Census as panacea for conflict resolution, prevention

MUCH has been saying and written about census on one hand and conflict resolution and prevention on the other hand by many scholars, experts, and politicians etc. Some people even surprised us by arguing that Nigeria should not have a census now because of insecurity. Little did the people know that census is even a crucial panacea to put an end to insecurity not only in Nigeria but in most of the developing nations that are ravaged with war; counter wars and different forms of conflicts and insecurity. The whole essence of this article is to enlighten us on how conflict resolution and prevention can  emerge with use of census figures, particularly nigeria with use of about to be conducted 2022 census results.  I have published some write-ups on census in the past to expound expatiate the crucial importance of census to solicit for the unflinching support of every individual and group of individuals for census in Nigeria. Among these articles are the following publications in Nigerian Tribune : {1.} “Census and Economic Development” (30th May, 2002). {2.} “Census and Globalization” (7th November, 2003). {3.} “Census as a Public Service” (11th August, 2004). {4.} “Census as the Crux of Sustainable Development Goals” (23rd October,2017).

This very article is also in the same vein with the previous articles on census, to enlighten the stakeholders the security agents and the general public on the crucial importance of census in putting an end to various forms of Conflicts that are confronting Nigeria now. The United Nations defines population census as “the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country” and a housing census as “the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating statistical data pertaining, at a specified time, to all living quarters and occupants thereof in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country.” See United Nations (2008), paragraphs 1.4 and 1.6. Population census gives a complete and comprehensive picture of the size, composition and distribution of the population, which is a basis for evidence-based development planning, decision making and good governance. It also provides basic data for demographic, social, and economic analysis of the population, including population estimates and projections.

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Census provides detailed statistics for small areas  and small population groups for efficient governance at all levels. It provides the  basic  data  required for allocating government funds among various regions and districts for education, health and other services, and delineating electoral districts at the national and regional, district, and lowest administrative regions in both urban and rural area levels.  Similarly,  housing census provides characteristics of the living quarters of the population. When population and housing censuses are carried out together, they provide a higher value since data on housing conditions could be analysed in association with the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the occupants and vice versa. Another important use of the population and housing census is that it provides a sampling frame for household surveys in the intercensal period. Census statistics  are used as benchmarks for statistical compilation and for research and analysis. Population censuses are the principal sources of records for use as sampling frame for surveys during the inter-censal period. Population projection is one of the most important analytical outputs based on census data. Such projections can be done at national and sub-national levels.

On the other hand, conflict is a situation that occurs in every society and relationship, and it refers to confrontation between individuals or group resulting from opposite or incompatible ends or means. Also, as described by International Alert, conflict  is one of the energies of life that seem common, natural and unavoidable. Social-economic differences are some of the factors that make conflict inevitable. Mostly, the social –economic differences emerge as a result inadequate plan or total absence of evidence-based plan, because of failure to integrate Population Census figure into annual budget or any infrastructural facilities like health, education, roads, electricity, water etc . Hence, conflict resolution, according to Lund (1997), is an effort to increase cooperation among the parties to the a conflict and deepen their relationship by addressing the conditions that led to the dispute, fostering positive attitudes and allying distrust through reconciliation initiatives and building or strengthening the institutions and process through which the parties interact. Again, Maluwa (1989) defines conflict resolution as changing reality either by reducing scarcity of a disputed value or resource, or by changing the casual factors that have made for antagonism and confrontation in the past. It can also consist of changing the demands of the actors so that a distribution of values is found that is subjectively acceptable to both of the actors and therefore agreed to.

In the same vein, conflict prevention is any action, policy, procedure or institution undertaken in a particular vulnerable place and time in order to avoid the threat or use of armed force and related forms of coercion by state or group, as the way to settle disputes that can arise from destabilizing effects of economic, social, political and national and international change. Conflict prevention can also include action taken after violent conflict to avoid it recurrence. Now that another census exercise is looming in Nigeria, and there are numerous conflicts confronting it, it is pertinent and important to further strengthen and reinforce the importance of census as related to conflict resolution and conflict prevention. Many internal conflicts are presently disturbing Nigeria and many countries of the world, particularly in Africa. While, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Colombia are undergoing civil war, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo, etc, are all facing different forms terrorism. In Nigeria, apart from terrorism, kidnapping and insurgency, there are many communal conflicts and boundary conflicts in different parts. But do we delay the census exercise because of these conflicts? The answer is NO.

• Komolafe, a deputy director at the NPC, is a former census specialist with UNFPA and planning specialist with the UNDP.