Emefiele: A cloud of confusion

IF there is any story that has created palpable tension in the polity, it is that of the ongoing macabre drama involving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele. Ideally, apex bank governors are hardly heard because of the expected repercussions on the economy, but these are tempestuous times. News around the governor of money seems to be confused: the police are laying a siege to his Abuja office and then, per the Force Headquarters, they are not. Operatives of the Department of State Services (DSS), which approached the court of law to detain Emefiele for, of all things, terror financing, are found armed to the teeth, lying in wait for the money manager, but then, we are told, they are not. A High Court of the Federal Capital Territory barred the DSS and the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Baba, from arresting and detaining him over the alleged trumped-up allegation against him, but another court asked him to appear before it on another case.  The allegations against the CBN boss–terrorism financing, diversion of revenue, agricultural loans and fraudulent practices in forex transactions—are so grave as to urge a presidential statement, particularly given that an officer of the state as high as the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) was unceremonioulsy removed for alleged acts of corruption, but none has been forthcoming. And so the polity is suffused with news of the planned arrest, or the lack thereof, of the money governor, and even senior advocates are being driven into a frenzy.

In a statement this week, Lagos lawyer, Ebun Adegboruwa (SAN), declared that a public officer could not be above probe or the law if there was indeed a case for him to answer, wondering what the drama around Emefiele was all about. Said Adegboruwa: “There is no need for the seemingly unending drama between Mr. Emefiele, the DSS and the Presidency, unless of course it is part of the hidden agenda.” Recalling how the DSS sought a court order to arrest and investigate Emefiele but was “greatly embarrassed”, the senior lawyer declared that it was “better to make everything plain and open to the Nigerian people”, a theme taken up by another senior advocate, Mr. Femi Falana, who declared that the secret police did not even require a court order to detain the apex bank boss.  Falana said: “A government must not engage in cheap blackmail. I am completely flabbergasted that the president of our country has not intervened either to call the State Security Service to order or to order Mr Emefiele to return to the country or be fired. But we can’t go on like this as if we are operating in a Banana Republic. It’s so embarrassing. If I were the president, I would take control of the country.” But why is the presidency not taking charge? And who indeed is the presidency?

Nigerians are left in a daze even as the secret police reportedly zeroes in on how the Deposit Money Banks allocate the scarce foreign exchange and the criteria for the allocation. The scarcity of foreign exchange coupled with the multiple exchange rates and the opaque nature of the allocation is said to have led to charges that only a favoured few can access the greenback at the official rate, and the secret police believes that the apex bank boss is behind the racket. If bank CEOs are being asked to provide detailed information about the privileged individuals and companies  given foreign exchange allocations since 2017 when Emefiele was first appointed by the then president, Goodluck Jonathan, it is an indication that it has not found his forex allocations funny. It has in fact openly accused him of economic crimes of national security dimension.

Yet, the suspicion cannot be dismissed that the actors in the macabre dance that seems to have set the policy on edge are apparently using the levers of state power to fight proxy wars. When Emefiele unfolded his cashless policy to, among others, curb vote buying, many Nigerians voiced vociferous support, but politicians were not necessarily amused. There was alarm in the ruling power circles even though some members of the political opposition rejoiced. In Nigeria, regardless of the rhetoric at Chatham House, elections are actually bought and sold. Politicians and political parties distribute “mobilisation money” across levels and party chieftains are tasked with the vote buying. Previously, the prepaid method whereby voters were mobilised before elections was used, but these days politicians seem to have found the post-paid method in which voters stylishly display their ballot papers before party agents and then move to a spot some distance away from the polling booth to get paid, more effective. However, with his cashless policy, the apex bank boss apparently sought to curb the cash haul that usually marks campaign seasons. Realising that without (much) money to throw around, a ruling party would be headed for trouble, the opposition PDP and LP gave Emefiele adulations. The thinking seems to be that people would naturally look at a sitting government, particularly a non-performing one, with a frown, which is a plus for the opposition. But the political hawks who felt hard done by Emefiele’s body language immediately moved in and when the heat became too much, the money governor remembered his annual leave. In his absence, but of course with his permission, the financial curfew was relaxed, allowing Nigerians to withdraw as much as N100,000 per day instead of the previous N20,000, but Emefiele had stirred the hornet’s nest. By making cash scarce, Emefiele was making Buhari’s quest for greater electoral probity easier to do. But politicians do not reason like bankers.

The political feeling about Emefiele’s cashless policy has been lucidly articulated by the chair of the presidential anti-graft committee, Itse Sagay. Hear him: “I am even angry that this government allows him to do that because it will make the APC unpopular. This hardship is being created under an APC government and election is just around the corner. I think Emefiele may be a mole from another party trying to create hatred for the APC. I don’t understand why he should bring this policy at this time when we are just few days to the general election.”

It is widely understood that Emefiele has the backing of President Buhari’s inner circle men who are opposed to the outer circle men determined to grab power next month. For all that it is worth, then, Emefiele may be ensconced in the deadly battle for 2023, a battle in which he had stacked up enemies by daring to show interest in the top job. If that is the case, then he has the unenviable position of standing in-between those who have power and those who want to take power. Buhari, who may have noticed ex-President Jonathan’s international goodwill and resolved to conduct better elections than the one that brought him in, is apparently in tune with Emefiele’s cashless policy—Emefiele reportedly breezed into the country under military guard—and so is the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which is standing firmly by his (Emefiele’s) resolve and has no shown plans to arrest him for any alleged crime. On another angle, there is the INEC boss Mahmood Yakubu, who with his list of innovations (BVAS, etc) is apparently keying into the president’s 2023 language.

Buhari typically avoids unnecessary headaches. Nigerians will recall that during an interview with Channels TV in January 2022, President Muhammadu Buhari was asked: “2023 elections, what comes to mind?” The president replied; “It’s not my problem!” In that regard, the president may have decided to allow the pro- and anti-Emefiele camps to wear themselves out while he focuses on surviving the headache of his last few months in office. Buhari is not campaigning for a successor: he has told Nigerians to vote who they will. But his attitude does not seem to have been solely dictated by politics: in nearly eight years on the hot seat, the president is understood to have seen the chicanery of Nigerian politics and politicians, and he is disgusted by it. While Nigeria’s young (wo)men want to escape (japa) to Euro-America, the president wants to escape (the madding crowd) and japa straight to Daura, his second home. He can’t wait to leave office and he has made no secret of his boredom. He will therefore not be drawn into fisticuffs.

This is not necessarily good news for Emefiele. Because the Establishment never puts anyone who it cannot cut to size in position, he may have many sleepless nights ahead of next month’s election that may yet be postponed. Accused of turning ex recharge card and phone accessories merchants to overnight and illegal forex traders and routinely printing money for the Buhari government to spend, Emefiele will have his hands full with mounting a defence.