Guber poll ignites new war among power brokers

On Saturday, March 9, Nigerians go out again to the polls, but this time to elect governors and members of states Houses of Assembly across the states. Bola Badmus, Stephen Gbadamosi, Jude Ossai, Biola Azeez, Iniobong Ekponta, Kola Oyelere and Dare Adekanmbi take a look at the likely battle among contenders in some of the states where an election will take place.

 

Quite a number of leading politicians are still taking stock of their gains and losses after the February 23 presidential and National Assembly elections. While some are ecstatic about the results, others are sulking over the outcome, following the string of surprises emanating from states. However, a common denominator among all the camps of the political buffs is their decision to re-strategise ahead the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections coming up next Saturday across the country.

Though the camps that appear upbeat, in terms of ecstasy after the last poll, remain optimistic about victory in the upcoming elections, they are assiduously working to expand their network of political structures that could further boost their chances. But the pressure seems to be more in the camps of some political bigwigs and their parties whose political empire appeared worst-hit by the wave of surprises and shock, based on the results of the presidential and National Assembly polls.

Leading lights in the affected parties are spearheading talks on possible formation of alliances and other forms of collaborations designed to either defeat incumbent governors or and their proxies or control the majority in the number of seats in state Houses of Assembly. The intensity and variants of the intrigues, alliances and realignments vary from state to state, geopolitical zones and power blocs across the parties. In some states, the major power brokers and their allies are playing down ongoing talks about the collaboration, just as others seem to be at crossroads on such partnership because of immediate-past political experience, with some citing the uncertainties that surround similar political collaboration that played out during the staggered governorship election in some states last year.

However, the desirability of a synergy among the parties has kept all the top stakeholders across the senatorial zones busy, with the Presidency showing more than a passing interest in what goes in the All Progressives Congress (APC)-controlled states.

The following is the situation of things in some selected states of the federation where preparations are in top gear towards the Saturday elections.

Odds favour Ugwuanyi in Enugu

In Enugu State, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the APC are the two major political parties with serious candidates vying for gubernatorial seat as other political parties had since joined the PDP campaign train to see that the dream of re-electing Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi becomes a reality on March 9.

As a matter of fact, the result of elections of the presidential and National Assembly described by many Enugu residents as most peaceful was greeted with mixed feelings in the state after the declaration of President Muhammadu Buhari as winner by the chairman of INEC, Professor Yakubu, as many of the voters in Enugu found difficult to swallow the bitter pill of defeat.

However, investigation revealed that the result of the presidential poll would sway the votes for the PDP candidate (Ugwuanyi) at the governorship election as many of the electorate, as well as political heavyweights across the three senatorial zones, including Chief Jim Nwobodo, the re-elected Deputy President of the Senate, Ike Ekweremadu and Dr Chimaroke Nnamani, are still drumming support for him.

Further findings showed that other candidates, including Senator Ayogu Eze of the APC, the closest rival, apart from being scored low in human relations and compassion, have to contend with the protracted internal squabble engulfing his party in the state and also convince the electorate with the little time before the poll that he is the authentic standard-bearer of his party and not George Ohara who an Abuja High Court presided over by Justice Inyang Ekwo had on February 5, declared as the winner of the APC primary held in Enugu and pronounced him the standard-bearer of the party in the state for the March 9 poll.

Governor Ugwunayi, who is not known to be an overbearing leader, may also not want to engage in fights or political battles. But besides the humility issue, he has shown his mastery of the game as he has subtly brought the major power blocs and stakeholders into one fold with his profile rising each passing day.

For many Enugu residents, Ugwuanyi has maintained an unprecedented working relationship with opposition parties in the state to an extent that most of them prefer him to their own parties’ candidates.

According to a political analyst, Comrade Petrus Obi, “Ugwuanyi has further broken the bounds of popularity with his recent door-to-door campaign tours across the state. The turnout has been overwhelming; a sure evidence of his acceptability and high score in human relations.

“Ugwuanyi’s smooth ride to victory appears to have further been boosted by the crisis in the APC where a court judgment on the guber nomination may have rather created more confusion. Both Senator Ayogu Eze who was deposed by the court and George Ogara declared as the authentic candidate are still laying claim to the position.

“In the absence of any clear contestant from the main opposition party, APC, and total absence of genuine opposition, Enugu people might have adopted the motion for outright Ugwuanyi’s victory.”

 

Ogun in the throes of Amosun’s grip

The governorship election in Ogun State, analysts have said, will largely have the imprimatur of the current state governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun. The governor, who delivered the presidential election to his party, the APC, and went ahead to clinch a senatorial seat of the state, is not in support of the party’s governorship candidate, Prince Dapo Abiodun. His candidate is Abdulkabir Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement.

APC’s Abiodun was said to have worked assiduously to contribute to President Buhari’s victory in Ogun State. He was said to have secured his Ogun-East Senatorial district to give the president very substantial votes.

However, political pundits have said the governorship election would be a different ball game. Reasons are that in Ogun-East where Abiodun, believed to have been imposed on members of the Ogun APC by the leadership of the party at the centre, two candidates are rooting for the PDP. These are PDP-recognised Honourable Ladi Adebutu and Senator Buruji Kashamu, recognised by the INEC. While Abiodun wwill be the lone ranger in Ogun-East for the APC, the PDP will have two strong candidates working for it.

Besides, the people of Ogun West, where the candidate of the APM, backed by Governor Amosun, hails from, are believed to have the support of a large percentage of the state to produce the next governor, have not produced one since the inception of the state. But it is not only Aklinlade that is contesting from this senatorial zone.

The candidate belived to have the support of the elders of the Ogun-West senatorial district is Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI), candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Indeed, the Ogun-West Elders’ Forum recently endorsed him as the preferred of the five governorship candidates that emerged from the zone. Being a popular, notable and two-time contender for the governorship post, and having the support of people like former President Olusegun Obasanjo in the kitty, GNI is also a strong contender in the race.

Oyo’s two-horse race

In Oyo State, the governorship contest has been narrowed down to a two-horse race between APC’s Bayo Adelabu and PDP’s Seyi Makinde. The outcome of the February 23 presidential and National Assembly election made it so. Prior to the election, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin’s party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), was regarded as a major force in the election.

APC won two of the three Senate seats in the state, while PDP’s candidate, Dr Kola Balogun, won the remaining seat. The APC won nine out of the 14 House of Representatives seats, while PDP won four, just as Action Democratic Party (ADP) of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala’s clinched just one seat.

The defeat of Ajimobi by PDP’s Balogun in the nine-council district was a major blow for the APC. Oyo South district comprising six councils in Ibadan and three in Ibarapa zone has the highest number of voters and is very critical to winning the governorship of the state. In Oyo Central, one of the two districts won by APC, PDP’s candidate, Chief Bisi Ilaka gave APC a strong challenge losing narrowly.

Since the February election, APC leadership outside the state has seen the need to fortify itself to retain control of the headquarters of South-West politics. The APC leaders appear to have struck a deal with a former governor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, who is the governorship candidate of the ADP. He dumped the APC after alleged maltreatment during the primaries of the party last September. He is, however, back in the party he swore would never succeed itself, APC, less than six months after he called it quits with the ruling party.

But the deal with Alao-Akala, who once bestrode the five-council Ogbomoso zone like a colossus, is reportedly not resonating with the people of the zone. The zone appears fed up with the APC government, particularly because of the crisis rocking the Ladoke Akintola University (LAUTECH) which has been the spark-giver for the economy of the zone. LAUTECH remains the most troubled state-owned institution in the country. The former governor has also come under serious attacks from the people of the zone who chided him for pursuing personal interest at the expense of communal goal.

Leading the pack for the remaining opposition leaders is another former governor, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, who leads the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) into the coalition talks. The candidates who have shown keen interest in making the coalition work are Senator Lanlehin of ADC; Chief Sharafadeen Alli of ZLP; and Bolaji Ayorinde of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Feelers from inner sources in the coalition talks appear to favour Makinde of the PDP whose adoption as the consensus candidate appears a matter of hours. Power brokers in the know claimed his party, PDP, met the criterion that the opposition party that posted the best result should be adopted for consensus arrangement. Second, he has the war chest required to prosecute what pundits have dubbed the most expensive governorship election in the history of the pace-setter state. Makinde is also loved by those who want APC out at all cost.

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How the battles will be fought in the zones

In the state, there are five zones namely Ibadan (11 councils), Ibarapa (three councils), Oyo (four councils), Oke-Ogun (10 councils) and Ogbomoso with five council areas.

Regardless of the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly election, next Saturday’s poll will not be a clear cut contest for either the APC or PDP.

By now, it is expected that the APC would have taken stock of the various incidents that shaped the last election and plugged all loopholes.

Similarly, the PDP knowing fully that APC would seek restitution by all means possible, will have to contend with having to battle both the federal and state might as well as  very hostile security agencies during the election.

Nonetheless, the election will be won by the party that can control the massive 54.8 per cent votes in Ibadan Area and a large chunk of Ibarapa and Oke-Ogun votes.

 

In Kwara, it’s still Bukola versus others

To a large extent, in Kwara State, there is no new permutation or alliance among the two leading political parties, namely the APC and PDP. Information gathered, however, was suggestive of sustenance of already existing relationships among the parties prior to the last presidential and National Assembly elections.

It was gathered that political parties that make up the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) in the state had been in alliance with the ruling PDP, excepting some of the parties like the Labour Party (LP) and the Accord.

The CNPP in Kwara state had, all along, chorused views of the PDP in such instances when the APC had attacked or criticised policies or actions of the PDP-led government in the state. Recently, the CNPP called a press conference to criticise the arrest and purported detention of Senator Rafiu Ibrahim of the PDP, who was arrested 48 hours before last presidential election.

On the other hand, the LP governorship candidate in the state, Comrade Issa Aremu, had supported the presidential candidate of the APC, President Muhammadu Buhari, a view shared by his supporters in the state.

Speaking with the state chairman of the APC in Kwara State, Honourable Bashir Bolarinwa, our reporter learnt that the door of the party remained open to all willing political parties “to ensure victory for the party in the governorship and House of Assembly elections.”

Boolarinwa confirmed that there had been alliance with about 25 political parties, prior to presidential and National Assembly elections, adding that some other political parties not in the alliance were coming forward to seek collaboration.

Also speaking, the public relations officer of the PDP, Tunde Ashaolu, said the party had been working together with other members of the CNPP in the state, adding that there was no new alliance with political parties in the state.

Thus, with the defeat suffered by the Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki at the senatorial election, it is believed that, not wanting to lose all, the senator might want to deploy all available Arsenal to ensure the victory of his anointed candidate in the PDP in the governorship election, Mr Rasak Atunwa.

 

A’Ibom: Presidential, NASS polls to be decider?

The outcome of the presidential and National Assembly polls in Akwa Ibom state went in favour of the PDP. Thus, the opposition APC rejected the results. PDP swept the three senatorial slots as well as the 10 federal constituencies in an election generally seen as being peaceful.

Besides, out of the 31 local government areas of the state, the PDP won in 28, while the APC could only secure a paltry result in Mbo and Essien Udim local government areas. The result of Udung Uko was cancelled.

The incumbent governor, Emmanuel Udom, who remained in the PDP when his former boss and now APC chieftain, Godswill Akpabio, left him in the cold, was perceived as the underdog in the election.

However, the result of the presidential and National Assembly elections have made a lot of analysts to be contemplating a rethink. While it is believed that Senator Akpabio, who lost reelection and failed to deliver the state to the APC, might be thinking of giving all that he has left to win the governorship election on Saturday, as a face-saving means, it has also been said that Udom will want to consolidate on his latest victory and stamp his feet on ground as, perhaps, the new political authority in the state.

Watchers of event think that Udom has the aces as regards the Saturday governorship poll, considering that his party, PDP, has virtually all the National Assembly positions in the kitty.

 

It’s a two-horse race in Lagos

Political watchers belive that Lagos has become a perennial turf for a two-horse race with the APC and the PDP re-enacting their rivalry at each election. Even though the gladiators behind the ruling APC had always triumphed in such elections, leaders of the main opposition party have consistently given the former a run for their money.

Perhaps, there is no other time that the PDP has posed more serious threat to the status quo than now, going by the result of the number of votes it was able to garner in the last presidential poll. Whereas the APC polled 580, 825 votes, the PDP got 448, 015. This figuration has led to various permutations within the political circle in the state with some observers predicting a keener contest between the candidate of the APC, Babajide Sanwo-Olu and that of PDP, Mr Jimi Agbaje, in next Saturday’s governorship poll.

The propositions have been further bolstered by the seeming groundswell of opposition by a coalition of forces against what it considers as the strangulating hold of a particular power bloc on the state since May 29, 1999. The prime target of the coalition in its quest to alter the power calculus of the state seems to be the national leader of the APC, Senator Bola Tinubu, whose image looms large over the politics of the state. He not only reportedly enthrones governors in neighbouring South-West states, but also has footsoldiers in the state House of Assembly and the National Assembly, including his wife, Senator Oluremi.

Conversely, mutual distrust and suspicion constitutes the major obstacle in the quest by the opposition, especially PDP to dislodge the APC and its power brokers from Alausa, the seat of government power. Lack of compromise, unanimity of purpose, indiscretion and primordial sentiments among the leaders have continued to throw spanner into the works of the party at very crucial periods.

Agbaje, as the standard-bearer of the PDP in the coming election, is becoming the rallying force for the opposition parties as a number of them have keyed into his campaign, to which a number of mass-based organisations, some of which have ethnic inclinations, have lent their voices and support.

Places like  Ajegunle, Amuwo-Odofin, Oshodi-Isolo, as well as Ojoo, FESTAC and parts of  Ajah and Ibeju Lekki have truned to thetare of major political contest between the APC and the PDP in recent times.

Findings are already showing that a new group, Orange Movement, with the slogan “Otoge Lagos” literally translating to setting Lagos free from Bourdillon boundage, is a formation of coalition of political parties in the state and a vehicle through which the PDP, in collaboration with others, including civil society groups, wants to win both the coming governorship and House of Assembly polls.

The political battlefield, however, is open for the two leading parties, and until the exercise is over, there is not likely going to be any rest for either.

 

Fresh permutations, alliances in Kano

After the presidential election, the question on the lips of many people in Kano State is whether or not the race would have a bandwagon effect. Is the governorship election also going to spring surprise?

Though the outcome of the presidential election in Kano State may not be totally unexpected, being a political stronghold of President Buhari, many think things might not follow the same pattern on Saturday.

Factors that worked for the presidential election, and may also do for next Saturday election, include the calibre of contestants for the various elective positions and the result they brought in.

There is Ibrahim Shekarau, a former governor, who ruled the state for uninterrupted eight years and remains a force to be reckoned with among the masses of the state. He is believed to have played a significant role in the emergence of the president-elect.

Now, with the state election, where all politicians are expected to “secure their bases,” there question in Kano is whether incumbent Governor Umar Ganduje will retain his position and rule for another four years. But many observers equally believe that we might be expecting a new governor from among those highly-rated citizens lined up to contest with against Ganduje.

Going by the projects that Ganduje has executed, many residents of the state believe that he deserves to continue in office.

Besides, with the result of the last election where Buhari and the APC won in Kano, it is widely believed that the emergence of President Buhari in the presidential election will, automatically, add political value to APC in Saturday election.

Buttressing the foregoing, while speaking with a cross section of people in the state, in respect of the governorship election, most residents of the state gave it to the incumbent governor, Dr. Ganduje. One of leading chieftains of the APC, Alhaji Ilyasu Kwankwaso, believed that the last presidential election result had cleared the air on the expected results of the governorship election.

According to him, most of “the big fishes” who were earlier with former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso had left the party. He cited people like former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Alhaji Aminu Dabo and a former deputy governor, Professor Hafiz Abubakar. The professor had earlier resigned as deputy governor and defected to the PDP. But he had again dumped Senator Kwankwaso in the PDP and returned to the APC.

Also, former governor, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who was one of the strong chieftains of the PDP, has not only left the PDP, but has also been elected as senator to represent Kano Central federal constituency on the ticket of the APC.

Obviously, with all these forces teaming up with the ruling APC, it has been argued, the coast is clear for Dr. Ganduje to emerge as governor for another four years.

But notwithstanding the seeming good political fortune of the governor in the election, some other analysts have pointed out that the governor has a blighted credibility, going by the alleged bribery allegation recently leveled against him. Analysts think the matter may have made some enemies for Ganduje among the voters in the state.

In the same vein, according to findings, the teeming masses of the state have, a long time ago, resolved to cast their presidential vote for President Buhari, while they vowed to give their governorship votes to the candidate of the PDP, Abba Kabir Yusuf.

A Sunday Tribune source, who craved to be anonymous, disclosed that come March 9, the people of the state would give surprise votes to Alhaji Yusuf.

Many analysts have said that out of the leading opposition governorship candidates, Yusuf stands the best to support. Their expressed belief is that Mallam Sagir Takai, Alhaji Muhammed Abacha of the Advanced Peoples democratic Alliance (APDA) and Abdulsalam Abubakar of the Green Party could not defeat the incumbent governor.

Based on this reasoning, our source hinted that most of PDP stakeholders were already reaching out to some of these governorship candidates to “tactically step down” and ask their supporters to support the candidate of the PDP.

Our finding also revealed that as of the time of filling this report, modalities for sharing of political positions were being silently worked upon.

Another issue is that Senator Kwankwaso, being that his preferred presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, lost in the election, spoke recently on a local radio station, describing the election as “a daylight robbery” and vowed that his party would “shine our eyes during the forthcoming governorship election” and not allow a repeat of such result.

However, further finding indicated that most PDP members are not happy with elders of the party over alleged funds allocated to finance last presidential election but which failed to reach “the people for whom the funds were meant.” These aggrieved members have allegedly reached out to some elders of the ruling party and indicated their readiness to work for the APC. They are said to be viewing this as a way of expressing their displeasure over the way they were treated