Katsina Blues (2)

BEYOND the maddening threat by a psychotic Northern police officer to waste 200 lives for the president’s, and Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) reacting like a man with whitlow on his 10 fingers anytime a supposed anti-Buhari sentiment is expressed, one would expect a total electoral annihilation of the opposition parties to Buhari’s APC, everywhere in the North and more importantly in his Katsina base, as a testament of his own’s commitment.

But figures from Katsina are suggesting otherwise. Opposition PDP is strangely ascending even with nearly all its leading lights swept away by EFCC onslaught. In a bye-election for Katsina Central Federal Constituency on August 9, 2015, months after Buhari’s swearing-in, it was Sani Danlami of APC with 21,480 votes to PDP’s Muntari Kabir’s 5,890 votes.

Almost two years after, on May 20, 2017, in the same bye-election for Mashi/Dutsi federal constituency, it was a close race of APC’s Mansur Ali 27,968 votes to PDP’s Nazif Yusuf 19,451. Yes, APC still won, with PDP shouting “barawo bansa” at the ruling party and INEC for alleged sleight in vote computation, but the differences in the 2015 and 2017 figures for both parties, speak coherently to reversed fortunes.

How did the president get to the level of struggling in his base against PDP he would ordinarily consider vanquished? Vanquishing PDP was a central politics of Buhari and his men. To their credit, they weren’t ashamed to be bold about the self-preservation agenda. I remember Garba Shehu making the crush-PDP policy known in a televised interview with gusto and unpretentious bile. For someone widely assumed a gentleman, Garba’s visage, when contoured in a certain way, waves the dangerous red flag. That was the looks he wore on the day of the threat.

Also to the credit of the president’s corner, substantial damage has been done to PDP, using a combination of skullduggery and brute law, to the point that dumping the name is a foregone conclusion for both factions laying claims to the leadership structure, regardless of whoever is pronounced the authentic leader by the Supreme Court.

It isn’t that PDP deserves to live. For a family that thought it could use a mangled umbrella to shield a storm it advertently invited on its home, Wadata and its crooked foundation deserve to crumb, maybe for something new to come forth for the millions of party faithful who toiled endlessly for the crooked leaders to “share the money.” You can’t be attempting suicide every time and be lucky all the time. Only that the PDP appears to have been weaned on Abiku’s survival concoction. Tethered Abiku can be sickly to the point of death, but dying, they won’t. Ask mothers who got ‘em.

If even PDP members are not delusional about how grave is its health, why is a supposed “healthy” party in the backyard of its original National Leader, now panting to wrestle the sick one to the ground in what wasn’t more than a “shadow poll”? President Buhari may be as sickly as PDP, but is his memory as fading in the heart of his own kindred? What about the god-like agape love of 2003-2015 that insured his deification with them?

Is Aminu Masari’s uninspiring leadership and underwhelming performance and the zero affection for other elected APC federal and state officials affecting Buhari’s stock in Katsina? This could be, since he allegedly hand-picked all of them as party candidates. But isn’t the Buhari brand supposed to be an all-encompassing mercy for other “sinners” since he is taken and sees self as god that can’t be wrong?

Masari has always given a dour outlook to leadership, except when he famously held the red-card to Olusegun Obasanjo over the Third Term gambit. So, the governor could be a drag. But Katsina isn’t just any APC state, even if the yori yori leadership at the state level isn’t just a Katsina malaise alone. The state is the home of Sai Baba for Pete’s sake and for someone who has no problem being nepotistic for the sake of his people, the vote gap should be so wide that the opposition would ordinarily have no “voice” to raise the vote-theft allegations.

Despite the poorly-shielded desperation of APC to land an oil-producing state and the perceived dip in Jonathan’s rating after his historic exit from power, Nigerians weren’t in doubt of the party that convincingly won the last Bayelsa governorship election, though it took INEC about a week to release the result.

Is Buhari losing steam? Are his own also feeling the heat, with those who can’t tag along, shipping out? Are the two Katsina bye-elections saying anything to the president’s handlers and those egging him in the direction he is currently going? Is Katsina tired of ‘Change’ just like some other parts of the country, preferring the PDP vomit? Or is it that the vote-bagging Buhari is more of a physical intoxicant to his supposed cult-followers than him being in their hearts? Is it a case of out of sight being out of mind?

There are too many posers from the emerging scenario in Katsina and it would serve the president’s corner well to do a war-room forensic analysis of how APC got to allegedly stealing votes in Katsina to triumph in a bye-election, regardless of where the president was during the poll, while the public grandstanding can continue for PR sake.

For those asking for evidence regarding the president’s electoral acceptability, they can start with the bye-elections’ analysis and dispassionately answer the Katsina posers which have become key indices in measuring 2019 whether the president runs or runs home.

It is okay if Buhari’’s corner tries to dodge the fact that he was a grudge choice for many supporters in 2015. One of them is Professor Wole Soyinka. He made it clear he was more against Jonathan than being in support of Buhari. A senior lawyer friend was also all over the space with anti-Jonathan deep sentiments and fliers wherein the former president’s alleged sins against the Yoruba race were documented for voters and posterity. Buhari wasn’t his first choice but Jonathan was a “no-no”. With the unprecedented ABJ (Anyone But Jonathan) passion in the North pre-2015 poll, it is unlikely that numerous voters went for Sai Baba and APC, just to spite PDP for fielding an enemy of a whole race, which was the way Jonathan was then framed. APC’s bogus promises, as surreal and weird as they appeared also likely hooked many. Despite the president also being unabashedly pro-North in appointments and wealthy distribution, the Arewa talakawas, no doubt, would also be feeling the economic heat in town.

Concluded