How far can Lanlehin, ADC go in Oyo State?

DARE ADEKANMBI looks at the projections of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the coming elections as well as the chances of its governorship candidate, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin and the many hurdles he has had to cross in his quest to govern the state from May 29, this year.

WITH two of the three serving Senators, six of the 14 current House of Representatives members and 14 out of 32 House of Assembly members in its fold, the Oyo State chapter of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) looks set to give the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) the most challenging contest in the February 16 and March 2 general election in the state.

Not only this, ADC is a coalition party into which large members of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Accord, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party and the entirety of the structure of the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), inspired by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, have fully dissolved into.

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Notable leaders across the zones in the state ply their political trade in ADC. Some of them include a former Secretary to the State Government and former national chairman of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Chief Michael Koleoso; another former SSG, Chief Layiwola Olakojo; a notable die-hard progressive, Dr Adebisi Busari; a former Deputy Governor and ex-Ambassador to Jordan and Iran, Taofeek Arapaja; ex-SSG, Dele Adigun; Hamid Gbadamosi, who is a former deputy governor; a former Commissioner for Environment, Chief Lowo Obisesan; former Labour Party chairman, Mr Gbenga Olayemi (Ariba); Chief Caleb Oyaniyi, among many others.

ADC was, from obscurity, shot into limelight as the leading opposition party in the state within APC and PDP could not effectively manage the crises that greeted the conduct of congresses for party leadership across the 351 wards and 33 councils. This left many to dump the PDP and APC for ADC, a young party which was already home to CNM members. The Labour Party, which came third in the 2015 elections, also teamed up to strengthen the coalition.

Like every other party in the state, ADC had its own teething problems to grapple with at its take off. During its congresses, there were hotly debated issues about who should get what in the party structure. The party survived what would have been an implosion consequently.

The next test for the party came during its nomination of candidates for elections. Due to the inadequacy of time and the non-resolution of some of the hitches that attended the congresses, ADC National Working Committee (NWC) settled for an admixture of consensus arrangement and automatic tickets for serving lawmakers in picking the candidates.

The most contentious of the nomination hitches was the choice of the party’s governorship candidate. The “four wise men” who were saddled with the task were not ready for a lucky-dip deal. After initial division, a consensus was reached on Senator Olufemi Lanlehin.

Those who struggled for the ticket with Senator Lanlehin consequently filed a suit at a Federal High Court in Abuja challenging the decision. The suit, following a memorandum of withdrawal signed by the aggrieved governorship aspirants, was on Friday struck out by the court. A national stalwart of ADC and former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, played a key role in the resolution of the crisis.

In the game of wits that attended the nomination process, a former governor of the state, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, who led PDP troops to ADC, left the party in December last year, although without his battalion and their commanders, who were ostensibly tired of gambling about platform and forum-shopping close to elections.

The lost-but-found cohesion in ADC has attracted a number of leaders and members from APC and PDP to the party. In Oyo town, a staunch progressive leaning political leader, M.D Bello and his troops numbering about 2, 000 joined the ADC. Also in Iwajowa Local Government Area, notable PDP stalwarts, seeing the big following of ADC in Oke-Ogun, joined the ADC recently.

Lanlehin’s campaign and the gospel of paradigm shift in governance

Since the well-attended flag off of his campaign in Iseyin on Christmas eve, Lanlehin has traversed all the five local government councils in Ogbomosho, all the 10 councils in Oke-Ogun, visited Ibarapa and largely Ibadan city and less city council areas.

One unique feature of the campaign, according to him, is that he does not mobilise people from other councils to any local government he is visiting. “We are using this to measure our strength across all zones and council areas. We have toured Oke-Ogun and I can tell you that ADC is very solid in that zone. We have been to Oyo Federal Constituency where we also saw that ADC is fully on the ground there. In Ibarapa and Ogbomosho zones, our presence is greatly felt there too.

“In Ibadan, where we have only done a couple of council areas, ADC remains the party to beat. We are not resting on our oars and popularity. We are still working hard day and night to ensure we win the elections convincingly,” Lanlehin said.

Speaking at Saki town hall where he was welcomed by a large crowd last Wednesday, Lanlehin promised to govern the state in a way that will bring development to all parts irrespective of locations. He also promised to ensure qualified local contractors who will in turn make use of local artisans are given jobs to do. This, he said, would boost the economy of the state and help check capital flight.

“We shall complete all ongoing road projects in the state and even commence new ones, so we can restore comfort to our people here.  Oke-Ogun Polytechnic is very crucial to the economy of Saki and environs, and that’s why we’ll adequately fund it, so that that institution will receive life.”

Promising other pro-people programmes, Lanlehin assured the people of a government that prioritises free and qualitative education, affordable healthcare anchored on functional primary healthcare centres, and the reintroduction of farm settlements to be complemented by cottage industries.

Alhaji Muslim Oyedemi, a party chieftain, reminded the crowd that the presence of erstwhile governorship aspirants like Ambassador Arapaja, Chief Obisesan, Honourable Adegoke, Senator Babalola, and Chief Opatoki, has put to lie all opposition claims of disharmony within the ADC.

At his campaign rally in Ogbooro, Saki East Local Government Area, Lanlehin berated the state government for doing nothing for the community, despite it being the current deputy governor’s town, promising to turnaround the fortunes of the community in line with his even development agenda.

Meanwhile, Lanlehin has promised that by December 2019, the people of Iseyin will have that their dream of having a tertiary institution materialise.  Lanlehin, speaking at a campaign rally held at the Aseyin Palace Square, Iseyin, assured them that, “by God’s grace, and your support, my deputy and I will ensure that by December, you have your tertiary institution.”

ADC’s projections

Given its spread across all the zones in the state, ADC leaders and tacticians believe the party looks good to win the three senatorial seats or worst case scenario grab two, win at least eight House of Representatives seats and a minimum least 20 House of seats and consequently the governorship seat.

In Oyo North Senatorial, its candidate, Bayo Lawal, a lawyer and former Justice Commissioner in the administration of the late Lam Adesina, got a massive boost for his aspiration last week, as the Oke-Ogun Development Consultative Forum (ODCF), reaffirmed its endorsement of the ADC candidate as the preferred candidate of the 10-council zone. In fact, ODCF produced a radio jingle asking all Oke-Ogun residents, irrespective of party affiliation, to vote en mass for Lawal. ODCF has also been doing massive mobilization of the people of the zone for the ADC candidate.

For Oyo South, the incumbent Senator Soji Akanbi of ADC faces the current governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, in what has been regarded as the toughest contest in the senatorial race. ADC and APC each has two sitting Representatives cutting across seven of the nine councils in the district. Senator Akanbi sees the contest between him and his former leader as akin to the biblical contest between David and Goliath. A number of smaller parties are in coalition talks with Akanbi who has been endorsed by several groups in his quest to be re-elected.

Incumbent Senator Monsurat Sunmon, who is ADC senatorial candidate for Oyo Central, is also projected to get re-elected, although some analysts believe she is in for a big fight with the PDP candidate, Chief Bisi Ilaka, who hails from the same Oyo town with her.

The Director-General of the Lanlehin Campaign Organisation, Alhaji Bashir Lawal, gives an overview of the party’s acceptance across the five zones in the state. “From what we saw for ourselves during the campaign across the zones, ADC is massively accepted in four out of the five zones. We are only averagely accepted in Ogbomosho, due to the factor of the former governor of the state, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala, who is a titan in the state politics.

“Our chances are very bright, I can tell you. ADC will do very well in next Saturday’s election. We are sure of winning the three seats on offer; at least eight House of Representatives seats and of course, the easiest for us, 20 House of Assembly seats, with the governorship as the crowning glory. After the first election, our talks with other opposition parties will resume in our resoluteness to send APC packing from the state and Government House,” Lawal said.