Osun 2018: Epic battle for governorship seat

With the conclusion of Ekiti State governorship poll, won by Dr KayodeFayemi of the All Progressive Congress (APC) on the 14th of July, 2018, there is no gainsaying the fact that the major topical issue, dominating the political space in the South West geo-political zone now is the September 22, 2018 governorship election in OsunState as political parties are now back in the trenches, looking forward to a battle that will determine their future fortune or otherwise.

It is not an understatement that the ruling APC-led administration of Governor RaufAregbesola would give it all it takes to sustain its grip on the governance of Osun State, with a view to building on the impressive outing of his party in Ekiti poll as well as leaving behind a successor in whom he repose trust to preserve his eight-year legacy.

But the seeming foggy political atmosphere in the state became more clearer last Friday and Saturday with the interesting and historic emergence of the Chief of Staff to GovernorAregbesola, AlhajiGboyegaOyetola as the standard bearer of the APC and Serving Senator Ademola Adeleke, famed for his amazing cheorographic skills,  for the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP).

Oyetola, who is the master strategist behind the curtain on policy formulation and implementation of Aregbesola last Friday won the primary election, with overwhelming votes of 127, 017 to defeat other contenders, among whom were the Deputy Speaker House of Representatives, Hon LasunYussuf, Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Hon Najeem Salaam, the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), who shortly withdrew from the contest before his commencement, Mr KunleAdegoke, Hon GafaarAmere and host of others.

Before the duo of Oyetola and Adeleke secured their parties’ tickets, Osun, an agrarian state in the South West, created in August 27, 1991, had been enveloped in tension as the fierce struggle, which characterised the contest ahead the governorship primaries, caused palpable anxiety. Expectedly, the apprehension and unending controversy precipitated by the promoters of zoning agenda somehow subsided with Oyetola and Adeleke’s candidacies.

It is quite obvious that a stage has now been for an epic battle for the soul of Osun, formerly synonymous with the sobriquet of “State of the Living Spring” and now “State of Virtue. Bookmakers have stronger submissions that the gubernatorial poll, which is about 60 days away, is going to be a straight fight between Aregbesola Chief of Staff, who dubbed his campaign slogan “IleriOluwa” (God’s Promise)and Ademola Adeleke admired by his supporters with his Imole De” (lightness has Come).

This is coming against the heat generated in the polity by unending agitations and clamour among some stakeholders in the APC and gubernatorial aspirants for theOsun West Senatorial District to take a shot at the governorship seat. Promoters of these agitations tenaciously hold the notion that Osun West had been short changed or marginalised in the power game of governing the state since it was created in August 27, 1991.

Without prejudice to the possible alliance, reconciliations and horse trading which may play out among other political parties, namely the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Alliance for Democracy (AD), Accord Party (AP), Labour Party (LP) before the decision day in September 22, the stark reality is that the APC and PDP remain the two dominant political entities in Nigeria, calling the shots in the governance of the nation.

Against all odds, Oyetola an indigene of Iragbiji in Osun Central Senatorial District, secured his party’s ticket amid intrigues and seeming gang up by 12 aspirants from Osun West during primary exercise held across the 332 wards in the state, indicating the APC had finally sealed the hope of agitators for power shift to the west.

While veiled influence of formidable internal and external forces within the APC over the development cannot be underestimated, the long nurtured agenda of the Osun local breed politicians within the ruling party to take over governance, signalled the boiling point of struggle for power, and the coast seems clear that the home-based would do all within their power to prove a point against those they dubbed foreign-based members of the party.

Drama and threats by one of the aspirants during an emergency meeting held at the Osun State party secretariat, located on the stretch of Gbongan-Ibadan expressway, Osogbo, the state capital under tight security were effectively contained by Senator OvieOmo-Agege, who displayed bravery and managerial acumen to sustain peace at the parley. The lawmaker had held brief for the chairman of the five-member electoral committee, who is also the Governor of Zamfara State, AbdulazeezYari.

To further underscore the seriousness of the primary election, Governor IsiakaAjimobi of Oyo State and erstwhile Governor of Ekiti State, Mr Niyi Adebayo were present during the exercise apparently as a subtle demonstration of solidarity to the candidate of Aregbesola.

• Osun 2018: Clamour for Osun West to produce Aregbesola’s successor increases

Nonetheless, pundits are of the notion that the ripple effects, occasioned by the fallouts from the primary that produced Oyetola indicates that the APC is heading for a decisive battle with sizable army of supporters, members and stakeholders aggrieved and somehow retreating from the warfront over the backlash of adoption of direct primary option. Will this augur well for the electoral fortune of the APC and his candidate?

The stand of the 11 members of the APC State Working Committee (SWC), led by its legal adviser, Barrister AdegokeOgunsola that allegedly suspended  the chairman of the APC in Osun,  Prince Gboyega and his secretary, AlhajiRasaqSalinsile is also an indication that all is not well within the party.

Besides, there had been issues over the condemnation of direct primary option adopted by the party’s leadership to conduct the exercise, which climaxed in the  decision of one of them, who is also the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), AlhajiMoshoodAdeoti, who resigned his membership of the party last Saturday.

Keen watchers of Osun politics are of the view that Adeoti, stood the chance of winning the ticket of the APC provided direct primary option and level playing ground were provided by the party’s leadership. He led his mass followers, admirers and supporters from the APC to declare for African Democratic Congress (ADC), on Monday in Osogbo.

Adeoti, hails from the ancient city of Iwo, one of the communities in Osun West Senatorial District with large concentration of eligible voters in that axis and the implication of his resolve to quit APC may portend danger for the party. Some other gubernatorial from Osun West Senatorial District include the Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Hon Najeem Salaam, Hon GafaarAmere, Mr YussufSakaLayonu SAN, among others.

That SenatorAdeleke had become the standard bearer of the PDP is no longer an issue, his foray into politics since the days of his late brother and first executive governor of Osun State, Senator IsiakaAdetunjiAdeleke had been historic, bearing in mind how his shocking victory during the July 8, 2017 bye election humbled GovernorAregbesola and the APC.

The shocked Aregbesola did not have a choice than to publicly acknowledge and congratulated the then newly elected senator in a show of sportsmanship but which his critics described as face saving.

The decampment of late Senator IsiakaAdeleke and former Governor of Osun State, Prince OlagunsoyeOyinlola from the PDP to APC shortly before the conduct of August 9, 2014 governorship poll, which drew sweat from the body of  Aregbesola,contributed significantly to his eventual victory.

Though there was an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty at the venue of the primary exercise of the PDP conducted by Governor Henry Seriake Dickson of Bayelsa State, who was supported by the former Governor AliyuBabangida of Niger State, Adeleke polled 1, 569 votes to defeat Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, who trailed him with 1, 562 votes. Former Secretary to Osun State Government (SSG), AlhajiFataiAkinbade garnered 56 votes, while Chief Nathaniel Oke SAN recorded only three votes.

Before the conduct of PDP primaries, variables and alternatives to reach a consensus by major stakeholders of the party were explored to pick a flag bearer, with a view to avoiding collegiate primary option, all these measures failed partially at a meeting held inside the residence of big wig of the PDP and former Chairman, Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA), Senator OluAlabi in Osogbo.

Three out of 11 aspirants including the former Minister for Youth Development, Senator OlasunkanmiAkinlabi, Professor AdeoluDurotoye and Senator Felix Ogunwale stepped down for Ogunbiyi with a view to giving fillip to his chances.

A marathon meeting hosted by Alabi, involving party’s elders’ forum extensively deliberated on knotty issues that could hinder and aid the PDP’s anticipated fortunes and reached a conclusion that the party’s ticket should be zoned to Osun West Senatorial District.

Notwithstanding these permutations, it is not yet uhuru for Adeleke as Ogunbiyi has not only rejected the results of the elections but also vowed to follow up the matter with available evidence revealing that Adeleke did not beat him with seven votes.

Even at that Adeoti’s decamp to the ADP has been seen as a potential danger to both the APC and PDP chances. His grass roots strength in his senatorial zone and other zones of the state is well acknowledged, thereby compelling some members of the APC to seek ways of brokering peace with him before it is too late.

Analysts, however, opine that Adeoti’s resignation from the APC is final and no pressure or overture could change his mind. He is said to be enjoying the backing of his followers who are urging him to show the world his voting power.