What Nigeria must do to avert recession ― Utomi

Political economist, Professor Pat Utomi has bemoaned that the resurgence of fears about another recession in the country is due to the continued reliance of the running of the economy on crude oil prices, and called on the government to focus on boosting production and output.

According to Utomi, the volatility of crude oil prices, the emergence of alternatives, like shale gas, in the United States government, and growing reserves for fossil fuels, were pointers to the fact that oil prices were bound to fall, hence the need for Nigeria to emphasize production and move away from reliance on crude oil prices for revenue.

Utomi identified these imperatives at the capacity development summit convened by Resident Pastor, House on Rock, Harvest House, Ibadan, Idowu Ogedengbe, at Ibadan Business School, on Wednesday.

He bemoaned the reversal in the fortunes of the nation from a country which was ahead of China in manufacturing in the 1970s to a nation that was now largely a consuming nation, warning that until the nation learnt to produce what it consumed, the nation would continue to swim in the throes of poverty.

“One of the dangers of what has happened to us in Nigeria is that over the years we have focused on revenues and how to share revenues. Revenues, no matter how you share them, will not make anybody rich. The only thing that makes people rich is production. If you don’t produce, you won’t escape poverty.

“We are still relying too much on crude oil prices to determine the direction of our economy and that is not good. There is very little we can do to control the direction of pricing of crude oil.

“The general trend points to a Southwards trend even if it holds momentarily because there is anxiety over Iran and other developments politically. The bottom line is that oil prices are going to fall. There are so many alternatives, America is pumping so much shale that they are going to become leading reserves for fossil fuels in the world, their interest is to keep the prices low, make money in their economy cheap.

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“If our output quarter on quarter will keep suffering at this stage, I won’t be surprised if there is recession. But, recession is a technical thing, it is an indicator. But, what is important is how much are we emphasizing production. It’s all about production and output,” Utomi said.

He described the Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP) solution of the federal government as only “a tactical and lovely kind of work” but not a national strategy with specific and clear objectives about the economic development path for the nation.

“The Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP) is a lovely kind of work. But, as I have said on other media platforms, it is not a national strategy for development. It is essentially a strategy premium model that enables you to be more effective in implementing some things.

“The major problem of Nigeria’s economy is that I am not sure of where the Nigerian economy desires to go. There isn’t a national strategy that I say. So, if you develop a tactical thing which is the EGRP that says what we should do with this and that sector, in a place where everybody is making their own policy, every minister is making their own pronouncement. Where are we going?

“Do we want to be the leading producer of product X in the world in 25 years? I don’t see a policy that is saying that to me. But, this might just be somebody from the outside looking in. It might be that the people who are doing these have all these things clearly and have not communicated it in a way that someone like me, with a limited capacity, can understand,” Utomi added.

On whether he was quitting politics going by his 2019 experience, Utomi said he was committed to bringing about changes in the country, remained active in politics, whether he held political office or not.

Recounting his 2019 experience, Utomi noted the interesting fact that he only became governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State, one week after the election was concluded, following the Federal High court ruling which voided the participation of Great Ogboru as APC candidate in the election.

“I went to the court and won, thereby becoming the candidate one week after the election. I won in court and was declared the winner of my party’s primaries. But do we go fight for the election to be annulled?

“You get to a point and try to do other things. Bear in mind that I am active in politics not as a politician in the classic Nigerian sense. I’m actually there to see if the system can change. So winning the election, public office means pretty little to me.

“But, if it can bring about change, it’s worth the sacrifice. But I will be active continually, trying to improve the environment, so that the people can have a more meaningful existence. I’ll be doing what I am doing in different ways,” Utomi said.

The event featured remarks by various speakers like Mr Dotun Saseyi, Dr Kemi George, Mr Wale Okunniyi who harped on the need for Nigerians to be willing to dare the odds and demand good leadership.