thrice without success, and there are indications that he may soon join the race for the fourth time.

Mustapha Maihajja

Maihajja is a trained Engineer. He had been unknown until he contested with Ibrahim Gaidam for the Governorship position. Trouble started between him and his party colleagues when he indicated interest to contest for the governorship position of the state in 2015 but was denied nomination form. He went to court up to the Supreme Court but lost out. The party then wielded the big stick for challenging its decision. However, he was compensated by the President who made him the Director General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). But he has since landed in trouble with the House of Representatives in respect of management of NEMA affairs.  What are the chances left for him in the party? Will he stick to the party or join the coalition of Third Force? For now, it appears he is not the favourite of Governor Gaidam in view of the background to their relationship. But in politics, as they say, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies but permanent interests.

Ibrahim Bomoi

If posters, banners and stickers could speak for aspirants, then Ibrahim Bomoi is ahead of other contestants. Apart from that he is believed to be one of those who can walk up to the APC party leaders without invitation and will be received. From Damaturu through Damagun to Potiskum, Nashua road and every available space, the man has adorned his banners and bill boards. Like Geidam, he is a retired civil servant. Reliable sources in his zone say he worked at the federal level where he rose to the position of director before bowing out and started a new career in politics. He is currently a business mogul, philanthropist and friend of the governor. For now, watchers say that the body language of Geidam is tending towards Zone C, which may put Bomoi’s ambition in some straights, but nothing is firmed up yet.

Ibrahim Talba

Ibrahim rose to the rank of Permanent Secretary in the federal service before retirement which gives him administrative experience like Geidam. That should be a plus for him in addition to his pedigree as a man from royal background. It is believed that the PDP has had it tough attempting to win the governorship of Yobe state since the restart of democracy in 1999. Whether Ibrahim and his colleagues in the umbrella party are ready to break the jinx this time is another matter entirely, and that can only happen if the entire state suddenly grows tired of the APC or when loyalists of the ruling party embark on protest votes.

Maimala Buni

He is the current APC National Secretary, one of the most powerful political figures in the state as a grassroots politician. In addition, Buni’s experience in politics many believe would help stabilise the foundation for the development of the state as laid by Governor Gaidam. Perhaps the recent endorsement by President Muhammadu Buhari for his return as APC scribe is one way to ease the headache of Geidam, who many said could be rooting for his preferred candidate. But Buni is well positioned for the job if he decides to quit his top job at the APC secretariat.

Khadija Ibrahim

She is the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and a former member of the National Assembly prior to her ministerial appointment.  As the wife of a former governor of the state, Bukar Ibrahim, she is regarded to be very influential, and commands respect among the political class in the state.

Watchers suspect that she may come in handy for the Government House if the dream of the governor to take over her husband’s former position ever comes to fruition. But many are of the view that Yobe, like Borno state may not be ready for a woman governor yet, especially considering that her husband earlier ruled the state.

Adamu Dogo

He is one of the APC chieftains from Zone C, which has been crying of marginalisation. As the Speaker of Yobe State House of Assembly, Adamu Dogo is one of the loyalists of the party who are seen as well favoured. He is seen as someone who will rather play by the party guidelines than voice out any latent ambition. In that wise, he is yet to announce his ambition formally. In some instances, the politician has been accused of using the legislative members to facilitate his ambition but he has been denying this vehemently. He is somebody to watch in the unfolding scenario since his zone seen as the most disadvantaged.

Muhammad Lamin

Muhammad Lamin, the current Commissioner for Education is also a kitchen cabinet member of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam. That makes him mute over the 2019 ambition. Reports, however, have linked him to the 2019 race. Political insiders believed that he is considered as one of the favoured candidates for the race.

Saleh Abubakar

He is believed to be one of the aspirants in whom Governor Geidam is well pleased.

The Head of Service of Yobe state is regarded as one of the loyalists of the governor. His chances are seen as quite bright.

He commands so much attention that some observers believe he is one of the anointed.

APC sources confirmed that more politicians may soon throw their hats into the ring in the next coming months. The APC appears to rake in the highest number of aspirants and it is believed that the party needs loads of wisdom to resolve the challenge such that it would not risk the possibility of some chieftains working against it in 2019.

Some observers are of the view that the Governor’s embargo on “noise making” in the political arena may be in order for now but that the gladiators must be handled carefully.