Understanding Ogun APC brouhaha

Group Politics Editor, Taiwo Adisa, with reports from Yinka Olukoya, in Abeokuta, examine the unfolding commotion within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State, concluding that the manner by which the crisis is resolved portends grave implications for the direction of the state in 2019.

The political stage in Ogun State, has in the last few weeks been replete with drama and more drama. Actors in each scene have been busy showcasing their strengths with intrigues and gerrymandering covering the entire space. You have more than enough drama being played out in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). But the game of wits is not restricted to that party. The opposition parties are also acting different forms of drama.

Since the conduct of the governorship primaries by the ruling APC in Ogun, it’s been one day one trouble. Various permutations and intrigues have been playing out even as the governor has been expressing confidence he would hand over to Adekunle Akinlade in 2019 instead of the adopted APC candidate, Dapo Abiodun.

But what is playing out today has its history in the weeks preceding the party primaries. There were developments within the party ahead of the primaries which were seen as not in the best interest of the party. Though a good number of stakeholders believed that the decision by the state chapter of the party to zone the governorship seat to Ogun West Senatorial District, which is yet to produce a governor in the history of the state was a laudable development, opinions still got divided on that front. A number of other stakeholders also hold tightly to the view that Ogun East Senatorial District should produce the next governor of the state, especially going by the permutations around the old divisional structures of the state.  Going by that calculation, such stakeholders distinguish between Ijebu division and Remo division, even though the two are now warehoused in Ogun East. They believe that the rotational policy should have ensured that Ogun West district undertakes its tenure between 2011 and 2019 and that since Amosun’s tenure had eaten up that period, Remo division should now take its rightful turn.

According to the proponents of that calculation, rather than keep strictly to the three senatorial district structures of the state, the state should stand on the four divisional pillars it had rested on since creation.  The four divisions include Ijebu, Yewa, Remo and Egba. While the Ijebu division produced Chief Olabisi Onabanjo, who ruled between 1979 and 1983, Remo produced Otunba Gbenga Daniel, who was governor between 2003 and 2011. The Egba had also produced Chief Olusegun Osoba (1999-2003) and Senator Ibikunle Amosun (2011 – 2019). In line with the argument in favour of divisional structures, Amosun should have yielded the seat to a man from Yewa division after four years to ensure that he completes only the eight years due to Egba division and such that he would not constrain the rotation policy.  As it is now, with Amosun completing eight years, Egba would have spent 12 years in the government house, whereas the Ijebu have only had four stints in the Second Republic.

With nine local governments domiciled in Ijebu and Remo divisions, compared to five in Yewa and six in Egba division, the Ogun East stakeholders believed that the slot should naturally rest on the zone this time. With a singular mind, the proponents of that line of thought pursued their wits to a logical conclusion, leading to the emergence of Dapo Abiodun as the governorship candidate of the APC.

Agitators of the divisional structures have vociferously defended the claim that the state rotates its governorship slot based on the Egba/Egbado and Ijebu/Remo provincial calculations and that such should not be distorted.

But the argument has also been vehemently countered by those who believed that the nation’s constitution is clear with each state having three senatorial districts for what they called equity, justice and fairness. They further posited that in Ogun State, two senatorial districts have been producing the governor of the state since its creation, leaving out Ogun West.  In line with that argument, they claim that the governorship seat has rotated among Chief Olabisi Obasanjo (East); Chief Olusegun Osoba (Central); Chief Gbenga Daniel (East) and the current governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun (Central).

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Attempts have been made in the past to see a governor emerge from the Western Senatorial District but such efforts never yielded result. That, however, has never dampened the resolve of the proponents of a governor of Yewa extraction emerging someday. The belief is that the district has been largely marginalised for long.  Amosun appeared to be playing the redeemer of Yewa/Awori card when he announced his preference for Akinlade a while ago.  Many of the proponents believed he would pull it through. His efforts received commendations from political actors in Ogun East who were of the view that the turn of the district had come.

But the people of Ogun East won’t just give up. They kicked against any plot to cede the seat to Ogun West believing that it would amount to cheating the Ijebu/Remo division since, according to them, the governorship seat is meant to rotate between the two provinces: Ijebu/Remo and Egba/Egbado (Yewa).

They argued that the current governor of the state had used the slot of the people of Ogun West with his re-election for the second term in office in 2015.

In the APC, no fewer than eleven aspirants showed interest in occupying the exalted seat of the governor from Ogun West.  They were said to have been pruned down at a meeting of stakeholders where a serving member of the House of Representatives, Adekunle Akinlade, emerged the preferred choice.

Though the selection process enjoyed the backing of Governor Ibikunle Amosun, who openly endorsed his candidature, stakeholders from Ijebu/Remo province objected and described the process as faulty. Not many however came out to openly challenge the process, but as it turned out, they have their plans.

When Abayomi Hunye, who is from the same council area with Akinlade, scoffed at the adoption of his compatriot when he purchased the expression of interest and nomination forms, there were signs that all was not well within the party. Though the state executive committee of the APC in Abeokuta announced Akinlade as the winner of the primary election which was not supervised by the panel mandated with the responsibility to conduct governorship primary from Abuja, the national secretariat upheld the candidature of Dapo Abiodun. The state executive committee had claimed that it organised a primary that was monitored by relevant agencies before announcing Akinlade as winner. The state executive committee then accused the eight-man panel sent by the national secretariat of the party and chaired by Mohammed Indabawa of compromise and bias.

It appeared, however, that the state chapter of the APC had merely been ranting as far as the nomination process was concerned. The national secretariat had since submitted Abiodun’s name to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the close of nominations on October 18.  Whether there would be a reversal, that remains to be seen.

But Governor Ibikunle Amosu, who has never experienced inhibitions visiting the Aso Rock seat of power in Abuja has continued to restate his belief in the Yewa/Awori candidate, Akinlade. But this drama must surely have an end. INEC has fixed March 2, 2019 as election date for the seat of governors.  It also has limited days allotted to replacement of candidates even at that, an already nominated candidate can only be replaced either as a result of death or resignation, which must show full consent of the affected. One thing appears certain: the final resolution of the seemingly endless drama will have implications for where the power pendulum swings in the state come March 2019.