Ekiti 2022: How the parties may fare on June 18

JUST about three weeks to the eagerly awaited June 18 governorship election in Ekiti State, leading political parties and their candidates are unfolding their strategies and scaling up their campaigns in a bid to get the support of majority of the Ekiti electorate. Voters in the state over the years have proven to be unpredictable and highly sophisticated, a development which has forced the frontline parties to embrace methods that would help in swaying the votes to their advantage.

Unlike the previous governorship elections in the state, this year’s has taken a different twist as it will not be a contest only by the two dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The threat posed by the Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord Party, Action Democratic Party (ADP) and the Young Progressives Party (YPP) cannot be wished away considering the candidates these political parties have put forward for the election.

Even though there has been absence of the usual open rally and campaigns by political parties ahead of a major election, the candidates have been moving around the 177 wards in the state talking to the citizens and selling their manifestos on the need for them to be considered for the top job and succeed Dr Kayode Fayemi on October 16. Political analysts believe this is caused by the fact that the candidates and parties have realised the need to engage more with the electorate at their doorsteps, rather than conveying people to the state capital for open rally, which most times don’t translate to votes.

Saturday Tribune observed that this development which has resulted in little or no elaborate open rally by the leading parties few weeks to the election is a pointer to the changes in the nation’s electoral system. It was learnt that for a party which is desirous of winning in view of the technological innovations by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the election process, it would concentrate its energy and resources on how the people will entrust them with their votes rather than focusing on what they described as “same crowd being used by political parties.”

Not discarding the efforts and advocacy of stakeholders and individuals against it, the syndrome of financial inducement on election day will most likely play a significant role in deciding who wins the June 18 governorship poll considering the increased level of poverty and other economic indices. The usual public activities by contending parties might just be one of the ways of preserving resources for Election Day.

As the political parties set out to meet the June 3, 2022 deadline set by INEC for completion of primaries for the 2023 general election, it has unarguably slowed down activities for the Ekiti governorship election as most gladiators are concerned with who gets what in representing their parties during the general election next year. How the various political parties will handle the situation and placate members who are going to lose out or dissatisfied with the primaries will have effect on the outcome of the election.

APC

The party with its candidate who is the immediate past Secretary to the State Government, Biodun Oyebanji, are banking on the achievements of the incumbent governor, Dr Fayemi and support from government at the centre in winning the election. The 54-year old Oyebanji who recently released his six-point manifesto and agenda for the state, has been receiving endorsement from different groups and associations in the last few weeks and also meeting with key stakeholders on his plans for the state. Few weeks, the APC in its quest to break the succession jinx and retain power, received what could be described as a major boost when the deputy governorship candidate of the ADP, Idowu Afuye joins the ruling party. However, in view of the in-fighting which has culminated in series of protests in the last few days by aspirants and party members who were not comfortable with the processes leading to the nomination of candidates for the 2023 elections, the backlash and fallout of the primaries for House of Assembly, House of Representatives and senatorial seats including the presidential primary convention in the next few days might cause a serious setback for the ruling APC if not resolved quickly by the leadership of the party.

PDP

A former governor of the state, Ayodele Fayose and the PDP candidate, Bisi Kolawole, have been campaigning ahead of the election.

As a major opposition party which had been in government and also put up strong showings during elections in the state, it would be politically unwise to underrate the party going towards the June 18 poll. Fayose, who has control of the party’s structure, has been leading the door-to-door campaigns with other top leaders of the party in the state.

On the 2023 primaries of the party in the state, against expectations of many political watchers in the state, the Ekiti south Senatorial ticket has been resolved and won by the incumbent, Senator Biodun Olujimi, unopposed after the aspirant backed by Fayose, Shola Adekola and the former deputy governor, Professor Kolapo Olusola-Eleka, withdrew from the race. Undoubtedly, this decision of the leadership of the PDP to secure return ticket for Olujimi has boosted the chances of the party especially in the southern district. She has promised to mobilize and work for the victory of the party’s candidate. But, due to what can be linked to protracted and unresolved crisis within the party, one of its leaders and former senator, Duro Faseyi, has reportedly dumped the party to join the SDP.

SDP

The SDP has become visible in the state with the emergence of former Governor Segun Oni as the party’s candidate. He was governor of the state between 2007 and 2010. The reported defection of Senator Duro Faseyi and other top politicians to the party has also made it one of the parties to reckon with in the election. Another thing working for the SDP ahead of the election is the number of popular individuals seeking legislative positions on the party’s platform for the 2023 elections. The aspirants’ success or otherwise in February next year is believed to be largely dependent on the June 18 poll.

But the party is faced with the Herculean task of dislodging the ruling party and the main opposition PDP as a third force, as it claims to be. Another issue which has remained unclear to the people is how the SDP will match the war chest of the APC and the PDP across the 16 local government areas of the state.

ADC

One of the parties which should not be underrated ahead of the June 18 poll is the ADC. The party’s candidate, Dr ‘Wole Oluyede, had been in the APC for years until recently when he left and joined the ADC to contest for the governorship. A member of the South West Agenda for Asiwaju 2023 (SWAGA), Oluyede is enjoying the support of members of the pro-Tinubu group in the state. And being from Ikere-Ekiti, the second local government area with the highest votes, his participation has changed the dynamics of the election. Although the ADC is new in the state, its candidate has been around in the politics of the state for some time. The agitation for a southern governor by the people from Ekiti South senatorial district is another sentiment which might help sway the votes in his favour. Regardless of all these, the chances of the ADC winning the June 18 election appears a tall order but achievable.

ADP

Obviously, the three weeks to the election have been a troubled time for the ADP and its candidate, Mrs Kemi Elebute-Halle, with the defection and resignation of top members of the party. Last weekend, the deputy governorship candidate of the party, Idowu Afuye, dumped the party and joined the APC, while its state chairman, Olakunle Abegunde, announced his resignation as chairman and member of the party. Although he is yet to reveal his next moves, reports have it that Abegunde might end up supporting the APC for the forthcoming election. Elebute-Halle has said she remained undisturbed by happenings within the party but there are signals that the ADP has been dealt a huge blow.