Afrinvest presents 2019 economic outlook

Published by

6 years ago

From left, Ayodeji Ebo, Managing Director, Afrinvest Securities Limited; Ike Chioke, Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited; Victor Ndukauba: Deputy Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited; Robert Omotunde, Head, Afrinvest Research and Jolomi Odonghanro, Associate, Afrinvest Research Afrinvest Research at the launch of Afrinvest’s 2019 Nigeria Economic and Financial Outlook, in Lagos, recently.

AFRINVEST (West Africa) Limited released its 2019 Outlook for the Nigerian Economic and Financial Markets in a report titled, ‘On the Precipice’. The report offers insights into the social, economic and political risks and potentials that will affect the growth of the economy in 2019 and beyond.

Billionaire Jimoh Ibrahim’s mother burnt to death in Lagos home

According to the firm, 2018 was a year of slow, anaemic growth in the Nigerian economy. While 2017 heralded a resurgence of the Nigerian economy, some of the widespread challenges that induced the recession in 2016 persist, threatening to be exposed by any substantial economic pressure. This report, therefore, outlines critical factors that will determine whether we move to a more accelerated phase of growth or are plunged into a cycle of contraction.

According to the Group Managing Director of Afrinvest, Ike Chioke, “We see the 2019 general elections as an opportunity to press the reset button and set the country on a path of sustainable growth and prosperity. 2018 may have delivered some positives but growth remains far below long-term levels of 6 – 7 per cent. Furthermore, unemployment and underemployment numbers have gone up, Nigeria has been named the poverty capital of the world and there are elevated security threats across regions.

“Our outlook for 2019 is, therefore, largely dependent on the outcome of the general elections. At present, the race appears to be keenly contested by the incumbent party – APC – and the major opposition party – PDP. Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: the winner must hit the ground running with the energy and political will to implement market-driven reforms that will boost economic growth and development.”

Our report, therefore, provides scenario-based projections for the economy. We have outlined a base case where the incumbent returns and there is policy continuity; a pessimistic case where political tensions escalate leading to widespread insecurity; and an optimistic case where regardless of the winner, we see exciting policy reforms that can deliver real growth.