THE Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) kick started the process of its presidential primaries ahead of the 2019 election last week. The party hosted a number of the aspirants in Abuja in readiness for a confidence building exercise that would prevent what some have said is the coming Armageddon in the aftermath of the primaries.
Ahead of that meeting, aspirants paid visits to elders within and outside the party. Some have also visited fellow aspirants, while a number of others have been pounding the streets and social media platforms with foot soldiers who could go as far as pushing the candidature of their principals right into your nostrils if care is not taken.
The numbers of the contenders for the ticket had kept rising until it hit a dozen on Thursday. Senate President Bukola Saraki, who put all doubts beyond anyone as he made public his aspiration, appears the latest on the bloc. He joined the longest standing aspirant in the race, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former interim national chairman of the party, Senator Ahmed Makarfi; Governor of Gombe State, Ibrahim Hassan Dakwambo; former Plateau State governor, Senator Jonah Jang; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal; former governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Atahiru Bafarawa and his Kano State counterpart, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau; another former Kano State Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso; former Jigawa state governor, Sule Lamido and a former Minister of Special Duties, Kabir Tanimu Turaki (SAN) as well as education entrepreneur, Dr. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed. Also on the list of aspirants is the outgoing Ekiti State Governor, Peter Ayodele Fayose, who months ago declared his intention to vie for the top job in the land.
The aspirants are the target of the Wednesday’s Abuja meeting and many have said that the party had come to realise the implication of a party carrying the weight of a leading opposition party in a country as diverse as Nigeria.
The talk out there is whether the PDP would remain the same in the aftermath of the presidential primary. The media was awash during the outgone week of statements from the camp of one of the aspirants, Bafarawa, which indicated that he would not give in to the consensus option in choosing the next presidential candidate of the party. His statement was timely and instructive. It also jells with the belief in the party that not all aspirants would take things lying low if they fail to emerge the candidate of the primary.
The fears
The perennial fear inside the PDP, according to sources, remains the possibility that some of its aspirants could after failing to pick the ticket become agents of the opposition and play out some destabilisation plot. Sources in the party believe that whereas every aspirant knows that only one of them would pick the ticket at the end of the day, some of them, no matter how remote their chances are, might not just give in and back the eventual candidate. Even in the long list, sources said that there are classifications along the lines of front runners and fringe aspirants.
“It is clearly a possibility that the fringe candidates could be wooed by the ruling party to play out a destabilisation plot. It was also stated that among those being eyed as front runners, any of them could also be similarly approached to play the spoiler and hold down the main opposition party as the elections draw nearer,” a source close to the PDP said.
That scenario was also a possibility ahead of the 2015 elections. During the national convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a number of leading PDP faithful had concluded that the emerging party won’t be able to contain the fall outs of the presidential primary. But the leaders devised a peace accord among the aspirants which ensured that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who had been rumoured not to stay back if not elected as candidate did not dump the party after all. Indeed Atiku and the remaining aspirants at the primary rallied round candidate Muhammadu Buhari who eventually won the 2015 Presidential election. Whether the PDP would pull through a similar feat is a key concern of its leaders right now.
It was learnt that the Abuja meeting was aimed at fashioning out how the party would not become factionalised after the primary. Indeed, some waves were triggered earlier in the week, when a news report on social media indicated that Atiku had dumped the PDP for the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), where he is said to be proposing to run with the former Central Bank Governor, Charles Chukwuma Soludo. Atiku had promptly disowned the report and later declared that he would remain within the PDP whether he emerged the presidential candidate or not. Such reassuring words would gladden the hearts of PDP leaders ahead of the primary, but the concern among the aspirants is whether the party would ensure a free and fair primary.
“On the part of the aspirants, there is the concern the PDP might not play by the rules. There is the fear that some candidates are being viewed as preferred or most preferred in the race and that things might be skewed in their favour. Will the party ensure a level playing field? That’s a concern of the aspirants,” a source in the party said.
At the meeting between the party and its presidential aspirants held at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja on Wednesday where the national chairman, Uche Secondus, welcomed the aspirants were Senate President Bukola Saraki; Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; Senator Jonah Jang; Governor Tambuwal; Bafarawa; Senator Makarfi; Senator Kwankwaso and former Minister of Special Duties, Kabir Tanimu Turaki, SAN.
Those absent included Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed; Governor, Ibrahim Dakwanbo and former Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido.
Whether the meeting will yield the desired results remains to be seen but, the statement from Atiku at the end of the week, reassuring his supporters he would not defect from the PDP, meant the meeting might be yielding fruits.
What are the aspirants telling their party men and what promise do they hold aloft for the electorate? Incidentally all of them are insisting they can do things better than the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. All of them also buy into the generic campaign slogan of changing the change. There is a huge mix of possibilities in the PDP camp. The dynamism of youth, industry, educational excellence and political wizardry are all wrapped into the different candidates on stage.
Investigations further revealed that whereas the PDP would want a free and fair primaries, the interests of some power brokers in the 2019 race is also likely to tell on the outcome.
Will the party give it to one of Atiku, Lamido, Skekarau or Makarfi? That is a question the party leaders are currently battling with. This category of aspirants are experienced and have held public offices. They are reputed with the temperament to hold such a big office. One of the fears according to sources in the party, is the age factor.
It was said that this category of aspirants belong to the same age bracket as Buhari and that you need more unique selling points to market any of them as Buhari’s replacement across the zones in the North and the South.
A source said that in the North, you need strong factors to displace Buhari, as it appears as if those who are largely affected by his economic policies, the downtrodden, are still his main supporters. It is as if the supporters are laying the blame for the nation’s woes on other forces other than Buhari, said a source.
It was gathered that many across the North are still of the view that Buhari’s popularity has not been affected among the grassroots of the North, despite the biting economic situation in the zone.
A source also said that the grassroots of voters in the North appeared more carried away with sentiments weaved around Buhari more than issues of performance in government or delivery on infrastructure. Whether that is scientific or not is another thing entirely but analysts who reviewed recent elections in Bauchi, Katsina and other recent by-elections in the North have said that the statistical data emerging from the polls have shown that the Buhari magic might be losing its touch in the critical zones of the North.
A commentator said that Buhari had since lost the elite of the North, while a section of the grassroots appeared to be following in batches. For instance, a statistician said that it was strange to find that the APC struggled to win a House of Representatives by-election in Katsina State last year, while there were reported incidents of vote buying in the recent senatorial by-elections in Katsina and Bauchi. He claimed that such instances were not clear pointers to the seeming overwhelming majority Buhari used to enjoy in that axis.
Will the party try the likes of Saraki, Tambuwal, Datti Baba-Ahmed, Fayose or Kwakwanso? That is another class of contestants whose age bracket places them in the next generation that comes after the previous list. Of the lot, Tambuwal appears the youngest, while Saraki holds the highest office of all for now. Only Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed has not directly held top public office but observers would say he can fill in the gap with his proprietorship of a thriving Abuja University. Kwakwanso has also been a Minister, a two-time governor and currently serves as Senator representing Kano state. In their class is also Dakwambo, who at a time, was one of the two PDP governors in the North. That he has kept the flag flying without falling for the bait of the ruling party is seen as a measure of his belief in the party, sources said.
Those who express fears about this class would ask whether Nigeria is ripe to be left in the hands of those that can be relatively categorised as youths, in view of the challenges ranging from economic to political. Not many are holding Fayose to a strong contest in view of the general opinion in the party that the presidential ticket is zoned to the North.
He easily counts as the longest standing presidential hopeful on parade, having entered into the race in the botched 1993 transition programme that produced the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election won by the late Chief MKO Abiola. He emerged the vice-president in 1999 after winning the governorship election of his home state, Adamawa. He participated in the 2007 presidential contest, lost in the primaries of the 2011 election, as well as the 2015 primaries of the APC and is currently in the race for 2019.
Atiku is one aspirant, who has spoken boldly on the restructuring agenda, insisting he would actualise the devolution of power and federalism once elected. Age and experience would count for him but he stands to confront what some have tagged the Obasanjo challenge as his former boss, president Olusegun Obasanjo has shown to be stumbling block against his ambition in recent times.
Besides, the claim that picking a candidate from the North West would be the way to go so as to reduce the votes accruable to the APC could also come up as a factor against his candidature. However, his popularity across the geopolitical zones is not in doubt.
Senate President Bukola Saraki
Senator Bukola Saraki declared last week he was throwing his hat into the ring, promising to rebuild Nigeria. While leaving the APC for the PDP on July 31, Saraki had chronicled the series of ills massed against him by the ruling party adding that his exit from the party was imposed on him. Youth and age would be on his side but some party leaders are of the view that he might be caught in the web of ‘core’ North versus non-core North. Some are said to have indicated that not taking a candidate from the North West or the acclaimed Core North could amount to leaving too much space to Buhari.
His strategy of resting his campaign on the more cosmopolitan youth in the party and across the states could be an added advantage, especially if the new voters will keep to the expected behavioural pattern of voting against the established primordial tendencies of the past.
One obstacle Saraki might face is the old PDP members, who might still nurse anger against him for leaving the party in 2014 during trying times to join the APC. But others might be persuaded by his apology while returning recently. It also needed to be said that his opposition to the ruling APC government since inception of the 8th senate has won him the support of PDP members across the states.
In fact, the PDP adopted him as its candidate for Senate Presidency in the race for the seat in 2015.
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal
While picking the PDP nomination form last week, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives told newsmen that he was a candidate whose popularity cuts across the country, adding that he has always confronted hostile political situations.
The fact that he has led the House of Representatives with constituencies across the country gives him a national outlook. He is also said to have a strong hold on the current crop of lawmakers in the Eighth House.
“You remember how I emerged as Speaker of House of Representatives and how I remained there as Speaker of House of Representatives. So I am not discouraged by whatever that may come up as a challenge from the administration,” he told his interviewers at the PDP secretariat last week.
Youth and age are also factors on his side. There are some who might be opposed to his politics, especially the way he dumped the PDP to pave the way for the incumbent ruling APC.
While Saraki, Atiku, Kwakwanso and Makarfi have spoken about their vision for the presidency, not much about Tambuwal’s vision for presidency has been heard.
It is believed that those who want to project the age factor as a clause to knock out the likes of Buhari in the 2019 race propped Tambuwal into the race in the first instance.
While leaving the APC on August 1, he however catalogued some of the economic and security challenges he believed needed to be fixed by the next president.
Can he emerge the candidate of the PDP at the convention? That is a question for the delegates but then some have indicated that the PDP was looking forward to making age and youthfulness the main campaign issues of the next election to cut into Buhari’s perceived slow pace as a result of age.
Tambuwal’s undoing would be to rely on the support of the governors of the party who, unlike the usual PDP scenario, are very few this time. There are more states without governors that the states with governors, a situation that makes the delegates open to whoever campaigns more.
Senator Makarfi
He stabilised the party and gave it the life it has today by fighting the legal battle that secured victory for the mainstream party. On the basis of that, he is popular among the grassroots of the party. The fact that he had served in the strategic Senate Committee on Finance and worked alongside colleagues across the states also makes him a strong contender.
The contention, however, remains whether he can muster the needed support across the states among the majority of PDP delegates. He has also stated that he has restructuring on his agenda and being a former governor also grants him an advantage.
Will the PDP grant its former chairman the ticket? That’s the big question. He comes from North-West, like Buhari and also has good working relations with the structures of the party. He is sure to pose a good challenge for whoever will emerge at the end of the day.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
He is the leader of the Kwakwansiyya movement and has taken time to set up the structure across the states. He is also one of the leaders of the PDP that defected from the party to join the APC ahead of the 2015 election.
His strength in Kano base is seen as a plus for any candidate who is to beat Buhari but many have also stated that you need more than one state to win the presidency.
No doubt Kwakwanso has set up structures across the states and he appears to have established himself as a candidate to beat by drawing huge crowd at campaigns.
Whether the party would trust him with its ticket is another issue. He, however, appears to enjoy the backing of some leaders of the Coalition of United Political Parties(CUPP) who are believed to stand to play key roles in determining the candidates of the party.
While speaking at his formal declaration in Abuja, Kwakwanso touched on key sectors of the economy and the security situation, which he said demands immediate touch.
Kwakwanso said of his vision last week: “Today I declare that I am going to vie for the office of the president under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party.
“I stand on my honour to offer a paradigm shift in leadership. There is no gainsaying that all is not well with the polity. It is also clear that the same mind-set that created and escalated the problems cannot be used in resolving the on-going crises in our nationhood and national development.
“I offer positive change. Change has again become inevitable. To live is to witness changes because change is an inseparable part of living. Come May 2019, the narrative of helplessness, buck passing, division, poverty, insecurity and hopelessness must change to turn to a new dawn of confidence in building a one well restructured Nigeria.”
Bafarawa
The former Governor of Sokoto state is also one of the strong contenders in the 2019 race for the PDP ticket. He is seen as a mobiliser who would equally fall into the age bracket of the Atiku/Lamido camp. But he vision for a prosperous Nigeria, according to his insiders is never in doubt.
Besides the issue of age, he would have to contend with espousing his vision clearly to the grassroots of the party and also battle contenders like Atiku who have remained on the turf for so long.
Governor Dakwambo
He was at a time touted as the candidate of the PDP as the ground appeared bare for the party in the North. Some were of the view that being the only serving Governor from the North whose tenure would lapse in 2019, he could just clinch it. But more contenders have since entered the race. Now Dakwambo, who is believed to have strength in the North East would have to contend with the likes of Atiku, who is seen as having more followers than him in the South.
Will the class of governors swing it for Dakwambo? That is an issue but insiders contend that the influence of the governors might not come in as a handy vote-winning prospect unlike in times past. He cannot be classified as of the elders’ status, but sources say he has to further market himself across the states.
Sule Lamido
Former Governor Sule Lamido is one of the grassroots mobilisers of the North, who is also seen as one of the statesmen. He was believed to enjoy the backing of the likes of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in previous attempts at joining the race. This time, the situation is said to be diverse with interests cutting across many divides. Besides, one of the factors that would determine the presidential candidate is said to be vibrancy and clear world view on the economy. He is one aspirant who possesses the gift of the garb and can mobilise easily in the North. Whether his message has permeated the grassroots of the states across the country is yet to be seen.
Datti Baba-Ahmed
The Pro-Chancellor of Baze University Abuja is one of the egg heads in the race. He is one of the earliest to launch out with adverts announcing the 2019 contest. He is also one of the few contestants who have directly taken on President Buhari in the North. For instance he was quoted as saying that he possesses more integrity than Buhari and also insisted that he would run an efficient government if voted. He is an economist who believes he is aware of what the economy needs to pick up.
Whether his message has gone down well with leaders and followers of the PDP is another issue.
Tanimu Turaki, SAN
The former Minister is also one of the early birds in the race. The Kebbi state born lawyer however restricted his campaign to the social media for too long. Right now, he is seen as having taking the campaigns to the grassroots by meeting the stakeholders. He was once touted as the dark horse, being propelled by some powerful forces in the 2019 race while at another time, he was believed to be the face of the Ministers who served under former President Goodluck Jonathan.
He is pulling his own weight right now, whether the message is sinking well among the would-be delegates is another matter. Like those classified into the youth bracket, such as Saraki, Tambuwal, Datti Ahmed and Dakwambo, the Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) is also seen as someone with age on the side.
If the age factor would jell with the PDP delegates, he could as well be in contention, especially as he has not been linked with any known misdemeanour in recent years.
Malam Ibrahim Shekarau
The former Governor of Kano state is working with his successor, Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso to whittle down the APC influence in Kano. For that, he holds a serious appeal to the PDP faithful especially for standing firm against the Buhari tsunami of 2015. Having thrown his hat into
the ring for the 2019 race, Mallam Shekarau is however not resting on the strength of Kano. He has campaigned across the states and also holds a constituency in the class of former Ministers whom he worked with at the federal level.
The gentle former teacher is pulling his weight but whether he has impressed the would-be delegates enough is an issue. He is seen as one of the strong voices of the PDP and was believed to have been targeted early when he was dragged to court over 2015 campaign funds. It remains to be seen how the permutations of the power brokers and the configuration of the 2019 ticket would turn out in his favour, notwithstanding his loyalty to the party.
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