Of ISWAP and domestic topography

The incursion of the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP) into Nigeria in the last couple of years is a development that has immense implications for countries in the West African sub-region. As predicted by several commentators, the terrorist group would certainly worsen the security situation in the sub-region as most countries are already very fragile due to internal political conflicts and economic weaknesses. This is why the inroad by ISWAP should be viewed with all seriousness. Nigeria is a preferred destination of the group for obvious reasons, especially as the country is already conducive for its activities. One of these is the presence of the Boko Haram, a known ally of the group. It is important to observe that in almost all the countries in the sub-region that ISWAP has infiltrated, they plan to assert control and influence. This would therefore aggravate internal conflicts as it dabbles into the internal affairs of the countries.

It is also pertinent to observe that countries that are becoming strongholds of ISWAP in the sub-region are at the moment in one form of turmoil or the other. The group’s presence in such countries could assume alarming dimensions and be worsened by the large quantum of small arms and light weapons in circulation in the region. There is in fact nothing worse than terrorists having control over the domestic affairs of the countries. Conflicts could result from the activities of groups like ISWAP in attempts to impose their brand of Islam and oppressive rule over the populace. There could also be attempt to impose their surrogates. Any of these could precipitate uprisings which could be major distractions in fragile countries. In countries like Nigeria, the activities of ISWAP in communities controlled by Boko Haram, a close ally of the group, could accentuate the perception of widespread insecurity. Apart from general insecurity that has impeded free movement of people, the incursion of ISWAP will disrupt socioeconomic activities. Economic activities have already been seriously affected in many communities in the northern parts of the country as a result of the activities of Boko Haram and armed bandits. This is why some governors of states infiltrated by terrorist groups suspected to be ISWAP, such as Borno and Niger, recently raised the alarm on the danger posed by it.

Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the group has deeply infiltrated many parts of the country and is believed to be most active in the North-East and the North-Central, but it could also have found its way into the South-West and other parts of the country. This has gone unnoticed because of the cosmopolitan nature and the support it seems to enjoy in some states. The situation is worsened by the absence of the will and determination to frontally deal with the menace. Although people in the rural areas are aware of their existence, there is hardly anything they can do because of the fear of deadly attacks. Discussions among security forces reveal that the problem of tackling the group is not lack of intelligence but lack of will. It is disturbing that the group freely operates in parts of Lake Chad and parts of Askira Uba in southern Borno where it reportedly has settlements and operates markets. The group is also believed to have made extensive inroads into parts of Niger, Katsina and Kaduna states and might have made similar inroads into Zamfara and Sokoto states.

Many informed commentators believe some of the current attacks in Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno and Yobe states are committed by ISWAP or those conniving with them. These attacks are fueling the perception that the country is under siege which could do enormous damage to the image and legacy of this government. The forthcoming elections could also be a convenient period for the group to sabotage the efforts of the government. Nigeria should explore the possibility of cooperation with countries that have the capacity to eliminate the group in the sub-region. The government should also acquire and equip the security forces with the weapons and capabilities they need to fight the group ferociously. The infiltration of the group at a time the country is contending with a combination of acts of banditry, kidnapping, lawless activities of herdsmen and separatist agitations would certainly constitute a huge distraction and serious setback to the efforts to fight terrorism.

The mistakes made in dealing with Boko Haram must be avoided at all costs. The government has provided the security forces with the required capability to stop the ongoing onslaught by the group. The government and the security forces should, therefore, be supported in their efforts to counter the onslaught so as not to be distracted from pursuing its obligations of meeting the aspirations of the people.

Oladeji writes in from Lagos