US’ worries over 2019 elections

RECENTLY, the United States expressed concern over what it called intimidation and partisanship by security agencies ahead of this year’s  general election. It expressed its readiness to observe the entire preparations for the elections in order to identify potential attacks that could threaten the legitimacy of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the electoral process. Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs at the US Department of State, Tibor P. Nagy (Jr.), stated this while testifying before the US House of Representatives’ Sub-committee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organisations. In a statement entitled “Nigeria at a Crossroads: The Upcoming Elections,” Nagy deplored  voter suppression, widespread vote buying, the use of armed gangs to intimidate voters, heightened insecurity, terrorist attacks on electoral institutions, violence towards voters, observers or electoral officials and the inability of large numbers of internally displaced persons or persons with disabilities to vote witnessed around the country in recent elections.

He noted: “The Department of State agrees with the view that Nigeria’s February 2019 national elections are a critical test. The conduct of the elections could have significant consequences for the democratic trajectory of Nigeria, West Africa and the entire continent. The conduct of the 2015  elections, although by no means perfect, was a step forward for Nigeria’s democracy. That contest resulted in Nigeria’s first-ever democratic transfer of power to a non-incumbent party, thereby increasing capacity and improving the conduct of Nigerian democratic institutions and election bodies. We support a democratic process that is free, fair, transparent, peaceful, and reflects the will of the Nigerian people. We are monitoring and messaging, both publicly and privately, to mitigate a few key areas of risk that could jeopardise a free and fair process. We are already seeing increased tensions and polarisation as the election approaches. We assess that politicians are turning to narratives of identity politics in an attempt to improve their popularity, with potentially serious consequences for national unity. ”

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It would indeed be futile to pretend that the infractions highlighted by the US government are imaginary or exaggerated. The problems are real and they constitute clear and present danger to the elections scheduled to begin on February 16. Even if the international community did not say so, Nigerians are well aware that the situation in states like Borno, Zamfara, Yobe, Benue and Plateau currently ranges from tense to volatile. Sadly, while ahead of the 2015 general election the Nigerian military was busy recovering territory after territory from Boko Haram, terror attacks on military and civilian populations have heightened in recent times with no robust response from it. As a matter of fact, the governor of Borno State, Alhaji Kashim Shettima, recently broke down in tears over the dire security situation in the state, while the governors of Zamfara and Yobe states have expressed their  helplessness in the face of attacks by bandits and terrorists. If these threats are not contained ahead of the elections, there will be catastrophic consequences for the country.

Bad as the security situation in the country is, there would still have been something to cheer about if the security agencies were not as demonstrably partisan as they have been adjudged to be  by Nigerians and the international community. For instance, the police, circumscribed by poor leadership, at least prior to the appointment of a new Inspector General of Police last week, has not been known to discharge its constitutional responsibilities without political bias in the last four years. The recent governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states, far from building on the gains of the 2015 general election, actually drew the country back by many decades, marred, according to local and international observers, by vote buying, voter suppression and harassment of election observers.

We agree with the US government that 2019, 20 years since the country returned to democratic rule, will be a significant year for its democracy, not least because the youngest voters have never known a Nigeria without democracy. That the forthcoming elections provide Nigerians an opportunity to shape their country and solidify its place as a democratic leader in Africa is not in doubt; what is in doubt is whether state and non-state actors will play by the rules. When security agencies become partisan, then the state itself becomes compromised. There is no way security agencies will be partisan without the people knowing about it, and a populace wary of its supposed protectors cannot freely exercise its democratic franchise. In case the point needs repeating, the country will be in trouble when security agencies fail to protect democracy and become the megaphone of the government of the day. This is why, more than ever, the heads of the various security agencies must go back to the drawing board, clean up their act and approach the elections with utmost professionalism. Needless to say, INEC, which has come under serious scrutiny in recent times, cannot afford to let the country down.