Stability First: CBN to maintain cautious policy ahead of GDP rebasing, MPC meeting

AS Nigeria anticipates the 300th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on May 19–20, 2025, the apex bank is expected to retain a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties.

 Analysts predict a continuation of the “wait and see” approach as the CBN prioritizes stability, particularly ahead of the release of the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

At its last meeting in February 2025, the MPC held the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) steady at 27.50 percent. Other key indicators such as the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), liquidity ratio, and asymmetric corridor, were also left unchanged. That decision, aligning with recommendations from analysts, came in the wake of the NBS’s rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and demonstrated the CBN’s conservative monetary posture.

The upcoming GDP rebasing is expected to reshape economic narratives, with projections suggesting Nigeria may reclaim its position as Africa’s largest economy. However, uncertainties surrounding inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and global interest rate trends continue to pose downside risks.

Analysts remain split on the potential policy direction. Some argue for a rate cut to support economic growth, while others advocate for holding the current rate to guard against inflationary pressures and protect recent gains in market stability.

“We expect the ‘wait and see’ approach adopted in February to persist as the CBN consolidates on current macroeconomic stability and monitors both domestic and global signals,” analysts at Proshare Research noted.

With no strong indicators of disinflation and fiscal pressures still looming, many believe the CBN will prioritize maintaining its monetary policy stance rather than risk destabilization. External factors such as oil price fluctuations and capital flow trends will also weigh heavily on the committee’s deliberations.

As the nation awaits both the rebased GDP data and the MPC outcome, market participants will be closely watching for cues on how the CBN plans to balance growth ambitions with price and financial system stability.

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