What is Tinubu thinking?

A big-time Bourdillionaire erupted with joy the day President Muhammadu Buhari opted out of the coup to retain John Odigie-Oyegun and his gang, by hook or crook, as APC national secretariat landlords for another year, when tenancy should be legally ending in June. He had been sullen since NEC validated the d’état, but kept at his argument that the president, despite his pretext to the official headship of the swaying party, would not add Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the national leader title-bearer, without unction mantle, to the open war, his military seniors and contemporaries, led by, who else, Olusegun Matthew Okikiola Aremu Obasanjo, had declared against his stay on the Nigerian throne, beyond May 29, 2019.

Despite the swashbuckling mood in Tinubu’s camp of forcing the hemlock down the president’s political oesophagus, it may be too early to celebrate and these big bros agreed.

It is hoped that the class-coronated national leader alongside his corner, has deep deconstructed of two cogent facts about President Muhammadu Buhari, with whom he has been competing and contesting imposing influence and commanding leadership of the party. One, Buhari is Fulani, the stock which one of its own, Kaduna State governor, Nasiru el-Rufai, toasted as unforgiving and can exact revenge a century after hurt. Two, the president is still a general in his mind and professional accomplishment, despite the entry-point, qualifying certificate saga. The saying about not pulling a gun on a general and returning to holster without firing, is taken as a compliment among the khaki old men. Olusegun Obasanjo proved and still proving it, full circle, with his former vice, Atiku Abubakar. He had opportunity to shoot a crawling general in the build-up to the 2003 PDP primaries for Obj’s re-election, but chose to prance around, celebrating forcing the former military head of state, to his knees. The soldier survived the ambush and Atiku has since been crawling in his presidential voyage. Goodluck Jonathan, who should know, recently sent a powerful message to Waziri Adamawa; Aremu may claim retirement from politics but he holds one of the handles to the revolving door that would usher Atiku to Aso Rock, if he would ever get there.

Add these to the personality cut of the president who hasn’t made a bone of not forgetting humiliating pie. A northern friend told a story of a “condolence” visit to Buhari over his 2011 electoral loss and a lady relation reportedly alluded the “shocking” loss to the General being unforgiving and always cuddling and breast-feeding hurting past which shrank his social and political networks, especially in the South. Everybody reportedly laughed. Walking them to the car about three hours after, Buhari was said to have turned to the lady in question and said “…..(mentioning her name), you said I don’t forgive and forget”, to which the entire shelled delegation reportedly said “Haba, General, she said this three hours ago and we all laughed and forgot about it”.

Beyond the birthday colloquium charade and the chaos of a visit to Lagos, the Buhari persona and personality and his predilection to get even, no matter how long, is the job neatly cut out for Tinubu and his camp, until something would give way between him and the man who would have still been his boss, had he been Vice President.

Buhari declared war the day he appeared to jokingly reference Tinubu’s perceived contention with him, for the Big Boss epaulette, during a dinner at his Villa abode. With a clipped dental, he had eerily observed that since both were still contesting the leadership of the party, he would rather introduce Tinubu as one of the leaders of the party. Challenge to rope-a-dope, doesn’t come clearer.

It isn’t too clear Tinubu took enough cue of that presidential bolekaja. If he did, he had not played the public part of his games in a way suggesting a deeper understanding, despite being always credited with sagacious politicking, except he has a Big Bang joker which would come crushing on the table at the zero-hour.

Though there are other stories behind and beyond the president’s volte-face on Oyegun’s future which seemed to be a humble pie served a la carte by Tinubu, the mere idea of the public seeing it as a victory for the Lagos strongman, should get BAT preparing for the mother-of-all-battles that would be waged by Aso Rock, ably supported by wannabe-FOP (friends of president) and his own supposed lieutenants, who would fight on the side of the president, for the sake of their political future.

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Was Gbajabiamila not at the extension-approving NEC? Did he join Dele Ajomale, Inuwa Abdulkadir, Kemi Nelson and Pius Akinyelure, (the four anti-extension voters) in registering their master’s disavowal? How could he and why should he, when the extension, would have strengthened his hands on the Surulere exco against Babatunde Fashola, who would ordinarily want to seek a return to party relevance as the “Prime Minister” of this administration.

For a general adept at war tactics, is it not likely a deadly trap had been built into the seeming victory of Bourdillion Lion, making it easier for his “enemies”, to take away all, lawfully and legally, from him in 2019?. Is it not possible for the desired congresses to be programmed inchoate in Tinubu’s backyard, lawfully compelling caretaker arrangements that will finally take care of his perceived flippancy? It would be for Tinubu and his men, to figure out the land-mines  in the goldmine thought to have been acquired.

It is understandable if the Lagos strongman decided to stay in and fight unlike Atiku who sought his Wakanda elsewhere. He cashed and crashed all, for APC to crush PDP. He was the undisputed leader then. But things changed, and not even to his own Yemi Osinbajo, he couldn’t again, suggest the Tunde Bakare unkind deal of 2011.

A better reading of the tendencies and cleavages coagulating to wrestle power, should have suggested to Tinubu that being a godfather, directing national affairs from Bourdillion, would not work with the one who was going to be president and the sharks around him.

When the VP deal fell through, Tinubu should have grabbed “something” elective in Abuja, to balance him well for the expected attendant wheeling-dealing. He possibly thought anything below No 2 was belittling. Now, he is almost a VIN (Very Important Nobody). Imagine a Tinubu as Senator-Emeritus, he would definitely be “running things”. There must be a kingdom, for an emperor to be. Today, whatever you can call Tinubu’s political family is largely a hollow grandeur. The coming battle is strictly his to fight and well….