It’s now battle in the states

ONE of the theories in the political circle is that the tilt of the presidential election held along with that of the National Assembly could go a long way in influencing the direction of the governorship poll coming up on March 2. The assumption is that the outcome of the election would have a bandwagon effect because of the absence of clear and well-defined ideological underpinning among the vast majority of Nigerian political class. It is recalled that a lot of the leading political actors that secured elective offices in the 2015 poll rode on the crest of the winner of the presidential election.

However, some pundits believe the theory of bandwagon effect as part of the fallout of the presidential election is a double edged sword. The seeming tilt of exit poll of the presidential poll this time could serve a veritable opportunity for the ‘opposition’ to forge an alliance capable of altering whatever permutations and figurations preceding the February 16, 2019 presidential election during the forthcoming governorship and state houses of Assembly poll. The overall aim of the collaboration would be to have absolutely majority in terms of the number of governorship seats and members of the legislative arm across the 36 states of the federation.

Except in Ekiti, Osun, Kogi, Anambra, Bayelsa and Ondo, where the governorship polls had held at different dates previously, the governorship race in the rest of 30 states is hot and slippery because of so many factors. In such states as Rivers, Plateau, Benue, Borno, Nasarawa, Adamawa, Taraba and Yobe, the issue of security majorly underlines the fierceness of the battle for the governorship seat. Banditry, insurgency, militancy, killings in the hands of herders have provoked uncanny anger in those states.

Perhaps more poignant in the raging battle over the governorship seat across the country is the fallout of the conduct of party primaries for the emergence of candidates. The attendant crises have polarized the party and weakened the structures of even the standard-bearers, whose candidatures are shrouded in controversies and extreme political intolerance. The politics of succession has pitched many of the outgoing governors against many other power brokers within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in particular and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in a couple of states like Ogun, Bauchi and Borno, to mention just three. Despite the final list of candidates released by the Independent National electoral Commission (INEC), aggrieved members of the parties have moved from one court room to the other over issues relating to contentious party primaries or imposition of candidates, especially governors who have preferred choice as surrogates, or by political godfathers who have an axe to grind with an incumbent governor and had the implicit support and confidence of top notch of the party at the national level. The crisis over the governorship ticket of the APC in Bauchi, in Imo and Lagos chapters typifies the scenario.

The game of musical chair that the battle for the governorship has become in a number of states is also characterised by a dichotomy: home-based politicians versus Abuja politicians. With most governors as the arrowhead of those at the home front, the war of attrition involves foot soldiers whose primary role is to sustain the stranglehold of their principal of the party structure at the state and local government levels as well as the wards. Leading the opposition are members of the National Assembly, whose bid for re-election are threatened by governors who propped up their stooges as possible replacement for perceived belligerent, errant and uncompromising members of the Senate or the House of Representatives.

Until Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Honourable Yakubu Dogara, took refuge under the PDP, both lawmakers were almost declared personae non grata by their state governors, despite the fact they emerged on the same platform of the APC in 2015. Therefore, the governorship election in Kano and Bauchi states represents a real battle for supremacy.

Money politics

The contest for the governorship is not insulated from the factor of real money politics. As incumbents, the governors have all the paraphernalia of office to mobilise, directly on otherwise, in their good stead. With huge resources at their disposal, many of them have much to deploy in oiling the party structures and control a sizeable number of foot soldiers as mobilisers. But some main political gladiators are relying on the anger that has culminated in the evolution of rainbow coalition to turn the table against the establishment.

The problem of personality clash constitutes another factor in determining who controls the governorship seat in the states. Incumbent governors are at daggers drawn with some ministers from their states because of mutual suspicion over the political lever of their states. The mutual suspicion between the two exacerbated the crisis at the conduct of the party primaries, which is likely to dovetail into the election, as for instance, the fate of the APC fielding candidates in all elections appear foreclosed in Rivers State.

Similarly, some prominent politicians like the Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki and a number of other principal officers of the National Assembly that dumped the APC for the PDP are categorised among leaders that need to make an unequivocal statement through the March 2 poll. Saraki, in particular, is expected to use his awesome political influence to bear on the election such that the candidate of the PDP triumphs at the poll, as the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, is leading a coalition of forces to end what they regard as the era of Saraki dynasty in the political leadership of the state.

Under 20 years of democracy, some states have had more than six state chief executives. The least number is three governors but not without some form gerrymandering. However, a lot of them have apparently gone into oblivion because of politics of narrow interest. Their political relevance easily go into extinction because such onetime governors lack the capacity and vision to build institutions rather than engaging in sheer ego trips while in office.

So, apart from the lucre of office, the outgoing governors are desperate to guarantee their post-office relevance, particularly in the next political dispensation, by determining who succeed them in office on May 29.

The contest between godfathers and god son in Akwa Ibom State is instructive. Senator Godswill Akpabio, who left PDP for APC has vowed to lead his new party to exit Governor Emmanuel Udom from the Government House. It is a playback of what once happened in Zamfara State, where a former governor, now Senator Ahmed Rufai (Sani Yarima) named his then loyal deputy, Aliyu Shinkafi, as his successor before they fell apart. And outgoing state governor, Abdullaziz Yari, is struggling to install a successor. In Gombe State, the outgoing governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, with the massive support of Senator Danjuma Goje, became governor, at cross purposes politically. A former governor of Borno State, Ali-Modu Sheriff, had a major disagreement with his successor Kashim Shettima, shortly after he successfully handed over to the latter, forcing him to join the PDP. But he has since joined the APC. The cat and mouse relationship was also recorded in Abia State after former Governor Uzor Kalu handed over to his anointed candidate, Theodore Orji. Orji won the 2007 governorship election while in detention. Orji soon dumped the platform, Progressive Party Alliance (PPA) that Kalu employed in getting him elected as governor for the PDP. He also turned after his godfather, making life unbearable for the former governor in the state. The ‘scourge’ of Orji forced Kalu to abandon the state for months, for fear of molestation.

No doubt, the March 2 election is bound to create a new vista in the political circle; re-figure the existing power circus and give an inkling on what Nigerians should expect from a new set of power brokers with a mandate to rekindle hope in a troubled country.

The following are the likely to determine the outcome of the governorship election in some of the 30 states where the election is expected to take place.

In Rivers, PDP, APC, Accord expected to slug it out, but…

Though many political parties are registered in Rivers State, only a few have candidates for the March 2 governorship contest. Majority of them have adopted the incumbent governor, Nyesom Wike, as their governorship candidate. This has, therefore, reduced the number of governorship candidates in the state to a little fewer than 10. Even then, only a few have been able to make their presence and interest in the governorship election known. Among the identifiable candidates are the ruling PDP’s, Wike; the APC’ Tonye Dele Cole; Accord Party (AP)’s Dumo Lulu-Briggs; and the Social Democratic Party (SDP)’s Precious Elekima.

Other parties and their candidates are Action Democratic Party (ADP), Victor Fingesi; African Democratic Congress (ADC), Eniye Braide; and Labour Party (LP), Isaac Wonwu.

While some of the candidates and their parties appear to be working hard to clinch the position and occupy the Brick House, others seem to be waiting for a miracle or are content with just to be called a one-time contender for the position, as they appear not to be doing enough to make themselves known.

How the candidates stand.

Watchers of events have noted that from all that had played out in the political environment of Rivers State in recent times, in connection with the forthcoming elections, the PDP and its candidate, Wike, are clearly the party and candidate to beat in the March 2 election.

Besides the power of incumbency, which is widely acceptable in the country as a major factor in elections, the governor’s acclaimed performance in his first term in office is considered good enough to attract votes that would help determine the election in his favour.

Also Wike and the PDP have had very smooth and vigorous electioneering campaigns that reached out to all the 23 local government areas of the state. Thus, if campaigns count in elections, it is believed that he would score an excellent performance on that point.

Being in charge as the incumbent, many believe that there is no doubt that Wike would use his ‘deep pocket’ to his advantage in the election.

APC was expected to be the most potent opposition to the PDP. Many analysts believed it would cause an upset in the election. However, by a twist of fate and following the intractable intra-party squabbles that have plagued it right from the outset has reduced it to an ‘on-looker’ in the battle for the Brick House.

So, the APC, rather than spend time and energy strategising on how to sack Wike from the governorship seat, took what an analyst called “the path of self-destruct” to the extent that people recently said all hope was lost for the party.

But contrary to that widely-held view, the party came up last Thursday, claiming certainty of its participation in the election based on the Appeal Court judgment granting a stay of execution to the Justice Chinwendu Nworgu-led High Court judgment that cancelled the primaries of the party from which it’s governorship and other candidates emerged for the election.

Its Publicity Secretary, Chris Finebone, at a press conference said “the APC and its candidates will now, most certainly, be on the ballot this Saturday (last week).”

Explaining the reason behind the declaration, Finebone added that “no order or judgment given since, including orders given by the Supreme Court on both jurisdiction and representation, has said otherwise.”

Beside this, the APC, if it succeeds in getting listed for the March 2 election, also has the federal might behind it. It is expected to be deployed in ensuring that it snatches the governorship of Rivers State from Wike and the PDP.

But analysts have argued that even if the APC had its way and got listed by the INEC for the contest, it is not clear how it would muster enough strength to fight for the top job, as associated litigations have prevented it from campaigning and selling itself to the electorate in the state.

It is also feared that the widespread condemnation of the APC-led Federal Government’s alleged poor performance in the state would rub off negatively on the fortunes of the party and its candidates.

AP, which standard-bearer for the governorship election, Lulu-Briggs, was a chieftain of the APC, was not a popular political party in the state before his defection. With the entrance of the Kalabari-born philanthropist, Accord has become a known party in the state and a serious contender for the governorship seat of the state.

Lulu-Briggs left the APC following the internal disagreements regarding its primaries. He has since been gathering serious followership to the AP.

Speaking to our correspondent in Port Harcourt about the chances of his principal in the race, Dason Nemiboka, spokesman of the AP, said Lulu-Briggs was “currently the most popular politician in Rivers State,” adding that since he joined the AP, the party had become the fastest growing in the state.

Many watchers of events also believe that coming from the Kalabari, the riverine part of Rivers State, Lulu-Briggs might emerge a surprise winner of the governorship election, “because he might also secure the votes of Kalabari people across the political divides, as the people have been feeling shortchanged, having not produced the governor of the state in almost 20 years.

It is believed that he might also win the sympathy of many independent-minded voters who are tired of the unending war between the APC and PDP which many believe has continued to make the state the flashpoint of political violence in Nigeria.

The duel in Ogun

If there is any state in the South-West zone where the outcome of the governorship election is being eagerly awaited, it is Ogun State currently governed by the APC governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.

The governor is seeking a return to the Senate on APC platform. However, his protégé and anointed successor, Honourable Adekunle Akinlade, who was edged out of the power play for APC guber ticket, is running to succeed his godfather, but under the banner of the All People’s Movement (APM).

The eventual winner of the APC ticket, Dapo Abiodun, will, in the main, be banking on the support he can muster from the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo and a former governor of the state, Chief Segun Osoba and APC members who have not joined Amosun’s APM to coast home to victory.

Due to the firm grip of Governor Amosun on the power levers of the state, APM is home to majority of APC members across the 20 local government councils in the state. Findings reveal that Amosun’s influence looms large in two out of the three senatorial districts-Ogun Central, where he hails from and Ogun West, where his  anointed guber candidate hails from.

The contest is a four-horse race in the state. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) parades a marathoner, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka; the APC is fielding Dapo Abiodun, an oil magnate, while the PDP, has two candidates laying claim to the ticket of the party, Senator Buruji Kashamu, who is currently the candidate recognized by INEC and Honourable Ladi Adebutu, who is the candidate recognised and presented by the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party.

Of the four candidates slugging it out in the Gateway State, two are from Ogun East with nine local government areas, covering territories in Ijebu and Remo divisions. The remaining two are from the five-council Ogun West District.

For PDP, the crisis over the rightful candidate appears to be a blessing in disguise for the party. Candidates from both camps have deployed their foot soldiers to canvas votes for the party from across the state. The PDP stalwarts are waiting on the courts to pronounce the duly nominated candidate.

Isiaka will battle Akinlade of APM for the votes in the Yewa-Awori division. While Isiaka has contested every guber election from 2011, Akinlade joined the race late last year and is currently a member of the House of Representatives. In Ogun East, Dapo Abiodun and Kashamu/Adebutu are locked in a battle of wits for block  votes from the district. Ogun Central, where Amosun holds sway may decide where the pendulum will swing between West and East district.

 Is Oyo up for grabs for the opposition?

In Oyo State, the battle for the governorship seat is led by four main candidates-Adebayo Adelabu of the ruling APC; Senator Olufemi Lanlehin of the ADC; Seyi Makinde of the PDP and former governor of the state, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Action Democratic Congress (ADP).

The ruling APC faces a stiff contest from the opposition parties’ candidates who look as equally formidable. In the process leading to the APC congress in the state, the ruling party party got depleted as those who were played out in the battle for the soul of the party dumped the party for ADC.

The PDP candidate, Makinde, young and vibrant, boasts that he is winning the minds of youths who clamour for a change of guard in the governance of the state. He is a long-distance runner of sort for the governorship of the state. He has been contesting election since 2007.

Lanlehin of the ADC has two of the serving three senators from the state, six of the current 14 House of Representatives and 14 out of the 32 members in the state House of Assembly in his party. His party boasts of victory with what he called a solid structure spread across the five zones of the state.

Alao-Akala of the ADP governed the state between 2007 and 2011. He was also a deputy governor four years earlier, just as he was council chairman between 1999 and 2003. He has been involved in the politics of the state since 1999 when the country returned to civil rule. He hopes to harvest enough goodwill from across the state to win the election.

As for Adelabu, immediate past deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), his selling point, according to him, is that he is young, cerebral and comes with no political baggage. He also feels proud that the governing APC has done well for the state through the governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi.

Some of the opposition candidates are already discussing the possibility of an alliance that will be strong enough to wrest power from the APC. What the gladiators are waiting for is the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly election in the state. This, they believe, will define the strength of the opposition parties and will be the basis to negotiate for the alliance. In 2015, the opposition parties could not come together after the initial election. Can they do it this time?

In Bauchi, it’s also about four major parties

The three major contenders in Bauchi State are the incumbent Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar of the APC, Senator Bala Muhammad Abdulkadir of the main opposition PDP and Ambassador Shuiabu Ahmad Adamu of the relatively new New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

According to some observers, the state has always been the ‘centre point’ of politics in Northern Nigeria because political history.

To many observers, it seems the PDP is detested because it is viewed to be presenting ‘political sinners’ as candidates, particularly Senator Bala Mohammed Abdulkadir who is the governorship candidate.

It has been said that the reality indicates that whoever would be facing the incumbent governor should come from the same senatorial zone with him. This is said to be based on a simple reason: In Bauchi politics, the issue of zone is very crucial. Bauchi South Senatorial zone has about 63 per cent of the total voting population. Some wards in Bauchi metropolis have more voters than some local government areas. This is where the incumbent governor comes from.

Not a few people think that Bauchi State may slip into the hands of the opposition, particularly the newly introduced NNPP, which is believed to have fielded the right gubernatorial candidate in the person of Ambassador Shuiabu Ahmad Adamu.

From all indications, the new bride of the state is NNPP. The people of Bauchi are believed to have welcomed the coming of this party as an alternative to the PDP and APC.

• Election postponement: Probe your officials, observer group tells INEC

Another party known in the state is the PRP. Having lost his gubernatorial bid under the APC, former Minister of State for Health, Professor Mohammed Ali Pate, picked the ticket of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

As it is, the battle line come March 2 has been drawn and it is only the candidate that has the ability to pull the crowd will win the race, considering that President Buhari has urged the electorate to vote for the candidates of their choice, irrespective of the political parties they belong to.

In Kano, 53 persons want Ganduje’s job

No fewer than 53 persons have secured tickets from their respective political parties to slug it out with incumbent Governor Abdullahi Ganduje in Kano State. Among the contenders are four women.

The major political parties and their candidates are Ganduje of the APC, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf of the PDP, Alhaji Muhammed Abacha of the Advanced Peoples Democratic Alliance (APDA) and Alhaji Abdulkarim Adulsalam of the Green Party of Nigeria (GPN).

Ganduje, who will soon complete his first term in office is with a wealth of experience.

Besides, the perceived popularity of President Buhari, an ardent supporter of his, in Kano State, is seen a plus for Ganduje.

Many prominent citizens have also spoken in support of the incumbent governor. A former president of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), who now is the state’s commissioner for information, Muhammad Garba, said the teeming masses of the state were convinced that the governor had performed and “there is no way to change a winning team.”

The PDP also has a force to reckon with as its governorship candidate in person of Kabir Abba Yusuf. A former commissioner for works in the state, Yusuf is said to be enjoying the backing of former Kano State governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement.

Analysts have posited that it is not easy to push aside Senator Kwankwaso when it comes to politics of Kano State, going by past records.

It is also being said that Kwankwaso made it easy for the incumbent president to garner about two million votes in the 2015 presidential election and that this would continue to send a signal to his opponents.

However, there are many factors believed to possibly work against the PDP candidate. One is the issue of aggrieved members of the party who were allegedly denied participation in its primaries. These are said to be waiting “to campaign against the anointed candidate of Senator Kwankwaso in the election.”

Son of late former military head of state, General Sani Abacha, Muhammed, who had also contested for the governorship seat in the past under the defunct Congress for Progressive Congress (CPC) in 2015, is equally in the race.

Muhammed Abacha is popular among the youth in the state because he is a grassroots political mobiliser. He is currently the candidate of Advanced Peoples Democratic Alliance (APDA).

Ikpeazu battles others for the soul of Abia

The drawn line in Abia State is between the incumbent governor and candidate of the PDP, Okezie Ikpeazu, and his challengers at the governorship election.

It would be recalled that Ikpeazu’s victory at the 2015 governorship election was greeted by litigations that lasted for three years.

Also, his election then was achieved through the philosophy of equity. His predecessor and serving senator, Theodore Orji, saw the need for shift of power to Abia South, an area predominated by the Ukwa-Ngwa people.

The administration of Ikpeazu has been criticized by other governorship candidates and stakeholders of political parties accusing it of non-performance.

From INEC records, there are 30 political parties vying for the governorship seat in the state. The four major contenders include, Sampson Ogah of the APC, Alex Otti of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Blessing Nwagba of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Emeka Uwakolam of the Accord.

One major factor that has remained unresolved in the polity has been the issue of rotation of the governorship seat of the state.

On the strength of the rotation arrangement where former governors from the North and Central zones had eight-year tenure each, it is being canvasses that Ikpeazu should stay beyond 2019.

But among the challenges confronting Ikpeazu’s reelection, according to analysts, is the arrear of pensions and salaries owed in the state. There is also the perceived low rating of the PDP-led administration in the state.

In spite of this, his opponents have their hurdles to scale too. A factional governorship candidate of the APC who is from Abia Central, Chief Ikechi Emenike, disagreed with that notion of equity was a way to ensure political stability, but it could not produce the best governorship material that would propel the desired development of the state.

APGA’s governorship candidate, Otti, appears very hopeful, as analysts said he garnered massive support from the electorate in 2015. He is believed to have become a household name in the state.

Analysts, however, rated the APC candidate, Ogah above 70 per cent in acceptance. It is said that he has numerous industries and provided employment opportunities in his private capacity.

In Borno, it’s between Modu Sheriff’s boys

The most visible contenders to the Borno State Government House are two. Both are of the Ali Modu Sheriff political dynasty. One is of the APC, while the other is of the PDP.

Political observers have expressed the belief that the APC governorship candidate, Professor Umara Zulum, may get the job of managing the Government House, but not without “a deadly fight” from his major contestant, a Kanuri like himself, Mohammed Imam.

In the beginning, political watchers told Sunday Tribune, they were of one political family. Things have, however, changed as Imam is on the side of the opposition, while his former friend, Kashim, is now backing Zulum of the APC to take over from him.

The questions many analysts have been asking about the governorship seat of the state are: Why another Kanuri man? Why not a Shua man or even somebody from the Southern Borno people who form the bulk of the think tank of the state? Why is the Shua forbidden from getting the number one position like the Southern Borno person?

Even with all these rhetorical questions, Zulum has so many pluses working for him. He is said to be a man, whose principal, Shettima, is working hard to make governor.

Analysts pointed at the political landscape in Borno State, which was described as “undulating” due to the lingering threat of Boko Haram insurgents in the state. But Boko Haram itself is a creation of political violence and has become a factor in the governorship election in the state.

As of the last count, there are about 41 political parties vying for Borno governorship seat. However, there are indications that very few have political offices as is required by the INEC.

The most prominent are LP, APC, SDP and the PDP, which should have been the main opposition party, but which lost steam since its patriarch in the state, Modu Sheriff, dumped it after losing its national chairmanship Ahmed Makarfi. According to some political observers in the state, there is no serious opposition in the state now as the PDP is yet to settle down as a serious opposition party. It is still believed to be groping in the dark concerning its position as a party in Borno State.

“The PDP is heavily factionalised in the state and your guess is as good as mine that nothing good can come out of this party as far as Borno is concerned. The factionalism within the rank of the PDP has deepened in Maiduguri to the extent that the faction ousted by a federal High Court has vowed to stay on as the authentic group. How then can the party carry the day in the coming election?” queried a public affairs analyst in Maiduguri.