PDP NATIONAL CONVENTION: Conspiracy theories and the battle within

Group Politics Editor, TAIWO ADISA, examines the controversies, conspiracy theories and the crisis already trailing the process towards the December 9 elective National Convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), concluding that the party threads a thin line towards success.

A week before the non-elective national convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in August, the Interim National Chairman, Senator Ahmed Makarfi appeared on the Platform, a current affairs programme on the Nigerian Television Authority. He told his interviewers that the national convention would only ratify an extension of the tenure of his Caretaker Committee. He also said that the protracted legal battle which ended at the Supreme Court had taught the party huge lessons adding that members would henceforth do things differently.

But as the December 9 convention draws closer, there is nothing on the horizon to show to Nigerians that the party has really learnt its lessons or that it is ready to do things differently.

Right now, for the PDP, the path towards 2019 is strewn with thorns, broken bottles and lots more. It is also laced with, deceits and double talks.  How the party would go about resolving the jigsaw and whether it would come out clean are questions whose answers lie in the belly of time.

But the unfolding scenarios are already painting a picture of a party in deep crisis, whose leaders are as clueless as the followers on the way out of the crisis. As the party inches closer towards the December 9 national convention, more and more picture of a divided house has begun to be showcased. For now, the crisis seems to be largely centred on the candidacy for the chairmanship of the party. The South-West believes it should be given a right of first refusal, since it is the only zone that is yet to occupy the position.

Actually, before the aborted 2016 Convention in Port Harcourt, the South-West was about to clinch the seat. Lagos State governorship candidate in the 2015 elections, Mr Jimi Agbaje had been endorsed by the forum of governors, who were set to defeat the former Deputy National Chairman, Chief Olabode George.  It was gathered that the caucuses in the South and the Northern parts of the country met to ratify the choice of the South-West. It was resolved then that the South-West should produce the chairman. But between June 2016 and now, many months have gone by and the scenario, which would have led to a peaceful emergence of a national chairman in 2003, has been jettisoned.

In the past, even though the position of National Chairman had always been zoned between the North and South, a clever process that stalls a rancorous setting was always put in place. A micro-zoning arrangement, usually fashioned by the elders would emerge and then you see the position go to a particular geopolitical zone. That system worked when the chairman was zoned to the North under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, when the North-Central states of Plateau, Benue and Kogi produced national Chairmen one after the other. The position went from the late Solomon Lar, to Barnabas Gemade to Chief Audu Ogbeh and then Col Ahmadu Ali (retd).  The South-East also produced the like of Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo and Vincent Ogbulafor. It worked.

But the major opponent of micro-zoning at this instance is the chairman of the caretaker committee, Makarfi, who has declared repeatedly that the entire South is eligible to contest. That has led to the emerging conspiracies and the booming threat of a hijack of the party by either a section of the stakeholders or some external forces.

 

The tussle in the South-West

Though the South-West zone had thought it would be handed the party’s top job in line with tradition of the PDP, the scenario is different this time. Besides the lack of a united force to bring contending forces together, the motley of candidates is giving little room for choice.

Two weeks ago, some members of the Board of Trustees in the zone attempted to prune down the number of aspirants, a move that created further fiasco. The BOT Caucus, through Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, had announced its plans to screen out former Governors Rashidi Ladoja, Gbenga Daniel as well as the governorship candidate of the party in Lagos State in 2015, Mr. Jimi Agbaje, leaving Chief Bode George, a former Deputy National Chairman of the party, Professor Tunde Adeniran, a former Ambassador to Germany and Professor Taoheed Adedoja, one time Sports and Special Duties Minister, in the race.

But the decision generated an uproar which informed the insistence of the national secretariat that the position is to be contested by all contestants from the South. The like of Daniel and other aspirants said to have been screened out also spoke strongly against the plan. The space has since been left open for all.

 

Makarfi, Secondus versus chairmanship aspirants

With Makarfi’s opposition to micro-zoning, it wasn’t long before accusations of bias surfaced. It is not just the issue of bias, however, as an intricate web of conspiracy was immediately weaved around the issue. Many party leaders insisted that Makarfi is nursing a 2019 presidential ambition and that he was merely scheming for the emergence of a candidate who would be disposed to his ambition. That candidate is seen as the former acting chairman, Prince Uche Secondus. Incidentally, Secondus’ ambition is also linked to the plot by his state governor, Nyesom Wike, who was said to be bent on securing his second term ambition by ensuring the emergence of a national chairman that would guarantee that.

A part of the conspiracy theories also had it that Wike was working hand in gloves with Makarfi for the emergence of a “weak” presidential candidate for the PDP in 2019 as a way of reducing the intensity of the federal might against his second term bid in Rivers.  Secondus, in an interview, denied all that insisting that his ambition was borne out of his desire to deploy his experience at the disposal of the PDP. He said that the 2019 race is already at hand, adding that the PDP needs a chairman who could hit the ground running. But that will not deter the former Minister of Education, Professor Adeniran and Chief George from labelling Makarfi a Secondus supporter. Last week, Adeniran threatened to withdraw from the race, adding that the body language of Makarfi had shown that he was backing the aspirant from the South-South, Secondus.

Another aspirant from the South-West, George, a member of the party’s Board of Trustees, also accused Makarfi of bias, adding that the caretaker chairman is trying all he could to impose Secondus on the party  because of his presidential ambition. A statement by the Director-General of the George Campaign, Alhaji Ibrahim Aliu, said that Makarfi has the ambition of contesting the 2019 elections and has allegedly entered into alliance with a South-South candidate (presumably Secondus) over the matter.  George asked Makarfi to resign his position as chairman.

Besides George and Adeniran, other aspirants in the race include Chief Raymond Dokpesi also from the South-South like Secondus, former Ogun State governor, Daniel, former Oyo State governor, Ladoja, Professor Adedoja, a former Minister and Agbaje, the front-runner in the build-up to the aborted 2016 convention. .

But within the South-West itself, there are issues of plots and counter-plots. Already, some sources have spoken of the plan by Ekiti State governor, Ayo Fayose, to deny his compatriot from Ekiti, Adeniran, his support in view of the possibility of his emergence as vice-presidential candidate in the long run.

 

Further conspiracy theories

Aside the alleged alliance between Makarfi and Secondus, there are also insinuations that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was already setting out to impose a candidate on the main opposition party through the back door. It was learnt that the political wing of the Presidency has taken over the sponsorship of one of the candidates who recently hit the roads with vociferous campaigns. But that is said to be one of the strategies already designed by the “Tact Team” of the APC put in place ahead of the 2019 elections. According to sources, one of the strategies is to ensure the PDP elects one of its candidates with either ongoing investigations by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) or an ongoing suit regarding graft.  It was gathered that once that is done, the ruling party would go for a carrot and stick approach, depending on the disposition of the candidate in question. “If the candidate agrees to play ball, he would his case file would be withdrawn but if he decides to go hard on the ruling party, he would find himself earlier in jail than expected,” a source said.

 

Conspiracy and the PDP Governors’ Forum

The ruling APC is also said to be working on a variety of agenda to ensure it outwits the PDP in 2019, sources stated. It was gathered that the party, in a daring move, is willing to open talks with Governors Nyesom Wike, Seriake Dickson and Emmanuel Udom of Rivers, Bayelsa and Akwa-Ibom states to ensure an in-road into the heart of the South-South. Some security chiefs were said to be coordinating the assignment, which a source said had already seen the Senate Minority Leader, Senator Godswill Akpabio, a former governor of Akwa-Ibom and godfather of the incumbent, hold talks with President Muhammadu Buhari in the Presidential.

The move, according to the theorists, is targeted at assuring the PDP governors turn in their support for President Buhari as candidate of the APC, in return for retaining their states in a deal akin to the strategy adopted by former President Obasanjo in the 2003 general election. In that election, Obasanjo had entered into a pact with the Pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere and the governors of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the six South-West states. Only the then governor of Lagos state, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who broke ranks with the agreement, survived the PDP tsunami.

It was gathered that a security chief had used the opportunity of a security conference held in Uyo in October, which was put together by a security consultant in Uyo, Akwa-Ibom State to prepare the ground for further talks with the South-South governors on the said deal.

As a result of that agenda, the theorists posit that the body language of the governors may defeat a united posture ahead of the 2019 election. A source said that the extreme republican attitude being exhibited by some political leaders in the party in recent times may be remotely connected with the push of the external agenda.

In the same vein, the external forces are also said to be working on the South-East governors. The APC is hopeful of securing a working alliance with Governor Willie Obiano of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) ahead of that election, while the like of Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi, Abia Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu are also seen as targets who could be baited to surreptitiously back the APC presidential candidate to secure their second terms in office.

 

Crisis spreads to North-West zone

The crisis that has engulfed the South-West and South-South over zoning arrangement has also penetrated the North-West zone where stakeholders, including the incumbent caretaker chairman, Makarfi, the former Vice-President Namadi Sambo, former governor of Jigawa State, Alhaji Sule Lamido, his counterpart in Sokoto State, Attahiru Bafarawa, among others are at loggerheads over the planned micro-zoning of the position of National Secretary and National Woman Leader.

The protests were said to have emerged following indications that loyalists of the Caretaker Chairman were planning to impose some persons on the zone, in a bid to preserve the alleged presidential bid. A stakeholders meeting meant to resolve the division was said to have ended in fiasco as none of the elders agreed to the micro-zoning arrangement. It was further gathered that some leaders in the zone were toying with micro-zoning the position of the National Secretary to Kaduna and Katsina states while the position of National Woman leader would be zoned to Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states.

But some loyalists of Makarfi were said to have hatched another plot to take the position of National Secretary to Katsina State so as to free Kaduna State for the emergence of Makarfi in the 2019 presidential race. It was gathered that the group of Makarfi’s loyalists are not only seeking to micro-zone the post of secretary but also targeted a particular former Senator from Katsina State to take the slot ahead of an aspirant from Kaduna, a former National Organising Secretary, Alhaji Abubakar Mustapha, who is said to come from the same local government as Makarfi, as his emergence could affect Makarfi’s 2019 presidential ambition.

A source at a stakeholders meeting which ended abruptly stated: “The chairman National Caretaker Committee of PDP, Ahmed Makarfi had said no to micro-zoning of all the offices, but he is doing it now in his own zone, the North-West because of his 2019 presidential ambition and that is not good for the party. This is another case of impunity that pushed the PDP from a ruling party to an opposition party; it does not augur well for our party now.

“Makarfi is micro-zoning the position of National Secretary to Katsina and even to an individual, thereby trying to kick out Abubakar Mustapha, who is from the same Makarfi Local Government of Kaduna State like him all because of his presidential ambition; he should allow everyone to go to the field, they should all go and contest and be voted for by the delegates. He wants to throw away Mustapha; but there should be a level playing field for all the contestants.”

The party has, however, denied Makarfi’s alleged 2019 presidential ambition, even as the disagreements fester in the zones.

 

Intervention by governors, stakeholders

Amid the bourgeoning crisis within the PDP, the governors and leaders of the party converged on Enugu two weeks ago to discuss with the aspirants and ensure a level playing field for them all.  The meeting, however, appeared to have only secured temporary respite, as brickbats continued to reign afterwards, with the meeting held without securing the quiet that usually characterize the PDP process of this sort.

Party’s spokesman, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, however told Sunday Tribune that the party’s stakeholders would steady the ship of the PDP at the most important time.

“The discordant tunes you hear today is part of the politicking. Our people need to popularise the party and engage themselves positively. At the right time, the elders would ensure a well acceptable candidate emerges in a democratic way,” he said.