The battle to save the soul of Nigeria

 ANY foreigner who looks at headlines about Nigeria on New York Times, Bloomberg, The Economist, CNN, Financial Times London and the rest of the mainstream media (MSM) will be confronted with news of the deadly insecurity ravaging the country, economic turmoil and political quagmire presided over by an ineffectual president.  Global indices from rating agencies like Transparency International, Spectator Index, and Economics Intelligence Unit (EIU) depict a country that is depreciating from where it was a few years ago.  There is a video circulating in which a white man in a city in the United States who only read about recent happenings from Nigeria concluded that ‘any smart educated person who wants to succeed should leave Nigeria’. That is the dire situation the country has been mired in since 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari who had a populist win was sworn in amidst hope and expectations following the first handover from a ruling party to opposition party in Africa’s largest democracy. Nigerians have had a rough three years since then.

There is no doubt that Nigeria needs redemption. Added to the precarious situation, Nigeria’s political scene is a huge melee at the moment, a free for all. Making sense of the clashing forces can only be likened to the fight of gladiators in the Nigerian political coliseum. While the dust hasn’t settled on the attempts to impeach Senate President Bukola Saraki or persuade him to resign by the ruling party, All Progressive Party (APC) which is determined to see him relinquish the number three position of the republic, he threw the polity into a frenzy by revealing to Bloomberg News that he was ‘considering’ running for president. Even political watchers like this writer was flabbergasted because focus has been on the recent wave of defections and the implications for principal positions of the Senate and House of Representatives. However, his declaration of intent is not taken lightly by supporters of the incumbent president who seem to be scared stiff of the capabilities of the man his colleagues know as Oloye (big Chief).

Most of the Western mainstream media, which endorsed him in 2015, have highlighted the shortcomings of his leadership which may affect his chances in 2019. NYTimes, The Economist and CNN have recently reported the deadly insecurity besieging Nigeria under his watch, which includes Boko Haram, rampant killing by bandits, mass kidnappings and the farmer-herder conflicts in the Middle Belt which is getting worse. One wonders if Buhari derives some some schadenfreude from the suffering and hardship of Nigerians. The Council on Foreign Relations, a US think thank on foreign policies, noted that Boko Haram is still a potent threat even after Buhari made it his top campaign promise to end the menace and have claimed victory over the jihadists severally. These mainstream media were favourably disposed to Buhari’s candidacy in 2015 but today they can’t lay their hands on  significant good news to publish about Buhari’s administration.

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The Economist, which usually profiles emerging economies in its special editions, can’t seem to find any good news about Nigeria to produce such an edition to justify its endorsement of Buhari which it did in 2015 in the run up to the election. Washington Post analysed the free trade pact (AfCTA) between African countries which Buhari’s administration has not endorsed up to middle of August 2018 as at time of writing. All the negative image of the administration coupled with low economic performance and falling human indices of development makes Buhari’s re-election less appealing to the foreign powers unlike 2015 when much of the Western world were tacitly on his side.

As noted earlier, the presidential election coliseum is filled with  giants ready to battle Buhari if they clinch their party’s ticket. Prominent is Mr Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of Nigeria (1999-2007), who up to the declaration of Saraki seemed the only impediment to Buhari. Having formally declared to contest the party’s primaries for the flag bearer of his party PDP and being one of the early defectors from the APC – they joined forces with Buhari’s APC in 2015 – Atiku’s popularity continues to increase as the country edges towards the 2019 election. Atiku prides himself on being a job creator, having created 50,000 direct jobs. He is tech savvy, personally responds to people on twitter (from the writer’s observation, just like Donald Trump does) and has begun touring the country in which he’s well received by masses. He is a formidable opponent to Buhari and is not timid to chide the government on pertinent issues affecting the citizens. He’s one of few who were able to muster the courage early in 2018 to declare that Buhari’s presidency has failed to improve the lots of Nigerians. One of the ways he flagged off his campaign was a speech at Chatham House, a foreign policy think tank in the United Kingdom where he discussed various issues of development prominent of which is restructuring; a thorny issue which he believes will end the secessionist agitations in the South East and restiveness in the Niger Delta. A development that is well received and canvassed in southern Nigeria. Even some potential aspirants in the PDP have started visiting him to pay obeisance and will most likely step down for him. But whether Saraki will step down for him if he decides to run is a story for another day.

Worthy of mention is the fact that the PDP has other aspirants for the presidential primaries and having zoned the presidency to the north, prominent northerners such as Sule Lamido, Albanian Bafarawa, Alhaji Dankwambo (a serving governor), Alhaji Kwankwaso and a few others, most who have large following are in the race. Consequently, a combined force of these aspirants behind Atiku or Saraki given the disaffection amongst Nigerian citizens who have had a rough almost four years under Buhari with most of the years spent in economic downturn, recession, high inflation, escalating prices, insecurity, insurgency, banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, rampant killing of farmers in the soil rich middle belt, mass kidnappings, unemployment and many more malaise, we will most likely see Buhari up against a formidable opposition.  Consequently, Dr Bukola Saraki adds a fascinating twist to the 2019 elections.  His political dexterity is next to none; most Nigerians admire him. At the beginning of the current administration, how he was able to rally the opposition party to win the senate presidency endeared him to many across party lines as a bridge builder. His approach to politics is more of coalition politics that is prevalent in parliamentary democracies.

He showed that he’s a deal maker who is ready to work with any Nigerian across party lines in the interest of the Nigerian people. His party’s winner takes it all approach (not strange in presidential democracy though) gave way to concessions in which he let the opposition produce the deputy senate president, as they backed him, a move which calmed nerves and disaffection from the opposition which lost power after 16 years of running Nigeria. Such move endeared him to Southerners (South East and South South) who felt alienated because of the significant effect of ethnicity in Nigerian politics. The 8th Senate he presides has been the most productive since 1999 and has churned out numerous bills prominent of which is the Petroleum Governance Industry Bill (PIGB), which has lingered in the National Assembly for many years. He worked with the youth to ensure the #NotTooYoungToRun bill which ensures youth participation in politics was passed. In all, he is youth eccentric, well educated, being medical doctor, appeals to all social classes, the educated and uneducated. There is no gainsaying to assert that he is the face of democracy in the current administration having done more than Mr Buhari to protect Nigeria’s fragile democracy. He quelled the shenanigan of the APC in their failed legislative coup at the National Assembly makes him more accepted as a true democrat. In all his altercations with the other factions of his former party APC, he has been the one extending hands of fellowship and calling for truce until he had enough and returned to the PDP.  He will be 55 years old and his would be rival in his party, Mr Atiku will be 72 and Mr Buhari, 76 in 2019. Given the desire by many Nigerians for a younger president, the Saraki brand is highly sellable so long as he decides to run and clinches his party’s ticket.

From the foregoing it is very difficult to predict who will win the 2019 presidential election. If Nigeria were a sophisticated society, we would have extrapolated from many opinion polls in which Buhari have lost online and on social media but his party has recorded a string of victories in a few governorship, federal and state legislative elections in the recent past. On the issue of defections, which seem to have depleted the electoral capital of his party, the writer believes that such defections are good for democracy, as it has changed the faces of the two major parties from resembling regional parties. After the 2015, the APC seems like northern party while the PDP a southern party but gaining foothold in all regions from the current defections for each party is a good development as it engenders diversity and enhances democracy. Furthermore, the battle for the soul of Nigeria’s state is fierce and the actors are not backing down. In the heat of the battle, aside the heavy weights are younger contenders like popular owner of Sahara Reporters, Sowero Omoyele, motivational speaker Fela Durotoye, former CBN director and technocrat Kinsley Moghalu, former governor Donald Duke, a role model and toast of young people. Women are not left out. There is 39-year old woman, Eunice Atuejide who has drawn the ire of feminists when she declared that she isn’t one of them; and Remi Sonaiya, flag bearer of KOWA party who has been consistent, was the only female contender in 2015.  Every one of them wants the toughest job in Africa. Being the president of Nigeria means being Africa’s most powerful man and democratic governance has made it possible for enhanced participation by citizens. Whether Buhari will lose that position in 2019 is yet to be seen because whomever the PDP elects to fly its flag will be the most likely gladiator to take Buhari down ceteris paribus. If PDP doesn’t present the strongest aspirant, the party’s chances may diminish which would hand Mr Buhari victory on a platter of gold. Up till Saraki hinted he might run,  Mr Atiku seemed the anointed one for PDP but Dr Saraki running for PDP, in my clairvoyance, would be the most formidable opponent for the incumbent president in the battle royale as Nigerian citizens vote in presidential election and the rest of the world hold their breath for Africa’s largest democracy to choose its leader in 2019.

• Lawal writes in from Ilorin, Kwara State.