Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump

Hillary Clinton emerges from her party’s convention in Philadelphia with a restored lead over Donald Trump, having earned a 7-point convention bounce, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.

In a two-way head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 43%, and in a four-way matchup including third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 45 per cent to 37 per cent with Johnson at five per cent and Stein at five per cent.

Besides improving her standing against Trump, Clinton’s convention appears to have boosted the share of Americans who think her policies will move the country in the right direction (from 43 per cent before either convention to 48 per cent now), while Trump’s right direction number held roughly steady following the back-to-back political gatherings in Cleveland and Philadelphia.

Further, a majority of Clinton’s backers now say their vote is more to show support for her than to oppose Trump, a sharp shift since early May. Back then, 48 per cent said their vote was one of support for the former secretary of state, 58 per cent say so now. While Trump also improved his numbers on that metric, his voters are more evenly divided, with 47 per cent saying they’re backing him to show support and 50 per cent saying it’s more to oppose Clinton.

More of Clinton’s backers also say they are certain to support her come November: 44 per cent of registered voters are Clinton supporters who say their mind is made up, while 36 per cent say they are solidly behind Trump. Only about 16 per cent of voters say their minds could change in the 99 days left between now and Election Day.

Clinton’s convention appears to have helped her reverse the damage done to perceptions of her honesty during the GOP convention, but she did not improve those numbers compared with where they stood before either convention. Overall, 34 per cent say they consider Clinton honest and trustworthy, up from 30 per cent after the GOP convention but exactly where that figure was in a poll conducted before either convention happened.

Clinton made more progress on several other measures, however, with 50 per cent now saying she’s in touch with the problems of ordinary Americans, and 48 per cent that she will unite the country and not divide it. She gained three points — a change inside the margin of sampling error for this poll — compared with a poll conducted before the Republican convention on having the right experience, running for the good of the country rather than personal gain and as someone you would be proud to have as president.

On each of those measures, Clinton fares better than Trump, except when voters are asked about their honesty. Thirty-five percent say they see Trump as honest and trustworthy, just about even with the former secretary of state.