Ukraine and the test of Russian power 

It is going to five months now that Russia declared its military operation in Ukraine with the aim of promoting its strategic interest and defending it against the potential threats posed by its historically entwined neighbor, Ukraine, to it security. Ukraine has been specifically accused of surreptitiously being  in bed with the United States of America,  the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the neo-nazists to subvert its security and perpetrate genocide in the Russian speaking region of Ukraine. Although while declaring the objectives of its military operation in Ukraine, Russia did not announce a time frame within which the operation would last. However, some commentators and analysts have inputted that President V. Putin had intended a swift operation. That the Kremlin  has failed in quickly triumphing over Russian-assumed lilliputian Ukraine, is to these analysts, an indication of decline in Russian significance as a great power. This is further buttressed by their claim that Russia has not succeeded in torpedoing the government of Zelensky and also in planting it surrogate in Keive as part of it intended objectives. Indeed, in this conflict, we have seen analysts awarding victory to Ukraine already without taking cognisance of millions of Ukrainians that have been displaced, probably millions that have died, the quantum of infrastructures that have been damaged and the gargantuan humanitarian crisis that has befallen the Ukrainian state.Some have even called for the exclusion of Russia from its permanent seat in the Security Council in the United Nations Organization on this account of the seeming frustration and defeat it has run into in Ukraine.

No doubt, this line of thinking is not strange in estimating the strength of the great powers by  analysts whenever an underdog state put up resistance to a topdog state. lt will be recalled that such despise was hurled at the American power at the peak of Covid-19 pandemic and for its recent pull out of Afghanistan.

The term power in international relations and politics in simple terms,suggests,»ability of a state to get what it wants».It is generally agreed that, population, territory, military strength, economy, technology and contemporarily soft power, constitute elements of power. A great power is one that possesses all these in abundance and is able to deploy them. Russia has been adjuged to be one or it inherited it from the defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republic.For one to come to the conclusion that Russia has declined as a great power, it will be fair to do a deep analysis of these power indicators vis a vis its foreign policy objectives or it objectives in any international operations such as the one in Ukraine. The questions then follow: what are the declared Russian objectives in Ukraine? How far have the objectives been achieved? What are the Russian constraints in the operation that have possibly impacted on the speedy çompletion of the operation? Were such constraints not truly envisaged by Russia? And the biggest question: is Russia truly no longer a great power?

In his declaration of the military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, President Putin had said that the operation was aimed at : demilitarization of Ukraine; denazification of the country and securing an undertaking by Ukraine that Ukraine will not join NATO, the recognition of the break away states of Donasky and Lunasky, and the Ukraine’s acceptance of annexation of Cremia.When declaring these objectives, Russia neither avowedly declared a time frame as indicated earlier, to accomplish these objectives nor assumed that the operation would be swift granted the intelligence report it had on the American backing of Ukraine and the large presence of neo-nazists in Ukraine. This being the case, it will not therefore, be correct to quickly adjuge that Russia has declined in great power status on account of not being able to achieve a quick finish in a single operation. Although as adumbrated earlier, America and the West have proclaimed that Russia had been defeated in dethroning Zelensky and planting its surrogate government, the question is: did Russia even contemplate that? If it did and has not achieved that and thus switched to plan B which critics have pinpointed as seizing control of southern and eastern Ukraine, is such action wrong in conflict or war? Such move if even that is the case, methinks is tactical realism rather than a sign of diminishing military capability. Above all, who is in the best position to determine whether or not Russia has achieved the objectives of the military operation? The answer of course, lies between Russia and Ukraine.

Beyond this, it is very apparent that  the conflict has ceased from being one between Russia and Ukraine. It is now a proxy war between Russia and Ukrainian allies namely the USA and the majority of European countries. Indeed, with the USA, France, Britain, the European union and other medium and emerging powers supporting Ukraine, and Russia has still gone this far, is an indication that, Russia is still a great power. The support given by these countries to Ukraine are indeed enormous. For instance, apart from providing military training, American Congress has approved $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine; the UK has given £1.3 billion in military and operational assistance while Germany has hiked its budget for military assistance to Ukraine by €2billon. France has equally delivered weapons of humongous amount in aid to Ukraine.

Amazingly, Russia has been able to weather the storm of sanctions. Amidst the military, diplomatic and economic sanctions slammed on Russia, particularly on the sale of oil and gas, it has been able to retaliate and beat most of the sanctions.Some of it enemies have realistically pocketed their pride and openly and clandestinely deal in Russian oil and gas.  Overall, the Russian economy seems well managed to cope with the conflict situation, the Rubble has been strengthened while the US still sits on Russia›s reserves put at about $600 billion; Russia and the rest BRICS members are making efforts to dethrone dollar as a universal currency; Russia is still deteremined to fuifll its international debt obligations.Which country can do all these in a serious conflict or war  if not a great power?

Across the world, America has flunted it values of democracy, liberalism and the rule of law: it soft power. Russia›s Putin is projected as authoritarian. As such,  America and the West believe that Russia›s influence has diminished across the globe compared with those of America and the rest of the democratic world. However, many other countries of the world have seen the liberal bloc violating their own values and realized that,they are out just to promote their hegemonic and other national interests, a perception that has influenced them to have sympathy for Russia even if covertly. From the foregoing, it is palpably evident that, Russia is still a great power. The truth is that, its power is just being tested by a concert of the rest great powers except China, on the global stage and not Ukraine.If America did not lose its status as a great power following its defeat in Vietnam; its withdrawal from Afghanistan; its slow response to COVID-19 pandemic, Russia can not therefore,  be said to be declining in great power status on account of an unfinished conflict whose hands appear to be those of Esau›s and its legs those of Jacob›s and which also has no time frame to end.

Dr. Adebisi, a retired Registrar and currently an Adjunct lecturer of international relations, writes from Joseph Ayo Babalola, University, Ikeji-Arakeji, Osun state