The baits, darts that swung Ondo votes

As the main gladiators take stock, HAKEEM GBADAMOSI writes on some events within the political circle in the last three weeks preceding the November 16 governorship election in Ondo State that may have shaped the poll.

For stakeholders, the ongoing debate over the conduct of last Saturday’s governorship election held in Ondo State is expected. To them, it flows along what has become a tradition and pattern in the nation’s political arena. While those whose party was declared winner of the election are celebrating, those in the opposition parties have rejected the outcome and indicated plans to challenge the result at the election petition tribunal.

The most vociferous voices within the opposition are coming from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), whose candidate in the election, Agboola Ajayi through a statement issued by his Special Adviser, Ayo Fadaka, accused the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of undermining democracy by conducting a flawed poll.  Ajayi unveiled his plan to seek redress as allowed under the law. “While not divulging the nature and extent of the results of our investigations for now, our only prayer is that those who possess the privileges to determine the fate of people and nation should begin to live up to expectations and fear God, in the interest of our nation, it’s wellness, peace and tranquility, else they be reduced to same level of criminals and bandits who continuously lay landmines that undermine the progress of our nation. We particularly call on the judiciary to brace up and perform the sacred and onerous responsibilities to guarantee the portability of justice to people and institutions that seek it, the nation and people will appreciate that. In summary, we reject the results of the November 16 election and will take legal actions to reverse the debauchery, that is the option available to us and we are hopeful that man and God who is the ultimate will give us justice. It is time we begin to eschew criminality from our electoral process.”

Conversely, the mood in the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa is effusive. The feeling within the camp is that the declaration of the incumbent as the winner of the election by INEC consolidates APC dominance on the political firmament of the state. Aiyedatiwa defeated his closest rival, Ajayi with a total of 366,781 votes to 117,845 votes. Aiyedatiwa won in all the 18 local government areas in the state and was declared by the Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Lokoja, and Returning Officer for the poll, Professor Olayemi Akinwunmi, as the winner.

The election remains historical following its outcome, as no governor or candidate of any party has ever achieved the feat of winning in all the18 LGAs in the history of the state. Some observers say APC has made a statement with the win. The development is believed to have a major implication for political dominance and control of the six states in the South West. The feat by the APC in the Ondo poll is its first major win in the region since President Bola Tinubu became President in 2023.

The party won the election despite what observers saw as the harsh economic climate Nigerians were going through in the current political dispensation. Many analysts had envisaged a likely change in the voting pattern in the governorship election and a tilt towards the PDP because of what they termed unpopular policies and programmes of the APC federal administration. However, the APC in the state was able to navigate the murky waters.

Apart from this, some observers also claimed that the party latched on the gulf in the PDP by attracting most of the leaders and supporters into its fold. The gale of defections by PDP members became most pronounced a few weeks to the election. It served as a big boost for Governor Aiyedatiwa, as he claimed that PDP did not pose a threat to his bid. He said: “As you know, all the gladiators in the PDP are now with us. We have torn the umbrella of the main opposition party into shreds. In this coming election, your vote must be for the APC.”

The defection of leaders of the foot soldiers of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko in particular is believed to have contributed to the chances of the APC and its candidate in the election. The exodus of the PDP supporters and members came as surprise to many pundits because some chieftains of the party made several peace efforts to reconcile all the aggrieved members. The national leadership of the party equally took some pragmatic steps to achieve reconciliation among the aggrieved PDP leaders in the state so that PDP did not go into the poll as house divided.

The division was most evident with a call for the resignation of the PDP acting national chairman, Umar Damagun by some PDP national lawmakers, who demanded that he should be replaced with a new chairman from the North-Central. So, the party was divided between those supporting Damagun and those opposed his continued stay in office tenure. The crisis led to the defection of lots of party members to the ruling party in Ondo. In its reactions, the PDP dismissed the defectors, describing them as being “inconsequential.” The PDP’s South-West zonal vice-chairman, Kamoru Ajisafe, said the party would not be discouraged by the decision of prominent names leaving the party, particularly for APC. “When we started in Osun State, a lot of big names deserted us; the big names that are bigger than the ones you are hearing about in your state (Ondo) but today, the story has changed. Those that are leaving now have left a long time ago. So, it is now that they know that we can no longer tolerate their shenanigans that they are now leaving. We have the majority of their followers with us. Their departure is very inconsequential,” Ajisafe said.

The APC also witnessed haemorrgae within its fold in the state. The dust caused by the choice of candidate for the election subsisted for some time until the APC national leadership of the party brokered peace weeks to the election. Some of the aggrieved aspirants includes: Chief Olusola Oke, Wale Akinterinwa, Isaacs Kekemeke, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim and Princess Oladunni Odu among others. The support of 16 out 17 aspirants, except Gbenga Edema, who secured the New Nigerians Peoples Party (NNPP) ticket paid off in the last Saturday’s election.

Another factor that played out in the election was the simmering internal crisis in Ondo PDP. Many aggrieved PDP leaders were reportedly not committal to the bid of the party to return to power. Rather, they were said out to take back a pounce of flesh over the 2020 governorship election where the party lost the contest to late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu.

Many of them reportedly refused to support Ajayi’s candidacy because they wanted to pay him back for defecting from the PDP to the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) when he lost the ticket to Eyitayo Jegede in 2020. They alleged that his defection at the last minute weakened the PDP and cost the party the victory.

Similarly, the backing from the senatorial districts other than where the APC candidate hails from helped secure victory for Aiyedatiwa. The zones: southern and northern districts believed that Aiyedatiwa will spend a single term of four years, after which the slot will be ceded to either central or the north. Their argument is based on the fact that it will be proper to allow Aiyedatiwa four years tenure in order to ensure shift of power to other zones after four years. Though, some argue that Aiyedatiwa can re-contest for another term, the Electoral Act signed by former President Muhammadu Buhari, in 2018, limits a vice-president or deputy governor who completes the terms of their principals to seeking re-election only once more. So, many of the politicians from other senatorial districts, including leaders of the PDP eyeing the governor’s seat, supported  Aiyedatiwa because he has a single term of four years and felt the pendulum can swing to their areas after four years. It would recalled that Aiyedatiwa became acting governor when his principal,  Akeredolu, died as a result of prolonged illness. Aiyedatiwa was sworn in to complete Aketedolu’s tenure. He won the APC ticket and eventually won the election.

According to some pundits, the victory of Aiyedatiwa was also powered and made easy with the support of the APC governors, who rallied support for him. Support from Governors Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Hope Uzodimma (Imo), AbdulRahaman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Hyacinth Alia (Benue), Monday Okpebholo (Edo), Bassey Otu (Cross River),  Abiodun Oyebanji (Ekiti),  Usman Ododo and Babagana Zulum (Borno) who were on hand to support Aiyedatiwa contributed to Aiyedatiwa’s victory. They complemented the efforts of the party leadership under the national chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and the national secretary Ajibola Basiru, among others. The governors were said not to only provide physical support but also logistics backing to ensure victory for the party and Aiyedatiwa.

The PDP is believed to have lacked such humongous war chest to challenge or match the APC’s though the two PDP South-West governors: Seyi Makinde and Ademola Adeleke of Oyo and Osun states, respectively braced the odds, with support coming from Governor Duoye Diri of Bayelsa.

The support of APC lawmakers at the National Assembly and the two ministers: Minister of Interior, Bunmi Tunji-Ojo and Minister of Youth, Ayodele Olawande also contributed to the success of the party in the election. The impact of the National Assembly members, who included Senator Adeniyi Adegbonmire, Olajide Ipinsagba, Donald Ojogo, Adegoyega Adefarati, Timehin Adelegbe, Abiodun Adesida, among others stood still for Aiyedatiwa to ensure his victory.

There is no doubt that the last-minute approval of N73,000 as the minimum wage for workers in the state swung votes for Aiyedatiwa, as the state workers appreciated the governor for the new wage. The governor told the workers that though the Federal Government approved N70,000 as the new minimum wage, the state would go a step further by paying N73,000 to its workers. But the opposition described the move as a Greek gift and a bait to curry the favour of workers and the people of the state. The party, through Ajayi’s spokesman, Ayo Fadaka said, the decision of Adetiwa to announce the new wage on a campaign podium was a brazen display of desperation and an attempt to seek favour with the electorate, describing the Aiyedatiwa administration as a colossal failure in all sectors. Fadaka said: “A leader who genuinely cares about the welfare of his people would have long since addressed the root causes of Ondo State’s challenges: poverty, unemployment, and the decay of essential services. The timing is ill-conceived, and nobody is going to take him seriously because he has deceived the civil service once, and they won’t allow him to deceive them one more time—once bitten, twice shy.”

But a media aide to Aiyedatiwa, Sunday Abire, said the minimum wage was politicised by PDP to score cheap political point and said, the workers of Ondo State have made up their minds to support the party as well as the governor that treats them well with regular payment of salaries and other benefits. The people have noted the PDP’s anger the moment Governor Aiyedatiwa announced a robust minimum wage that is not yet obtainable in any state in Nigeria. May Ondo State workers who the PDP wishes to suffocate continue to be Lucky under the leadership of Governor Aiyedatiwa beyond 2025. Ondo state workers are asking the PDP to heal itself already as they have started calculating their pay. It’s a year of increase for the workers of Ondo State. No controversy. Prosperity is here to stay with Governor Aiyedatiwa in the saddle,” the statement read in part.”

On the whole, the election was marred with voter apathy as less than 24 percent registered voters in the state participated. There were allegations of voter inducement and intimidation in some places.

As it stands, Aiyedatiwa seems poise to be in the saddle for the next four years after his inauguration in February 2025. But as the people look forward to the promises of better days by Aiyedatiwa, the big question among many stakeholders in the Sunshine State is: to what extent will Aiyedatiwa fulfill his campaign promises?

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