Nigeria’s faulty power architecture

According to Einstein, it is insanity to do the same thing the same way repeatedly and expect a different result. Nigeria’s electricity industry has been built using the wrong foundation for more than five decades.

Instead of focusing on smart decentralized grid system vis a vis investment in transmission and distribution network where states will be in charge, our focus is on centralized national grid electricity generation and distribution network, where you generate electricity in Port Harcourt and transmit to Yobe, which may not yield the desired goal and is uneconomical.

Even if $100bn is injected into it, the amount will just sink down the drain.

Sowore’s arrest: Comparing Buhari with autocratic leaders is unpardonable blackmail, Presidency replies Soyinka

In 1999, at the dawn of the third republic, if we had boldly envisioned 50,000mw of power within 20years, we could have achieved it by now, if we had the vision and we implemented the right strategy. A new power architecture could have been built. So, here we are in 2019 with the same 4,000-5,000mw of power for 200million people. If we don’t do something radical, in another 20years, we may still be generating below 10,000mw.

During President Olusegun Obasanjo’s era, billions of dollars was invested. At a time, close to 5,000mw of electricity generation projects were going on. Since it’s the same old strategy, the result has been dismal; we had power plants but no gas supply. Power is the most significant element in any society and without getting the power equation right, our 200million people’s potential can never be realized. But once we get our power equation right, probably our GDP will shoot to over $1 trillion.

The 3,000mw Mambilla power project is laudable but can the Federal Government manage the huge firm when finished, when we couldn’t manage 400mw Jebba hydro dam?

Government recently signed a contract with Siemens AG to generate 11,000mw of power by 2023. It is also another laudable idea; but it could have been done since 2015. China without power emergency does 100,000mw per annum. We should be more ambitious since we are in an emergency situation; we can do 10,000mw per annum. Libya is doing 5,000mw for five million people, Iran is doing 50,000mw for 60milllion people, South Africa is doing 50,000mw for 40million people. Have we ever bothered to go to these countries to understudy their strategies?

Our power demand should be in the region of 60,000mw Lagos alone needs 10,000mw. The power ministry should be standalone to enable it focus. Electricity fund should be established and tax collected from every generator imported to fund it so that investors can borrow at single-digit interest for power projects.

Private companies can supply their excess electricity capacity to the national grid for tax rebate and another $20b electricity bond should be raised. Electricity industry is very complex, hence it needs complex and big thinking to solve its challenges; and the right architecture for power in Nigeria is decentralized smart grid system in which every state should bear its burden and  power generated per hour according to demand.

Power should be generated from coal, gas, wind, biogas/waste and solar. However FG should still maintain electricity generation, transmission ambition and focus on these core states: Lagos, Ogun, Abia, Kaduna, Rivers, Kano States and the Federal Capital Territory.

David Atta,

Abuja.