Ekiti 2018: The groundwork, the intrigues

Even with the conclusion of matters surrounding the 2014 governorship election in Ekiti State, won by Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) Mr Ayodele Fayose at the Supreme Court, the election has not in any way been erased from the psyche or removed from the lips of many of its stakeholders. Almost three years after, the 2014 governorship election and Governor Fayose are still the issues in Ekiti politics.

Only last Tuesday, while featuring on a television interview programme, “View from the Top”, Dr Kayode Fayemi, who carried the All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) flag in the election, insisted that he didn’t lose the Ekiti election. He referred to what he said were the revelations after the elections in “the Captain Sagir Koli tapes.” Fayemi, who is the immediate past governor of Ekiti State and the current Minister of Solid Minerals Development, came down from the pedestal of accepting the outcome of the election, in which he lost in all the 16 local government areas of the state, to challenge it at the tribunal and up to the Supreme Court.

Thus, the June 2014 election through which Governor Fayose won a second term of office, remains tainted, going by the contention of the loser, despite all the accolades it (the exercise) got from local and foreign observers and sundry stakeholders. And the election has set a unique template for the looming 2018 contest in the state.

Fayose, who would have served his maximum two terms by the end of his tenure on October 16, 2018, is desirous of repeating what he has gleefully described as 16-0 in his quest to install a successor. He has not hidden his desire to ensure that his party, PDP, retains power in the state next year. This desire he made public soon after the turn of 2016.

The governor heightened his populist programmes in the state and set various kinds of machinery up to sustain his activities at the grass root level and in all the 16 local government areas of the state. Among other things, he has organised artisans and loose groups of traders into recognisable bodies; he has visited many of the larger communities and organised young adults, including those who would be first-time voters in 2018 and he has inaugurated a group known as Osoko Mass Movement in the South Senatorial District of the state.

Osoko Mass Movement, launched formally by Fayose himself in Ikere-Ekiti on February 22, according to his acolytes who are the faces behind the group, “is all about sustaining the Ayo Fayose legacy beyond 2018 and to tell the whole world and in particular, Ekiti people, that wherever Fayose is going in 2018, we are going with him.” The promoters of movement, Wale Ayeni and Akinleye Adedayo Maxima, are both members of the state’s House of Assembly, just as his men elected as chairmen and councillors in the local government areas have their own roles too. And this is one of the numerous ways through which Fayose has been working to make his dream of returning PDP in 2018 become a reality.

One of the observers of the current politicking in the state contended that “Fayose is doing all those things because he knows that he has a lot to contend with in the 2018 governorship race.” And truly, there are myriad of issues as the politicking gathers momentum. To start with, there is a schism in his state’s chapter of PDP. The party in the state is now obviously divided into two factions. Initially, various stakeholders on one side of the divide claimed that there was nothing to the issue in Ekiti PDP until a Federal High Court judgment, delivered by Justice Taiwo Taiwo, on January 24, 2017, gave a base for the current troubles in the party.

One group is led by Gboyega Oguntuwase and that is still the PDP with all the clout in the state. The governor and all the local government chairmen, councillors, House of Assembly members, House of Representatives members and two of the three senators from the state belong there. Thus, in terms of who has the bragging rights in the party, the Oguntuwase-led faction can stand up and claim this.

The other PDP faction is led by Williams Ajayi as chairman. Although Ajayi is barely known and his clout has been queried by not a few observers, he has a lot of backing from some strong anti-Fayose elements in the state chapter of PDP. Among them are Senator Fatimat Raji Rasaki, Chief Clement Awoyelu, who is the leader of the faction and Chief Abiodun Aluko. It is a common musing among observers of the Ekiti PDP issues that «the powers behind the Ajayi faction, which draws its strength from Senator Buruji Kashamu of Ogun State and, by extension, Alhaji Ali Modu Sheriff, is the reason there is still the issue of factions in Ekiti PDP.»

With all the scheming and ambition for the 2018 governorship in Ekiti, there are not too many loud ambitions in the Fayose faction of the PDP yet. However, a former deputy governor of the state, Dr Sikiru Tae-Lawal, the incumbent deputy governor, Dr Kolapo Olubunmi Olusola and Prince Adedayo Adeyeye, are the notable ones among the names that have been mentioned by some people in the state as being interested in 2018 governorship. There have also been whimpers of the names of such people as Chief Bisi Omoyeni. While there are no concrete things yet, the politics is smouldering.

However, in the Williams Ajayi/Senator Awoyelu faction of the party, a former deputy governor of the state, Chief Abiodun Aluko, is a ready name in the race and he has announced that he is prepared to give it a shot. Senator Raji Rasaki’s friends, at a public function last Saturday, publicly announced that she is returning to the Senate and that they were ready to support her to represent Ekiti Central again.

Abiodun Aluko admitted that “no doubt Ekiti PDP is polarised.” However, Chief Aluko harbours the hope that the party would sort itself out before the 2018 race hits up, saying “the Ondo State scenario cannot replay itself in Ekiti State because Ondo’s case came about just about one month to the election, when Jimoh Ibrahim issue came up.”

Aluko, a surveyor of note, who served as deputy governor during the first tenure of Fayose added: «The next election in Ekiti State comes up in 2018 and we still have enough time to be able to resolve whatever differences we would have once a group is declared the legally recognised executive of the party. One group will make overtures to the other. There would be reconciliation and possibly harmonisation to make sure that the party carries the day in the next governorship election. Neither of the two parties wants the party to lose.”

But Jackson Adebayo, the publicity secretary of the Oguntuwase/Fayose faction of the party, is of the view that, right from the top, PDP was being primed for the kind of problems it suffered in Edo and Ondo states. To him, the Ajayi faction is being invigorated because of the coming election “so as to create the Edo and Ondo scenarios to be able to wrest power from PDP in the state.”

Adebayo said they are still in court, having appealed the judgment which declared Ajayi as the rightful chairman. “I am sure there are alternative plans by the leaders of the party should the matter not go as planned in the court. However, our election is still in 2018 and that›s still a long time. Many people who are the players in the current scenario may not be visible again when the time for real politicking for 2018 comes,” he submitted.

For the opposition APC in Ekiti State, the scenario is quite different from what PDP is currently reeling in except in the quest for power shift to Ekiti South Senatorial District. Some observers have asked: «If Fayose is the issue in Ekiti PDP, who is the issued in Ekiti APC? Is Fayemi or Chief Segun Oni the issue in Ekiti APC?” The numerous stakeholders in the party are varied in their opinions on this. Should there be a showdown talk in the party, who would be the rallying point?

The various power blocks in the former ruling party in the state are angling for a grasp of its reins and, to many observers, this has not given what could be described as a proper direction for the party as the days wear on.

So far, there are well over 20 names of people listed as being interested in the 2018 governorship in Ekiti APC. Some of the names are those of a former governor of the state, Oni and Mr Bimbo Daramola, who represented Oye/Ikole Federal constituency in the last House of Representatives and also worked as the director general of the Kayode Fayemi second term campaign.

Fayemi is also said to be interested in re-contesting the governorship but so far, there›s nothing tangible to the news. Today, some of his closest political allies are already working for some other aspirants in these early stages of the race, a pointer to the possibility of his lack of intent to join the fray. However, it was said that ex-Governor Fayemi was in Ekiti recently and was said to have held meetings, the purpose and outcome of which are still in the wraps.

Also, there has been news in the social media that the candidate of the Labour Party in the last election and a former member of the House of Representatives, Michael Opeyemi Bamidele (MOB), has declared interest to contest the election. But news from his camp states otherwise to the extent that he is currently more interested in ensuring reconciliation in the party and bridging the gaps APC groups had created, before coming out with a decision.

Ahmed Salami, MOB›s media aide said, «what was written online is wrong because Bamidele has not declared and when he is ready, he would go to his ward to say ‹I want to contest›. What he is doing now is consultation and that is currently ongoing and when he is through with that, a decision would be taken.”

While the aspirants are burgeoning, the agitation of Ekiti South is also growing in different dimensions. To many observers of the 2018 race, the Ekiti South Agenda is a serious issue and, going by their contention, it would play a vital role in how the election would go. Bamidele, Oni, Daramola and Fayemi are not from the South Senatorial District but they are strong leaders of the party who could sway the contest.

The South Senatorial District, unlike the other two senatorial districts, has never produced a governor of the state and they want it now, more than ever before. The man spearheading the realisation of the South agenda, Chief Oluwole Ariyo, therefore has his work cut out. He said the South had supported the North and the Central, at different times, to win the governorship and that the time was right to receive the same support from the others to ensure fairness and equity.

“It is in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice. We are saying that since the constitution of the party in Article 20, Section 5 on pages 75 and 76 of our party’s constitution, it is out there that the national working committee, upon the approval of national executive council, should consider giving positions to people, issues of geo-political spread, gender equality and rotation. Rotation means a movement from one point to another. So, zoning and rotation are the same thing”, he said.

On what may happen if the agitation by the South is undermined by the agitation of the mentioned aspirants, Ariyo said: “Oni, Bamidele, Daramola and all the others have the rights to aspire. We are not against that in any way. But what we are saying is that the South should be considered and this agitation did not start from now and it is not rested on anything other than history. The South had conceded the slot for the Central and for the North, but Fayose came in and defeated the incumbent and threw spanner in the works.

“It is normal that we should be supported if people have conscience, but we cannot blame anybody for contesting. But what is just is just. After 21 years of the creation of the state, the South should be considered because it gives everybody a sense of belonging. If somebody emerges from APC and it happens not to be the South, there may be voter apathy on the part of the people of the area.”

Perhaps, this agitation has led to the increase in the number of the governorship aspirants from the South. Some really strong names in the APC in Ekiti South are joining in the fray and this is already impacting the tone of the contest. An accomplished foreign-based medical practitioner, Dr Oluwole Oluyede and a former Member of the House of Representatives, Mr Bamidele Faparusi, are already the front-liners in the race in Ekiti South and they have propped their aspiration beyond hushes in APC.

But some APC stakeholders in Ekiti State want the party to complete their reconciliation and look into the party’s executive council in the state.

They contend that “for proper reconciliation, we must dissolve the executive. That’s one of the terms of the reconciliation but this hasn’t been done. This is what former Governor Oni is working to achieve. Already, some party stalwarts are showing interest, like Chief Ranti Akerele Opomulero. When the executive is dissolved, we can now take it up from there and see where the party will arrive at.”

There is also the contention among some of the APC supporters that “to entrench APC’s chances, everyone must come under the party; not that these are the Oni’s group, these are Fayemi’s people or these are Bamidele’s supporters. We all must, first of all, submit to APC, otherwise, we are playing into the hands of PDP.”

The 2018 race in Ekiti State may be early in political terms, but the aspiration of the people is not bound by time.