COVID-19 puts democracy on trial in Africa

A major subject of debate in advanced democracies is the need to deepen democracy on the African continent. Faced with the challenges posed by COVID-19, KUNLE ODEREMI looks at the import for democracy, as a number of countries on the continent have fixed national elections beginning from May 2020.

By initial calculations, no fewer than 16 countries in Africa are slated to conduct a series of general election in 2020. One or two of the countries are to hold rescheduled polls, based on some unforeseen circumstances when the exercise held previously.

By lastFebruary, preparations for the general election in all the countries were in top gear, including the re-run presidential poll slated for June this year in Malawi. But the incursion of COVID-19 into the continent heightened anxiety and uncertainty among the citizens of those countries.

Like many other countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, as well as the United States and China, the African nations are naturally engaged in the collective battle to save humanity from the scourge. Enormous resources are being channeled into fighting the pandemic, ostensibly with the issue of elections apparently relegated to the background or put in abeyance since it also requires massive resources.

Nigerians appeared ‘lucky’ to have been spared the burden, having held a general election at about this time last year. It is only off-season governorship polls that are scheduled to hold in Ondo and Edo states, as well as a few states and federal constituency elections across the country. Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured that arrangements for the governorship poll remain intact, there is public schism because of processes that should culminate in the elections proper.

History

In 2019, elections were held in South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Namibia and Botswana.  From the reports of some research works, of the 92 presidential elections conducted in the countries in Africa between 1990 and 2004, only 13 featured an electoral turnover. Between 1990 and 2005, only nine out of 18 presidents agreed to step down after their final term, while the other nine all chose to use constitutionally-mandated processes to try to extend their terms. Of the nine, three were unsuccessful in the bid to secure their objective, including Nigeria.

Challenges

Some of the trending issues even before the COVID-19 burrowed into the continent included the parlous state of the economy, ethnic politics, corruption, intrigues over power of incumbency, assaults on the opposition and harassment of the media. Matters like empowerment of the citizenry to kill the bug of poverty, ignorance, under-development and import dependence are obfuscated by mundane stuffs that tend to divide the people. The mantra of Coronavirus has slowed down the pace of governance and reduced the resort to the usual tantrum and opprobrium that characterise politics. As other countries in the continent have fixed their general election for 2020, a few will only conduct legislative elections and the list of such countries include Comoros, Egypt, Mali, Chad and Cameroon.

Ghana

Ghanaians are expected to hold a general election next December, with the possibility of President Nana Akufo-Addo, former President John Mahama of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), as the main contenders. It is recalled that Mahama succeeded President John Atta Mills following his demise on July 24, 2012. But Mahama lost to Akufo-Addo in the general election held in December 2012, as well as the presidential poll conducted in 2016.

Tanzania

Tanzania is another country that is supposed to hold elections in October in 2020. A country with a history of peaceful, successful transition and succession, it is currently governed by President John Pombe Magufuli. His political party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), is regarded as the second-longest ruling party in Africa, with the National Party, also known as Nationalist Party, in South Africa rated the first.  The opposition presidential candidate, Edward Lowassa of the Chama cha Demokrasiana Maendeleo (Chadema)), left the CCM party after it chose Magufuli as its standard-bearer in the 2015 presidential poll. But he only polled 40 per cent of the vote in the election. President Magufuli was elected in 2015 on the mantra of anti-fighting corruption, but his administration is current marred by allegations of muzzling the opposition voices and the press.

Sudan

There is uncertainty in the political space of Sudan, a year after the former leader, Omar al-Bashir, who was in power for 30 years, stepped aside. Before then, he had given the impression that his administration was ready to conduct elections. The transitional government is still keeping people guessing on when the elections will hold in the war-torn country as the leadership said it will rule for a couple of years before holding a presidential election.

Burundi

Before the COVID-19 spread with rage, the authorities in Burundi have made it mandatory for civil servants and other citizens to contribute fund that is required for the general election slated for the year. A percentage of the salaries of government workers are retained since January 2018 to offset expenses for the election, scheduled for May 2020. The spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, Christian Kwizera, was quoted as saying that the equivalent of approximately $33m is available for the election process, as the previous election process cost more than $60m. But there are fears that the bill could go higher in the event of a run-off (or second round of voting). The main opposition alliance in exile, the National Council for Compliance with the Arusha Agreement (CNARED), has indicated its readiness to field candidates for the 2020 elections and not boycott, as it did in 2015.

Côte d’Ivoire

Speculations are rife that current President Alassane Ouattara, major rival Henri Konan Bédié and former President Laurent Gbagbo, all of them septuagenarians, could return to the starting blocks. Gbagbo has been left of the hook over crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

Burundi

In the elections scheduled for May in Burundi, the ambition of incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza, is shrouded in secrecy. His bid was believed to have accounted for the costly crisis that rocked the country in 2015. Besides, many Burundians are worried over the cost implications of the planned general election this year, with many development partners said to have withdrawn financial support for the country.  A September 2019 report by the United Nations (UN) stated that an unresolved political crisis and a president who is increasingly portrayed as a “divine” ruler point to a problematic election in 2020. But Burundi’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ezechiel Nibigira, not too long ago declared at the UN General Assembly that there existed an increasingly favourable climate for free, transparent and calm elections in his country.

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Somalia

The elections proposed for the year in Somalia will be the epochal as it will be first time in 50 years since the country would conduct a one-person one-vote national election or universal suffrage.  Only 14, 000 clan delegates determined the presidential elections held in the country in 2009, 2012 and 2017. Both the government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and the opposition have joined issues over alleged plot by the incumbent to elongate his tenure. There is also the controversy over a constitutional review, which sets to tackle the status of Mogadishu, the capital city of Somalia, distribution of powers and revenues between the central government and the federating states.

Ethiopia

The upcoming May 2020 elections in Ethiopia will be the first under The 2019 Nobel Laureate and reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has fixed elections for May in the country. He has dissolved all the parties within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition and formed Prosperity Party (PP). The action has led to the emergence of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organisation (OPDO). Ahmed is the leader of the latter. It is on record that the country held regular polls since 1995 except in 2005 election.

The polity has been heating up since Prime Minister Ahmed initiated some political reforms. The tentative date for the general election is August 16, 2020, according to the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). But the opposition said it was not proper to hold elections during the rainy season across the country.

Malawi

Since last year, Malawi has been embroiled in a major crisis over the outcome of a presidential poll. The Malawian Constitutional Court voided the result of the disputed poll held on May 21, 2019, due to widespread irregularities.  Already, the election is fixed for July 2020 as incumbent President Peter Mutharika seeks re-election.

Deepening democracy

The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) once outlined the template for credible political process. It observed that proper management of diversity and fair representation were sine quo non in successful holding of elections and the deepening of democracy. In the third edition of the African Governance Report launched in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, it recommended that African countries embark on electoral, constitutional and political reforms; make electoral management boards more independent and competent while improving the diversity within them; and allowing for fair funding of electoral campaigns.

Similarly, the Maendeleo Policy Forum, convened by UNDP Regional Service for Africa, after examining the challenges faced by various countries in organising democratic and peaceful elections, noted that “free, fair and peaceful elections are possible where mandated institutions are able to ensure integrity of the electoral process. According to the body, “Efficient and strong African mechanisms are needed to underpin credible elections and transform elections into an asset. Electoral integrity is necessary to turn elections into instruments for promoting social cohesion and inclusion, creating political legitimacy and effective management of diversity.”

Advising that elections should not be period of divisions, pain, suffering and anger, the Forum lamented that elections are often perilous times because of human-induced violence and disruption. It submitted that the dire consequence was that, “electoral violence slows economic growth, undermines durable peace and stability, and the consolidation of a democratic culture.”

The Electoral Integrity Initiative, the pet project of the Kofi Anan Foundation, also counseled African leaders on the importance of credible polls in the quest to deepen democracy. It observed that since 2000, all but 11 African countries had held national elections.

It emphasised that high standards before, during and after votes are cast are vital for elections to be credible, just as opposition parties should be free to organise and campaign without fear. The Foundation stated that there must be a level-playing field among candidates, while on the polling day, voters should feel safe and trust the secrecy and integrity of the ballot, and the result of the election should be accepted no matter how disappointed the defeated candidates. The foundation added: “When the electorate believes that elections have been free and fair, they can be a powerful catalyst for better governance, greater security and human development.”

NIGERIAN TRIBUNE