Why we’re yet to inform Buhari of readiness for census —NPC zonal director

The National Population Commission (NPC) plans to conduct a census in May 2022. In this interview by WALE AKINSELURE, the Zonal Director on Data Administration for Oyo, Ogun and Lagos, National Population Commission and Oyo State Director of the NPC, Bello Abdulkareem, speaks on preparation for the exercise; the May date for the headcount.

Where do things stand in terms of preparations for the proposed 2022 national census?

We just had the second pre-test. Before now, we had phased demarcation exercise, that is, delineation of constituencies into smaller units, such that during the actual census, a pair of enumerators can accessibly come in within a specified period. After then, we went in to test the methodology of what we have done in the Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) which translates to be the first pre-test. After the first pre-test, you have to go further and test run, in terms of mobilization, technical input we put to demarcation which gave birth to the second pre-test which held in November last year. So, we are still test running and test running till we get to the promised point that we will say we are ready for the really census. But, there is a little deviation in this census compared to the past census. The previous census was analog, paper identification but this one is geo-reference and digital. Now you work with your Personal Data Assistant (PDE) instead of pencil, paper and eraser. PDE is just an electronic device where we input the necessary apps.

In adopting digitalisation, what do you do when you get to people’s houses?

When you are within the EAD, with your pad, you can start from building one to the last building within that confined enumeration area. It used to be paper work, using form NPC01 and everything, now you use i-pad and whatever we are doing, we send to the cloud so that it can get to our database wherever it is situated. There will be little or no manipulation in whatever guise. One unique thing about this aspect of digitisation is when you are in building one as indexed in the Enumeration Area, you cannot move away from that building except you have finished coverage of the head of the household. So, it keeps on guiding you. If you are not done, it informs you that you have another household member to cover before you move to the next building. It is a population and housing census. We are enumerating all the households in a building as well as the buildings. We give you the characteristics of each building in a locality whether it is an institution, religious place of worship, residential, commercial. By this, our data users will find it easier to identify what they need to enumerate.

You have started this process for some time and one testing after the other continues to be done. What are the challenges that have continued to surface?

One of them is the methodology. There is also the issue of security. Also there is the issue of the size of the enumeration area. We need to know the size of the enumeration area vis-à-vis the number of buildings in that enumeration area. If we enumerate probably for three days, and we see that we are half-way into that enumeration area demarcation (EAD), it means that that EAD is too large for two persons to cover. So, we may have to come back to the drawing board and realign. So, we are still testing what we have done on the EAD.

How many more pretests do you have to do before a proclamation of the census can happen?

Census is not just a national issue; it transcends beyond the borders because you need assistance from foreign bodies. So, whenever you have a proclamation of census as a country, you have blown it to the world and the next assistance that will come will be from various world agencies like the UNFPA, UNAID, WHO, UNICEF and others. Before they come in, they have to send in their focal person that will be a representative. We refer to that person as World Chief Technical Assistant (CTA). We have that in place; the person is an Ethopian and he keeps giving us advice. What he sees on ground, he sends to the world body. Locally, we have ministry of health and several other ministries as well as the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) to work with.

The president is expected to have made a proclamation of the census last December, the fact that it is yet to happen seems to cast doubt on the conduct of the census, this year.

It doesn’t. This is because we are supposed to work on our own internal mechanism before we tell the presidency that we are ready for the census. Part of the mechanism is to undergo Enumeration Area Demarcation, first to third pretests. When we get that and see that we are good to go, then the presidency will come in and proclaim.

What is your timeline to conclude your internal processes before you inform the President?

Any moment from now, that will happen. The presidency is aware and that it is why it is imputed in the 2022 budget. That is part of the processes before the proclamation. And what was approved as the budget is an appreciable amount that can get us somewhere.

Nigeria faces security challenge, especially in parts like the North East and North West. Don’t you think that insecurity dampens the chances of the National Population Commission conducting of a credible and acceptable census?

We have discussed that with security agencies at the top level and they have assured us that within a time planned for the census, the tension must have died down. We don’t know their system, they know better. They have assured us that we would be good to go when the time comes.

Is your May date still feasible?

We are working towards it. If we cannot meet up, we will tell the world because we want to avoid a situation where will have an inconclusive exercise. That is why we are going through these stages to know the hiccups ahead of us. The date of the proposed census is elastic. It depends on how we marshall our work, how we tackle the nitty-gritty vis-à-vis the weather condition. We are looking at May but if we can’t meet up, definitely, we will review our calendar.

What are you recruitment plans and how many people do you intend to recruit for the exercise?

We have not recruited anybody for the census. Census taking is more or less a temporary job where we engage people and subsequently ease them out. We are taking our time. During the demarcation exercise, we did recruit on adhoc basis. We trained them and they worked for almost a year. These are part of the people that will come on stream. We are looking at a lot of stakeholders. The recruitment will be massive. We are looking at over a million enumerators alone. Before we get to the enumerators, we have to look at the coordinators and facilitators which are categories of people that are more experienced. These are the persons we are working on to get on board and train them.

Doubts were cast on the credibility of the 2006 census figures, especially from the South. Questions were raised about the credibility of the figures, with allegations that the figures were allocated to favour the North. What will be done differently to erase doubts about the figures from the next census?

I do not believe that the 2006 census figures were tilted to favour the North. If you critically study the Millennium Development Goals on population vis-à-vis child birth or spacing, you will agree with me that the people in the South look at child spacing as part of our daily living. I keep on saying that most of my colleagues in the North are married to two or three wives with about 10-15 children. Down in the South, you don’t exceed three children. If you look at that at that basis, you will agree with me that we did a transparent job. With the scientific method we are employing this time, there is little error of margin.

Political activities will soon pick up with the year 2022 being a pre-election year. Such political activities tend to make the landscape somewhat tense and charged up. Isn’t this a matter of concern to the NPC as it plans to hold census in such a year?

There are a lot of stages to census taking. Before the census, you need to plan for a minimum of 18 months. So, the fact that we are having census this year same as a pre-election year, is just a coincidence. We have been planning for the census for the past 18 months. We have progressed in phases. We are on the final phase to tell the government that we are really ready. By the time we tell the government that we are ready, it is incumbent on the government to consider whether it is not safe or the climate will the tensed up. But, as far as we are concerned, we are going about systematically with our phased assignment.

If there will be public holiday for the census, how many days will this last?

We have been having public holidays in the past and we are looking at a minimum of three days.

Bearing in mind the last census, what are the more technical things you will be doing to ensure a credible census is done this time?

The last census was more or less paper work. We just get the map of an area and work on. Now we are looking at satellite images to get our map. The tendency for error using satellite images is minimal because if you drop something anywhere, it will be captured. So, by the time we are using the maps, anything on ground will show. This is quite different from the other censuses we have been having. The modernity now is the use of satellite images and use of PDAs.

What might make the census not to happen this year?

As far as I am concerned, we have a timetable we are following meticulously. So far, so good.

Will the census hold this year?

We hope so.