AS the electorate gear up for the governorship election in Osun State next Saturday, the implications are far-reaching, writes KUNLE ODEREMI.
It is a week of momentous decision for all stakeholders, not just in Osun State but across the country as the governorship election holds next Saturday in the 31-year-old state. The election is expected to reset the template for the 2023 general election, which though seven months from now, has been generating much passion and tension and acrimony in the country.
The importance and implication of the Osun election is of global interest as governorship polls in Ekiti and Osun states have referenced general elections in the past. This point, for instance, is underlined by the keen interest expressed by the United States in the July 16 election through its representative in Nigeria.
As the head of a delegation on a courtesy visit to incumbent Governor Adegboyega Oyetola in his office, the Political and Economic Chief of the US Embassy in Nigeria, Brandon Hudspeth, said the team would visit security officials, civil society organisations and other stakeholders before the poll.
He said: “The reason why we are here is because of the forthcoming election in Osun State in 2022. We hope that the election will be free and credible because there are expectations within and outside this country over the forthcoming election in this state.
“Our expectation is that the election should be fair and credible. We are partners with Nigeria to ensure free and credible elections. We are meeting with you as the first citizen of the state and our officials will also meet security officials, civil societies and other stakeholders.”
Of course, Governor Oyetola used the opportunity to amplify his record of his stewardship to the state since assuming office. He said his administration had done well in improving the quality of infrastructure in the state, hence he remains the candidate to beat, just as he hopes for a credible election.
Credible, free, fair and transparent election, that is the refrain among other vested interest in next Saturday’s governorship poll to determine the fate of 15 candidates, all of them male. Campaigns for the election have been intense and episodic. A specter of violence, accusations and blackmail has characterised the electioneering almost to the level of obfuscation the real issues concerning the welfare of the citizenry.
At a stakeholders’ meeting on the devolution of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise to registration areas (RAs/Wards), the state Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Professor Abdulganiy Olayinka Raji, had said the task of conducting a credible poll was challenging and required a collective effort.
«For the commission [Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)] to conduct a free, fair, credible, acceptable, all-inclusive and conclusive election is quite an arduous task. But [be] assured that the commission is working round the clock to ensure adequate and watertight security is provided for all to exercise their franchise with ease. Undoubtedly, we cannot achieve a seamless and successful election without the cooperation of all stakeholders. We, therefore, solicit for your unalloyed support and genuine advice on every aspect of our operations.
“We all have crucial roles to play to ensure a peaceful and credible outcome, which will further affirm the maturity of our electoral process in particular and our democracy in general.”
There are a total of 1,955,657 registered voters expected to participate in the coming election. All the 14 candidates challenging incumbent Oyetola for the office are males with only six of them having female running mates. The list of the challengers include: Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Omigbodun Akinrinola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP); Honourable Lasun Yusuff of the Labour Party (LP); Adesuyi Olufemi of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP); Adeleke Adedapo (BP); Adebayo Elisha (APP); Awoyemi Lukman (APM); Awojide Segun (AAC); Dr Akinade Ogunbiyi (Accord); Kehinde Atanda (ADP); Rasaq Saliu (NNPP); Ayodele Adedeji of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and Ademola Adeseye of Young People’s Party (YPP).
Voting population
Whereas, records indicate a steady rise in the number of registered voters in Osun over the years, this has not shown in the figure of voter turnout in the election cycles. For example, while the number of registered voters stood at 1.37 million in the 2003 elections, only 58.63 per cent partook on the Election Day. However, 2018 data show that in Osun West, the number of registered voters was 522,272 voters; Osun East (602,275 voters), while that of Osun Central was 557,948 voters.
The breakdown also indicated the rate of collection of PVCs by registered voters. In fact, INEC said only 1,127,866 people collected their PVCs out of 1,668,524 as of August 2018, leaving 540,658 PVCs outstanding at the dawn of the 2018 election. The final list of candidates released by INEC on April 12 shows that there are 15 candidates for the 2022 election, an indication of a drop from the 48 candidates that contested the 2018 election.
There were four female contestants in the last poll, with only the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Boot Party (BP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), National Rescue Movement, Young Progressive Party (YPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) parading female running mates.
The tendencies
The chances of the candidates will be determined by a number of local, regional and external factors and part of the factors is the public perception of the current administration in the state. The governor and his team have made various claims to his giant strides in the last three and a half years he has been in the saddle. With his party controlling the machinery of government at the state and across the local council level, this factor is being counted to aid the governor in his re-election since the party›s performance in this particular election will impact significantly on APC›s showing in 2023.
A related factor is federal might as President Muhammadu Buhari said the victory of APC at the Ekiti election referenced popularity and acceptance of the party by a majority of Nigerians.
Therefore, there might be a strong determination and effort by ruling APC to consolidate its grip on the political lever of Osun. The filial relationship between the governor and the presidential candidate of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu, equally signposts the tendency of the party putting at stake all it might consider imperative to win and become a value addition to Tinubu’s bid to succeed Buhari in 2023 as president.
On the other hand, the main opposition PDP is also putting up spirited effort to wrest power from the APC in the state. Having lost the Ekiti June 19 governorship poll, the party has the task of securing Osun to reassure its presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar that the situation in the PDP in the South-West is redeemable. A victory for PDP in Osun will guarantee a collaboration with Oyo State, the only state in the South-West where the party forms government.
The presidential running mate of the party and governor of Delta State, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, is believed to have picked up the gauntlet in the bid by the PDP to restore its lost glory in the zone, using the Osun election as a stepping stone. He is rallying all the disparate camps to confront the election a collective assignment to be delivered favourably at the end of the exercise. Both PDP and APC have been bedevilled by intraparty feud with factions uncompromising in their agitations after party primaries.
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Meanwhile, there has been a series of political realignments after the 2018 poll in the state. Fresh alliances have been formed, with a few power brokers shifting base and becoming godfathers in their new political enclaves. For instance, a former deputy governor of the state, Senator Iyiola Omisore moved from PDP to SDP and later APC, where he is now the national secretary. The election has implications for his rising political profile beyond the level of his home state. Omisore is a major pillar in the politics of the Osun East. He commands the majority of the votes from Ife East, Ife South, Ife North and Ife Central and had won two local governments each in Osun West and Central in the past.
Similarly, the poll is of a tremendous importance to the majority of the main stakeholders in PDP, especially the elders, who are co-founders or who brought the PDP to Osun and nurtured it to the zenith of forming government in the past.
This time round, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi represents the third force. He has succeeded in raising the standard in the Accord as a platform through a cultured and well-coordinated electioneering that is based on issues. Though this is his second attempt at running for governorship, his latest effort has made him a strong contention for the office of governor. He has a stiff challenge in the octopus-like APC and PDP in his bid to alter the voting pattern that has already favoured the two.
It is obvious the Saturday election is among trio of Oyetola of APC; Adeleke of the PDP and Dr Ogunbiyi of the SDP. Each of them has been able to pool together, the resources necessary to make a difference. Using various platforms to showcase their plans, the candidates have also taken their campaigns to the grassroots with their foot soldiers complementing those efforts.
For instance, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State and his Kano State counterpart, Abdullahi Ganduje, on Monday joined Oyetola in his re-election campaign. The national secretary of APC, Senator Omisore, was also at the campaign, which took place at Okuku town, Odo-Otin Local Government Area of the state, where they reiterated that APC will convincingly win on July 16. Sanwo-Olu said all members were aware of Oyetola’s outstanding performance, hence the commitment to ensure his re-election. He added that the governor had performed creditably to deserve another term to consolidate on the good works he started, who said was a pride among governors.
“This is a man who God has blessed with deep wisdom and wealth of experience, no wonder he is doing wonderfully well. We are proud to be associated with him and he is an example to many of us. We have come to show you that he is not alone on this journey. By the grace of God, Oyetola will be re-elected come July 16. This election is one that is projected to bring progress to Osun State, and to Nigeria as a whole. So, we expect Oyetola’s re-election to come with ease and landslide victory. The good people of Osun, if you are privileged to have an uncommon leader, give him all the support possible. If fellow governors can testify that he is a shining light, that should give a fair idea of how uncommon he is,’’ Sanwo-Olu said.
Similarly, Ganduje said the leadership and members of the party were resolute to deliver Osun to APC, hence he and others were out to give maximum support to Governor Oyetola. “From what we have heard and seen, he has performed excellently in all sectors and God has used him to bring social development to Osun State within the three-and-a-half years he has been administering the state. He has done a lot in education, infrastructure, empowerment, and he has built a good relationship with workers, trade unions and traditional institutions, among others. This is the confidence we have that it will be a landslide victory for him at the coming election. There is no way this will be an inconclusive election,’’ he said.
On his part, Omisore said the party had worked hard to complement the good work of the governor so far in office to guarantee a free, fair and credible election. “We have heard from our visiting governors what Governor Oyetola represents and what his re-election presupposes. These words are open challenge to us to do what is right for the sake of Osun State and its future,’’ Omisore said.
In the outgone week, Senator Adeleke also expressed optimism of leading PDP to a convincing victory. Recalling the 2018 episode where he narrowly lost becoming governor, he said: «There is no more way for them to perpetrate such act in 2022 if you vote me in as your new governor. They are jokers; they thought they can snatch away Osogbo from me during the contest, but I want to tell them now that, nobody can snatch the town from me. Though, we know their antecedents as deceit and blackmail, these would fail this time round. Enough is enough! We are no more gullible in Osun. They are deceivers and cannot deceive us again with their antics. If they come with gun, we are not afraid of them.”
The money factor
Like previously held elections, particularly in Ekiti, money is expected to play a major part in shaping the outcome of the election. INEC and other stakeholders have been lamenting that vote-buying remains the biggest threat to election as recent events have shown. Prior, the biggest threat to election had been large scale violence deployed at polling units and collation centres by thugs loyal to politicians. But with the increasing use of technology by INEC, such methods are becoming obsolete, thus breeding another monster in vote merchandising.
According to Femi Aduwo, who heads a group of proven election observers “For Osun, it is going to be money-for-money. But this madness has to stop. The office of the National Security Adviser has to ensure movement of large sums of money days before election should be discouraged. We know how they moved money to Ekiti. Let the people decide who will govern them.
“What the politicians are doing to our elections is worse than what Boko Haram is doing to the country. We have written to the American government on the areas they should get involved in the Osun election. It is said that politicians now believe once they are able to get enough money, the voters have a price and they can always buy them.
Peace agents
In what has become the norm, the candidates are expected to sign a pact to be of good conduct with their supporters before and after the election. However, some concerned institutions and individuals have led a crusade aimed at sustaining peace, security of lives and properties as the countdown to the poll attained a frenzy. One of such remarkable interventions was led by the Osun State Council of Traditional Rulers under its chairman, the Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi Ojaja II.
At a special meeting with the INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmud Yakubu and traditional rulers across the state at his palace, Ogunwusi said the commission had much to gain from traditional rulers because traditional institution remains critical in nation building as the closest to the grassroots.
«We the traditional rulers share a similar feature with your commission which is independence and neutrality. We are not politicians and that is why we have the control of all our subjects including politicians regardless of their parties,” the traditional ruler said. He was happy with consistent integration of modern into the electoral system to curb malpractice.
«Luckily for Nigeria and Nigerians, we have an INEC chairman who is patriotic and well in character. My advice for the commission and its leadership is to make Nigeria their biggest project,» Ooni stated.
The INEC boss, Yakubu, while reiterating INEC›s commitment to free and fair elections, had sought the assistance of traditional rulers to prevail on politicians to play according to the rule of the game. His words:
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