Junta’s Gambit: Sahel’s new alliance or a self-serving pact in disguise?

By: Tunde Adani

In a move that seems less about the welfare of their citizens and more about self-preservation, the ruling military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have crafted a mutual defence pact, boldly titled the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), signed on the 16th of August, 2023. The move is under sharp scrutiny, with many questioning if it’s nothing more than a cynical ploy to fortify undemocratic regimes under the guise of regional security.

In an apparent echo of the past, the AES seems to be a rehash of the G5 Sahel, a similar alliance formed in 2014. This earlier endeavour, backed by international partners, including the European Union, had somewhat different objectives, primarily focused on regional cooperation and development policies. Contrastingly, the AES, embroiled in skepticism and critique, seems less about fostering security and more about consolidating power within the hands of the ruling elite.

The charter, which obliges member nations to come to each other’s aid, including military assistance in case of threats, mirrors the principles of NATO to some extent. However, the comparison seems to end there. Unlike NATO, which commands a considerable military force, the AES seems ill-equipped to enforce its charter, given the already overstretched military capacities in these nations. The noticeable absence of substantial international backing, a crucial component in the previous G5 Sahel, hints at the isolation these nations face amidst rising concerns of autocratic tendencies.

Recent developments further spotlight the increasing instability in the region, with armed groups intensifying their attacks and further stretching the limited resources of these nations. For instance, the city of Lere in Mali recently fell into the hands of rebels, signalling the growing inability of the governments to curb insurgencies. Burkina Faso has also experienced a surge in violence since its recent military coup, with fatal attacks witnessing a staggering 40% rise compared to last year.

Critics argue that this new alliance seems less concerned with safeguarding the volatile Liptako-Gourma tri-border area and more focused on securing the reins of power. The rapid alienation of these nations from the global community and the looming economic sanctions have made governance increasingly costly, yet the junta appears more committed to retaining power than seeking sustainable solutions to the growing unrest.

The AES comes off as a desperate grasp for legitimacy and support amidst a whirlpool of international sanctions and escalating insecurity. The leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger appear to be less focused on securing a stable future for their nations and more on fuelling a potential pipe dream built on shaky foundations.

As the Sahel navigates these tumultuous waters, the AES emerges as a questionable beacon, one that seems more geared towards protecting the interests of the ruling juntas than fostering regional peace and stability. The global community watches with a wary eye, waiting to see if this alliance will serve the greater good or simply embolden the grip of undemocratic regimes on the beleaguered region.

Tunde Adani is a Political Analyst