Fashola’s claim on improved power supply

The  Minister of  Power, Works  and  Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, has said that Nigerians currently enjoy better electricity supply than in the past. He disclosed this at the April 2018 edition of the monthly power sector operators’ meeting in Umuahia, Abia State, announcing that the claim was based on the feedback he had received from consumers. He went further to emphasise that “right-thinking Nigerians” had revealed to him that they now spent less amount of money to power their alternative sources of electricity and enjoyed a good supply from the national grid.

The minister went further to congratulate himself and his colleagues in the ministry. He said: “Even if those who were most vocal in condemnation when the situation appeared very dire are now uttering some muted acknowledgment that it has improved, we must continue to draw inspiration from well-meaning and right-thinking Nigerians who were gracious enough to publicly acknowledge that they are saving some money from the diesel they used to buy to power generators. They are running their generators for fewer hours and they are getting comparably more power than before. It is because of those gracious and well-meaning and right-thinking Nigerians that we must dig deeper, work harder and be more determined to improve service delivery.”

These claims by the minister are not only very curious but  also disturbing given the fact that the foundation on which they are based is questionable and  smacks of a deliberate attempt to mislead and misinform the populace. This is the case when the available statistics from the government are reviewed. The claims also contradict developments in the manufacturing sector, as gleaned from information provided by the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN). Statistics from the Advisory Power Team in the Office of the vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, show that from January 1 to April 14, the country produced a total of 400,171 megawatts (MW) of electricity. This amounts to an average daily generation and supply of 3,847.8MW.

During this period, it recorded a shortfall in the generation of 261,944MW of power due to a combination of gas, water, transmission and distribution constraints, bringing its average daily power loss to 2,518.7MW. For the 104 days, a total of N125.774 billion was lost by the sector, representing an average daily financial loss of N1.209 billion. The country experienced a partial systems collapse on April 12. In February 2018, MAN disclosed that the daily amount of electricity consumed by its members as they carried out their operations had risen to 14,882MW. But it emphasised that  most of the additions to supply were self-generated. It lamented that the 2000MW of electricity generated by private electricity generation companies (Gencos) were stranded because electricity distribution companies (Discos) were unable to evacuate them to points of need. This occurred in a context of severe de-industrialisation as a result of the increasing cost of production ascribed to poor supply of electricity.  In the last few years, the de-industrialisation process has accelerated with the relocation of manufacturing concerns from Nigeria to places like Ghana in the West African sub-region.

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As the minister knows, there are several issues associated with the transmission and distribution of electricity that make any confident claim on improvement in electricity consumption suspect. A few examples: distribution across the country is uneven, there are severe equipment issues in transmission and distribution; there are several communities across the country that are kept in darkness for months as a result of transformer problems, and there are several parts of the country that are yet to be reached with electricity from the national grid. In addition, the minister failed to provide statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) concerning energy consumption across the country. Instead, he elected to depend on his friends whom he described as “right-thinking Nigerians” for information.  This is unfortunate.

Besides, to  claim that the supply of electricity has improved because Nigerians are spending less on petrol and diesel for their generators is fallacious. This is the case because Nigerians have tightened their belts because of the harsh economic realities and the fall in the purchasing power of  the  average  Nigerian who suffers from the inflationary pressure arising from the devaluation of the naira without an upward review of salaries since 2015 when the current government came to power. In addition, commonsense teaches that if increase in power generation does not match increase in population growth and consequent increase in demand for power, such increase would not make a significant change in average consumption.

Minister Fashola is too disconnected from reality. Even if the country generates 10,000MW of electricity today, it does not have the technological backbone to transmit and distribute it to  its 198 million people. Before assuming office as minister, in the days of electioneering, Fashola had argued that “constant electricity is no rocket science.” Now, after several years as the minister responsible for electricity, he is failing to acknowledge the failings of the sector. We expect Fashola to explain the persistent power failure and why, in spite of his efforts or mistakes, the situation is yet to record remarkable improvement. He must refrain from living in a state of denial.  The delivery of electricity will not improve because the minister says so. Something more effective needs to be done to see to such improvement. Evidently, this is yet to be done.