The final push

THE die is cast for the crucial 2019 general election with the joint Presidential and National Assembly poll next Saturday. The camps of the leading presidential candidates, including incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and that of his main challenger, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, have been upbeat in the scramble for the six geopolitical zones. Intense horse-trading and lobbying have culminated in sharp rise in temperature within the political circles with the spiraling effects across board.

Vote for APC if you want rail line in Ibadan —Amaechi

Huge human and material resources have been massed to conduct the election, which the international community has described as important and strategic to bolstering democratic values and ethos on the continent of Africa. A whopping N89 billion out of the N234 billion budget approved by the National Assembly is going into logistics for the election, just as about one million ad hoc staff have been engaged by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to prosecute the election. The commission has created additional 57, 000 Polling Units to complement the existing over 120,000 Polling Units across the country.

INEC has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with transport union for the use of over 100,000 vehicles to deploy personnel and materials from state offices to 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs) 8,809 electoral wards and 119,973 polling units. Foreign observers from the European Union, Commonwealth of Nations, African Union and other international bodies are on ground to make sure the election meets global standards. A total of 144 observers are already on a standby for the elections. According to INEC, the list includes 116 local observers and 28 foreign observers.

The initial list of presidential candidates released by INEC in January contained the names of a total of 72 presidential candidates and another 72 vice-presidential candidates. These included President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, who are the candidates of the All Progressives Congress; former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former Governor Peter Obi who are the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates, respectively, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Others included Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili of the Allied Peoples Movement of Nigeria; Mr. Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress; Mr. Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressives Party; Mr. Sina Fagbenro-Byron of the KOWA Party; and Mr. Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria, Mr Gbenga Hashim-Olawepo of the Peoples Trust and Mrs. Eunice Atuejide of the National Interest Party, among several others.

In the build-up to the 1999 presidential election, two power blocs had played a dominant role. One of them comprised retired military men who had dominated the corridors of power for close to 30 years after Nigeria became independent in 1960. Relying on its network of contact, the clique deployed all its arsenal to foist former military general, Olusegun Obasanjo, on the country as the candidate of the PDP.

The other power bloc consisting of mostly civilians, most of who had also traversed the various dispensations from the First Republic to the subsequent era when the military turned the country into a guinea pig under the pretext of political programme. It presented a former Secretary to the Federal Government and Minister of Finance, Chief Olu Falae as its candidate for the presidential poll, to complete the circle of the South-West producing the candidates for the election. In its report on the 1999 presidential election, the Civil Liberties Organisation (CLO), which sent a number of observers to the field, asserted that there were serious issues that could undermine the poll. It stated: “The turnout of voters was slightly higher in this election than in the National Assembly elections, although once again, there was a discrepancy between the official INEC figure of 52.13 per cent- which gave 18, 738,154 votes to General Obasanjo and 11,110,287 votes to Chief Falae- and that of the observers.”

A semblance of that two-horse race stirs more than 74 million voters, as Nigerians go to the poll six days from now, with the leading candidates being of the Fulani ethnic stock. But unlike the 1999 scenario, the allied forces that installed Obasanjo have rallied behind Atiku, with Obasanjo as the arrowhead, just as some retired military top brass are collaborating with a poll of influential civilians to push for a second term bid for Buhari. Last Thusrday, each of the candidates moved to each other’s state of origin-Adawama for Atiku and Katsina for Buhari-to test their popularity away from home.

They seem to be fighting the political battle of their life, with each of the candidates trying not to only confirm their grip on the political lever of their base but to gain an upper hand across the other geopolitical zones in the country.

However, the four zones appear to be the veritable grounds for the battle for the soul of the nation. The zones are the North-Central; South-West; South-East and the South-South, with the scramble for the zones based on variegated reasons of voting strengths and patterns and perceived anger and frustrations of the stakeholders over power equation and other related issues. The battle has also redrawn the pattern of rivalry between the South-West and the South-East, where the running mates of the presidential candidates hail from. A preponderance of the Igbo elite appear to be rallying behind a former Anambra State governor, Obi, since he became the running mate of Atiku for the election. In the South-South, governors principally hold the ace in each of the six states in the zone.

The struggle for the votes of the electorate in the South-West, the constituency of incumbent Vice-President, Osinbajo, is intense and keen, with each camp being at its wits end as the countdown to the February 16 elections enters the final stage. Protracted internal crises precipitated by contentious issues surrounding the conduct of party primaries last year have thrown spanner into the works of the parties attaining a consensus in virtually all the six states in the zone.

Hot spots in the zones 

Though there is no state where the battle among the candidates for the election is devoid of serious challenges, threats of possible confrontation and confusion, some states are rated higher in volatility of political temperature.

Some are for reasons of endemic security challenges from insurgency, banditry and farmers/herders’ clashes, as well as bitter ethnic rivalry; political intolerance and lack of accommodation.  Benue, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Taraba, Zamfara and Rivers are among states rated high as potential trouble spots.  Borno and Yobe states remain the hotbeds for insurgency, which assumed a more frightening dimension in recent times.

States like Kwara, Katsina, Sokoto, Enugu, Anambra, Ogun, Ondo, Edo and Delta are also considered as constituting trouble spots. As part of its intervention to guarantee a peaceful poll, a non-governmental organisation, International Crisis Group, had recommended a number of measures apart from listing six states: Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Plateau and Adamawa states to be highest in “high risks of violence.”

The body called for proactive measures, saying “that the authorities by way of promoting policies aimed at: improving security arrangements by identifying and sanctioning politicians and groups using inflammatory rhetoric, inciting violence or plotting to perpetrate it; ensuring order at campaign rallies; strengthening inter-agency cooperation; and protecting polling centres in a non-partisan and non-threatening manner; encouraging leading politicians at the state and local levels to honour commitments, already made at the national level, to campaign and pursue any grievances peacefully and lawfully (ideally, the main rivals in conflict-prone states would make joint pledges to do so in public ceremonies); and holding confidence-building dialogues between the local leaders of ethnic, religious and farmer-herder communities that are locked in conflict, as a way to undercut efforts by politicians to stoke divides for their own ends.”

Burden of INEC

The responsibility on the shoulder of INEC is awesome, especially with the mentality of the politicians who perceive the poll as a make or break contest. There are reports that the commission is under intense pressure to kowtow before some powerful forces averse to the conduct of an election based on global standard. Some elements are said to be piling pressure on the INEC to further redeploy some key officials seen to be forthright and impregnable by agents of politicians out to subvert part of the processes of the election.

A number of the leaders of thought and prominent groups have also raised posers on what they regarded as the fears following the way the commission was conducting its affairs as the countdown to the elections peaked. One of their complaints bothered on the avalanche of uncollected PVCs, especially in some states, with some observers claiming it was part of a grand plot to disenfranchise some zones in the country.

But the Chief Press Secretary to INEC chairman, Mr Rotimi Oyekanmi debunked the allegation, saying: “The INEC has been conducting general election since the past 20 years. During this time, especially since 2010 and particularly from 2015, the commission has introduced many innovations to improve the electoral system.

One of such innovations is to ensure that no member of any political party is engaged to participate in the conduct of elections. I, therefore, call on any political party or individuals with information on how the Commission plans to or has engaged members of any political party as ad-hoc staff for the upcoming general election to make such information public and mention specific names. It is not enough to make wild allegations. It is incumbent upon those who make such allegations to also provide the proof.”

Similarly, INEC National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education, Mr. Festus Okoye, denied any plot to undermine or sabotage the election by commission. And to underscore its readiness for the poll, the INEC said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had taken delivery of sensitive materials for the elections. Okoye said last Wednesday in Abuja that the CBN in various states had started receiving sensitive materials, including ballot papers and result sheets.

He also disclosed that the commission had already taken delivery of non-sensitive materials including voting cubicles, ballot boxes and writing materials at its Local Government offices across the country. “For now, the commission is engaged in `readiness assurance’ for the elections that will take place on Feb. 16 and March 2. The different zonal stores and states and local government offices of the commission are presently taking delivery of non-sensitive materials for the conduct of the 2019 elections. The CBN, on the other hand, is taking delivery of sensitive materials for the conduct of the elections,” he said.

On other issues such as the concern being raised by some individuals and groups on the neutrality of INEC, Okoye accused the political parties of playing politics. He said: “The only assurance we can give to the Nigerian people is the assurance that we are doing our work professionally and transparently and we are going to deliver the elections based on the mandate given to the INEC. There is nothing that we have done that we have not disclosed to the Nigerian people concerning our preparations. When we did not accept the APC list from Zamfara, the APC accused us of working for the PDP. When we take actions that may not be favourable to the PDP, they accuse us of working for the APC. But the truth of the matter is that we work for the Nigerian people and we are looking at our constitutional mandate and legal mandate and that is where we are going to remain.”

Head or tail, February 16 is here with us! Time will tell if INEC is indeed “doing our work professionally and transparently,” and whether it will be able to ultimately deliver a credible poll, while the coming days is also bound to sound a death knell for the ambitions of some of the gladiators.