To avoid use of nuclear weapon, Ukraine suffers what it must

FOLLOWING several threats and F warnings which the world generally took with a pinch of salt, Russia invaded Ukraine on 24th February 2022. Though the Russian President had announced that he was conducting a special military operation’ for the purpose of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, this broadcast was immediately followed by the strategic bombing of Ukrainian vital military targets; and in perfect sync, Russian ground troops and armoured columns commenced movements towards the country’s capital, Kyiv, in an attempt to force Ukraine’s surrender. The whole ideology behind Putin’s invasion is based on the hopes of a greater Russia and return to the USSR’s former glory and territorial control. The spate of the unprovoked attacks was soon followed by President Putin’s apocalyptic threat that whoever tries to impede us let us alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history! Perhaps against the background of this threat, the response by the West could not interfere militarily but instead, meted out a barrage of sanctions on Russia on various fronts: from financial to consumer goods, to airspace, and to oil & gas. The West caused devastation to the Russian economy by targeting its central banks and oligarchs, and by removing them from the SWIFT system. Recently, the West has begun moves to cut off the Russian gas supply by publishing a plan outlining how it will slash its dependence on Russian gas by up to two-thirds in 2022, and completely rid itself of Russian supplies by the end of the decade. No doubt, this will, in addition to previous severe economic sanctions, create a serious devastating effect on the entire Russian economy as Russia alone has been responsible for nearly half of the entire European Union’s natural gas, oil and coal imports. Both Putin and his beloved Russia are now international pariahs with the Russian Rouble crashing to a historic low while the Moscow stock exchange suspended trading due to an unprecedented sell-off, the assets and properties of Russian oligarchs and those with perceived ties to Putin being seized across Europe.

However, the bone of contention is not in the economic effect of Russia’s unprovoked war but whether Ukraine would not have been written off the world map by the time the economic sanctions finally crumple the Russian economy. Some have even argued whether the economic sanctions from the West would achieve the intended effect on the long term. What then is the purpose of a barrage of sanctions which Russia will recover from, as against the possibility of wiping off Ukrainians off the face of the earth? Will the world continue to watch as Putin commit atrocious acts of destruction, pillaging and killings? From time immemorial, the world has been producing political leaders some of whom are instinctively combative, arrogant, assertive, and merciless; some of whose actions have led to destruction of historic proportions simply because they were unchecked.

WWI began as a response to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, by a Serbian nationalist. The Serbian government therefore ordered the Serbian army to mobilise and also appealed to Russia for assistance. On July 28, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia and within a week, Russia, Belgium, France, Great Britain and Serbia joined Austria, Hungary and Germany and World War 1 began, finally ending in 1918 and leaving nine million soldiers dead, 21million wounded, and five million civilians dead. World War Two was sparked off by the German invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 and fuelled in large measure by the Japanese militarism. It finally came to an end in 1945 when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan. The war claimed about eighty million lives, being approximately 3% of the world population at the time. The two wars were a product of the combative instinct of the world leaders at the time.

There could have been a third World War in 1960 which was eventually averted. I was a self-sponsored student, working and studying in London for the Bar Examination of Wales and England at that time. Britain which was one of the outspoken Western countries supported US against Russia. Krushev, a highly intelligent leader of Soviet Union, warned the Western world and in particular, he told Britain that it was a small island and that he would sink Britain, a small island, below the sea. Nigerian students whose parents had the means flew their children to Nigeria. However, those of us who had no means of paying for the flight back to Nigeria had no alternative but to resign to fate. We saw each minute as the end of life when Krushev would sink all of us into the sea through the use of atomic bomb. We were glued to our television and radio and nobody ventured to go out. Thankfully, the war did not eventually break out.

Nigeria has more than 5,600 students and numberless Nigerians who are either studying or working in Ukraine. Having gone through the ordeal of 1960, I understand the agony, frustration, and the suffering of Nigerians in Ukraine as the bombs, missiles and tanks are destroying properties, killing innocent people. After all, we must appreciate that all previous world wars, in spite of the carnage and destruction of lives and properties ended with one sort of peace agreement or the other but then, did these agreements bring back to life those who were killed?

Ukraine is a relatively young state which became independent in 1991. It has a long history of dispute and partitioning between Poland and Soviet Union. It is inhabited by Ukrainians and Russians. There was and there is the ethnicity problem which has been the cause of several disputes, conflicts and even wars including but not limited to the Crimea declaration for independence in 2014. On February 27 and 28, 2014 the Russians living in Crimea seized buildings in the Crimea and quickly organized a referendum which resulted in 83 percent voting for integration into Russia Federation. Those who live in Western Ukraine see themselves as belonging to European Union while those who live in the East want to be attached to Russia.

The world needs to do more than mere economic sanctions in curtailing the Russian invasion. If Russia successfully captures Ukraine, what is to stop it from advancing on other republics which formed part of the former USSR? Will it not send a message to China that it can then freely invade Taiwan since the Western powers are too weak to intervene? Certainly, Russia must be curtailed, not out of fear of its threats to unleash terror, but for the greater good of humanity. After all, most of Russia’s casualties have been civilians – mostly women and children – who were bombed in their homes, and in the hospitals.

Pope Francis, while decrying the Russian ‘barbarism’ of killing children and other defenceless civilians in Ukraine, pleaded for a stop to the attacks ‘before cities are reduced to cemeteries’. Just like the United States rose up to the occasion and intervened in bringing World War Two to an end, it is better to nip the Russian incursion in the bud before it advances beyond the borders of Ukraine into other territories. The solution, to me, is immediate ceasefire by Russia and Ukraine. The world should prevail on Russia to withdraw its troops to allow the United Nations and the Security Council to organise a referendum among those states in the Eastern Ukraine who seem more sympathetic to the Russian cause, in the interest of self-determination and to avoid further bloodshed.

AARE AFE BABALOLA, OFR, CON, SAN, FCIArb., FNIALS, LLD. D.Litt.