Climate change aids insurgency, terrorism crime — Study

As the climate changes, so too do the conditions in which non-state armed groups operate, a new study has revealed.

Terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and Boko Haram have been dominating the headlines since 2013. Both groups have gained international notoriety for their ruthless brutality and their rise is posing new challenges for national, regional and international security.

In a new report titled ‘Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate. Analysing the Links Between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups,’ the Climate Diplomacy Organisation, focused on four case studies on Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region, ISIS in Syria, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and urban violence and organised crime in Guatemala, while exploring in depth the specific role non-state armed groups (NSAG) play in the complex dynamics of climate change and fragility.

“As the climate is changing, so too are the conditions within which non-state armed groups such as Boko Haram and ISIS operate. Climate change contributes to creating a fragile environment in which these groups can thrive,” the report said.

According to the organisation, the case studies show that as the climate is changing, so too are the conditions within which NSAGs operate. “The complex risks arising from climate change, fragility and conflict can contribute to the emergence and growth of non-state armed groups. This does not imply that there is a direct link between climate change and NSAG-related violence and conflict.

“However, large-scale environmental and climatic change contributes to creating an environment in which non-state armed groups can thrive and opens spaces that facilitate the pursuit of their strategies.

“For example around Lake Chad, climate change contributes to resource scarcities that increase local competition for land and water. This competition in turn often fuels social tensions and even violent conflict. At the same time, this resource scarcity erodes the livelihoods of many people, aggravates poverty and unemployment, and leads to population displacement,” it stated.

It added further that non-state armed groups, in particular Boko Haram, thrive in this fragile environment. In this context of contested authority and legitimacy, Boko Haram can operate more easily and engage not only in acts of violence but also in transnational organised crime. At the same time, as climate change degrades yields from agriculture, cattle rearing and fisheries, many people are left unemployed, with few economic opportunities and low levels of education.

This makes them extremely vulnerable not only to negative climate impacts but also to recruitment from terrorist groups such as Boko Haram.

“We concluded that climate change is interacting with non-state armed groups in three major ways: first, it is increasingly contributing to fragility, mainly by exacerbating conflicts surrounding natural resources and livelihood insecurity. NSAGs proliferate and can operate more easily in these fragile and conflict-affected environments.

“It is also having increasingly negative impacts on livelihoods in many countries and regions, e.g. through food insecurity. And finally NSAGs are increasingly using natural resources as a weapon of war. The case studies show that in resource-scarce and fragile environments, NSAGs can use natural resources such as water as a weapon of war. This in turn further compounds and exacerbates resource scarcities.”