Rotation of power and PDP’s road to 2023

LEON USIGBE examines the new issues thrown up by the power rotation policy of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as 2023 inches closer.  

By the end of last week, at least, 14 aspirants had picked up their expression of interest and nomination forms to vie for the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in next year’s election. That makes a neat purse for the main opposition party with individual male aspirant doling out N40 million each for the documents. But that is where the joy stops for the party, which has now found itself confronted by a new dilemma.

Despite its well-entrenched policy of power rotation and zoning, which under Section 7 (2) (c) states: “In pursuant of the principle of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of the party and public executive offices,” it is now not too sure of its next step concerning where to select the presidential standard-bearer for the poll.

There has been a strong push for the party to present its candidate from the South based on the premise that the outgoing president of the country is from the North. By May 29, 2023, Katsina State, Northwest-born President Muhammadu Buhari, would have served two terms of eight years in office. It will, therefore, be preposterous, observers say, to expect another candidate of northern origin to succeed him irrespective of the political party that may emerge victorious in the exercise.

But out of the 14 PDP presidential aspirants that have solidified their intentions to contest are four unyielding Northerners including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who failed to win the presidential poll as the party’s candidate in 2019; Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, who contested for the 2019 ticket but lost to Atiku; Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State; former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and, former Managing Director of the defunct FSB International Bank, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen. The majority of the aspirants are understandably drawn from the South as they are in the race on the understanding that it is the region’s turn to produce the Nigerian president. This is in line with the position of the Southern governors who have insisted that the region should produce Buhari’s successor.

 

Atiku Abubakar’s insistence   

Atiku was the beneficiary of the PDP zoning policy in 2019 where he had no Southern aspirant to contend with in the primary. His position now on the initiative is not only ambivalent, but he is extremely adamant that he must get the chance to contest again despite the existing party practices. “Yes, people have not stopped talking about power rotation and zoning, or whatever it is. For sure in the party, we invented and formulated this zoning policy simply because we wanted every part of this country to have a sense of belonging, and I personally have paid my dues on the issue of zoning. Many of you were members of our government when all the PDP governors came in 2003 and said I should run and I said, no. We have agreed that power should remain in the South-West. Why should I? Some of those governors that supported me went to jail. Some of them were kicked out of their offices. We made sure that we kept policy. So, you cannot come and try to imply that the PDP has not been following the zoning policy.”

However, observers wonder why he is in the race at this time if he truly believes in the policy as he claims above. The former vice president’s response seems to suggest that he is contesting because of the need to equalise the years spent in power by Southern and Northern civilian presidents, which, he argues, is currently in favour of the South. “The many years of the PDP government – eight years and six years, all of them were from the South. So, we should not be stampeded by the opposition party. They have a moral obligation which is inescapable. My vision is building bridges across the country. Please, join me in building bridges across this country so that every part of this country will have a sense of belonging,” he says.

This comes after failing to nick the nation’s top job when he previously became the presidential candidate at different times under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN and the PDP).

 

Tambuwal

Tambuwal has also shown that he has scant regard for the PDP rotation principle as he seems to suggest that only a northern candidate can win the presidency for the opposition party. Thus, he argues that the party must first win the election by presenting a credible candidate before thinking about sharing posts. “You can share tickets because you can tear it up, but you must plan to win. PDP must accept this reality. The ticket must be balanced, as zoning or any Muslim-Muslim ticket or Christian-Christian ticket would be dead on arrival and recipes for disaster.” Convinced about the chances of a northern candidate in the 2023 poll, the Sokoto governor has since formed a league with Atiku, Saraki, Mohammed and Hayatu-Deen seeking to come up with a consensus candidate among themselves amid Southern aspirants’ determined push to get the presidential ticket.

 

Ayu’s admonition 

The national leadership of the party recognises the critical nature of its zoning and rotation policy to the party’s survival and stability and the national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, hardly minced words on it when he inaugurated the Governor Sam Ortom-led 37-member Zoning Committee to fashion a solution to the dilemma. His position: “PDP has a history of rotating our offices. Anybody who doesn’t get it this time should wait after the tenure of whoever will be our next president. There should be no rancour whatsoever, remain focused on the bigger picture because that is what we want. I believe that by the time we have the big prize in our hands, we will share it, and we will rotate it the way we want. If we had not been interrupted on this journey, about six years ago, we would have started the same process. We believe PDP is going to produce the next president once we start this journey. This time, we will ensure it goes round. And it will go round with justice, fairness and the interests of Nigeria.”

 

Ortom-led Zoning Committee 

The Zoning Committee ended its assignment last week without managing to come up with a definite stance on the region to get the party’s presidential ticket. However, initial reports suggested that it threw the position open, but this was walked back by Governor Ortom who said there was no such decision by the committee. Even though he maintained that the committee reached a unanimous agreement, it has turned out that it was not exactly the case. Indeed, the committee was unable to reach a common ground because its members had split along the various tendencies according to their loyalties to the different presidential aspirants now vying for the ticket.

The chairman of the committee made a push for a southern candidate, appealing to members during their sessions to consider the issue of shifting the ticket to the region in the interest of the unity of the country, but was rebuffed by anti-zoning members. This led the committee to agree to a middle course position, which led it to recommend three options, including zoning the ticket to the South, leaving the ticket open for all sections of the country, and allowing the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party to decide on the way forward. But the initial report indicating that the committee had thrown the ticket open had set the party hierarchy scrambling to correct the perception and not to alienate the South.

The main opposition party fancies 2023 as its best chance to recapture power at the centre, but as things stand, rotation policy appears to present its worst Achilles’ heel.  With the ball now thrown back to the court of the NEC, the PDP’s highest decision-making organ will be hoping to sort the problem with minimum injury to all concerned and able to realize its dream of a comeback.