Goose, gander and next Muslim Governor of Lagos

PREORDAINED I believe, the six elected governors in the existence of Lagos State are halved in the middle by the two major religions; Christianity and Islam. Lateef Jakande (Muslim), Michael Otedola (Christian), Bola Tinubu (Muslim), Raji Fashola (Muslim), Akinwunmi Ambode (Christian) and the incumbent Jide Sanwoolu (Christian). Indigenous Lagosians crusading for ti wa nti wa (son of the soil leadership) will insist that the six, are also split in the median by the indigenes and Yoruba settlers in the state. They name names but this isn’t a genealogy thesis or a parade of Eko consanguinity. At least, none of those listed in the atohun rinwa or ajeji (settlers) column was ruled constitutionally unqualified to serve. The rest is what a friend, will call iregbe (trivial chatter).

Lagos is reputed the most cosmopolitan in Nigeria but modernity hardly erases tribal. Omo Eko Pataki (aboriginal leaders) are shouting but their efforts to be heard and taken seriously, appear like a dumb whistling. A supposed Eko tribal leader recently described them to me as Generals without troops and disgruntled people with adulterated agenda. When I asked if he was no longer one of them, he did what Peter did to Jesus during his trial, though no cock crowed thrice this time. Even if a cock did, there was no guilt trip for him. With the vehemence of his repudiation, he had no shame confessing his own stood no chance against the ruling settlers, especially of the Yoruba stock who have been greatly empowered and enhanced since the governorship days of today’s President. You can’t even call the feather-ruffler a Judas, because he has also been Isacrioted by fellow elite aborigines in the past. Maybe we just take it the centre isn’t holding any longer for the wailing natives and the front-row leaders are gorging one another’s eyes for dinner. So sad.

If the political class in the state is acting as not big on the tribal and indigene/settler dichotomy, at least, it has stopped the pretend of not bothering about the faith professed by those who occupy Alausa, though the bother may not be as big a factor as it is in neighbouring Oyo State, which some interests are trying to deconstruct as a Muslim state.

As term-limit Governor Sanwoolu winds down, awa lo kan (it’s our turn) agitators are dialing into political discourses about 2027 governorship race in the state and turning up the volume of their persuasions. Not surprising, Eko aborigines are barely audible, not after the rout they received in the hand of Aso Rock in the Lasbat speakership fiasco and the re-enthronement of Ogun-born Mudashiru Obasa as the state’s third citizen and perhaps, its most consequential politician today after the President. The only meaningful tribal discourse and projection in the 2027 race is the outsize role of South Easterners living and voting in Lagos and how they nearly torpedoed the Alausa calculi in 2023, after they led the Obidient Movement that handed the apex leader of the ruling establishment, his first ballot defeat in the state and coincidentally, while on the ballot as the presidential candidate of the ruling party. It doesn’t get bigger and better than that.

In the course of the week, I learnt the Lagos ruling establishment is working on sorting the Ndigbo conundrum in the state. One of the reported political solutions is moving all the big markets they dominate to the outskirts of the state, especially the Epe axis, making profitable commerce and political funding not easily accessible to their leaders who reportedly fund anti-Tinubu campaigns in the state. Another idea is said to be refusing them Certificate of Occupancy on land they acquire, thereby limiting their claims of being major stakeholders in the state. If possible, the second idea is primed to be race-wide across Yoruba land. Well, after a back-and-forth, the political leader and I parted without a concurrence though his persistent argument that you can demand from me what you can’t give, isn’t without merit. He kept asking me if an average Yoruba can try in Enugu or Owerri what Ibos are doing in Lagos, tasking the media, particularly columnists who are of Oduduwa race to stop being idealistic by way of hammering what it should be instead of what it is. He is all in for the President’s re-election, rhetorically doing the Ebenezer Obey thing “ki ni enikan se teni kan o se ri” in his comparative analysis of the Tinubu time and Jonathan/Buhari era. He won’t buy my argument that Tinubu was voted to not be like them, particularly his immediate predecessor.

For many with buyer’s remorse now, religion was a big factor in voting Tinubu in Lagos. And the faith dimension to the turn-by-turn in the tenancy of Alausa isn’t going away as 2027 builds up. After two Muslim governors between 1999 and 2015 and two Christian governors between 2019 and now (hopefully till 2027 though Sanwoolu is reportedly a target of impeachment), it should be a no-brainer that the next governor ought to be a Muslim, in a state with mostly Muslim natives and largely Christian settlers. 

But there is another angle to the faith argument. While the two Muslim governors Tinubu and Fashola (some will joke they had joint tickets since their wives are Christians) spent a cumulative of 16 years, the safe conclusion of Sanwoolu’s second term will only give the Christian community a total of 12 years, leading to some agitators calling for four more years for a Christian successor to Sanwoolu, to balance the equation. The argument was further stretched that pre-1999, while the Muslim governor in Jakande had a little over four years, his Christian counterpart; Otedola, had just about 22 months in office before the republic was terminated. 

On the strength of these claims, the candidature of a former governor is being surreptitiously anchored, though in the open the various groups drumming his return are alluding to his undeniable accomplishments, especially in the area of public facilities and infrastructure generally. I’m leaving his name out to not be seen as part of his orchestra. The fact that he is constitutional consigned to seeking just a term more, is playing to his favour, though it is still early in the day to predict where the pendulum will swing considering the bigger picture of the President’s crucial re-election project in the state he always carried for others until it was his turn. Notwithstanding, Muslims too are reported lining up their “own”, with two names featuring prominently; Obasa and a serving senator.

The Lagos scenario is mirroring the reported dilemma of North’s ruling establishment in the handling of the Tinubu challenge. Beyond his re-election, Northern leaders are said to be wary of Tinubu foisting a Northern successor on them when done with his two terms, which would be a reversal of what North has always done with the South when the presidency rotates down Nigeria map. Now, the North is reportedly faced with either getting a Southerner, constitutionally barred to seek another term in 2031 to cancel Tinubu in 2027 and who would let the upper Nigeria choose its own candidate in 2031, or back Tinubu with an understanding to allow North choose its own candidate to succeed the President. The frenetic consolidation of Southern solidarity for Tinubu across party lines, akin to the North lining behind Buhari in 2015 against Southern Goodluck Jonathan, regardless of tongue, party and religious diversities, is the clearest indication that North and Tinubu may not be ending with any concrete agreement on either 2027 or 2031. It leaves the zone with the singular option of defeating the President at all costs with a Southerner who will return power and all its accoutrement to the North in 2031.

Just like the Lagos one-term Governor, one-term President Goodluck Jonathan is reportedly the target of those cooking the Bola Tinubu’s Aso Rock premature exit. However, there is the problem of constitutional provision concerning Presidents and Governors who inherited office (like the Ondo man who can’t vie again) and then the taciturnity of the Otuoke gentleman. You don’t know when he wants something or not but it would be a treat having something close to Obasanjo v Falae in 1999 when the North had to cast the “tie-breaker” vote, only that this time, it would be a two first-termers, running on their records though the election would be more of a referendum on Tinubu’s (mis)handling of Nigeria since 2023.

I somewhat find an intriguing side to the scorching of the media by the anti-Igbo Yoruba leader I referenced above. Maybe the Southern media truly is too fixated on the utopian, minting fantasies with pen and paper, because the people for whom the ideal is sought, appear to revel in the political games undermining their collective wellbeing. Permutations of the political class, whether race, faith, ethnicity, tribal or regional, have always been about grabbing power and running away with it. The welfare of the people is down the perking order but they have a way of sucking the people into their power agenda, tapping into group or communal emotions that serve immediate political purposes. In Lagos the fervent anti-Igbo campaign is dressed in Yoruba nationalism garb though underneath is undiluted struggle to maintain status quo ante bellum in political power equation in the state. Same for those pushing the faith narrative. You can hardly find a genuine Christian/Muslim among the advocates but having a practising Christian/Muslim (not necessarily a true born-again child of God or pious Muslim) in Alausa, is an access card and a meal ticket for them. This group includes religious leaders and organizations, which I don’t have to mention. But the people seem to enjoy the game politicians play with their existence and their serial breach of public trust once in office and will still go in drove to listen to soap box talks they know are loads of baloney.

Since 1999, today’s President, even as a private citizen, has sat atop the power broth in the state, dishing atimes on a whim. Now, he is best-positioned ever to dictate who flies the ruling party’s flag and influence the outcome of the election proper. But the people can choose to have a say, casting aside asunder persuasions and uniting behind a common good. It looks impossible but there was a people’s verdict in 2023 presidential election in the state. It means Lagosians can elect their governor if they so desire, even when tribe and tongue still differ. In all the frenzy, the corner of the deputy governor, Femi Hamzat, a Muslim, has been unusually quiet. In 2015, he almost upended Tinubu’s dominance, when he primaried Ambode, then-Bourdillion’s anointed, grit for grit. He came a close second when he was just a commissioner in Fashola’s administration. Now, he is the number two citizen. Will he run or run away if he isn’t Abuja’s anointed again?

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