•Highlights insights for stabilizing Nigeria’s agricultural sector
Africa’s leading commodities player, AFEX, has predicted price stabilization for staple grain commodities like maize, soybean, paddy rice, and sorghum, amidst record food inflation in Nigeria.
This was revealed at the launch of the 2025 Annual Commodities Review and Outlook report, and Index methodology unveiling, held recently.
The report, which tracks the price and production performance of global and regional markets, alongside projections for the year ahead, provides valuable insights into the agricultural value chain.
In Nigeria, with record-high inflation, which reached 34.8 percent in December 2024, and a volatile exchange rate, coupled with challenges in the agricultural sector such as climate change, rising input costs, and low productivity.
In 2024, we witnessed commodity prices rise by four percent, compared to 2023, which saw a seven percent decline in prices. Where the price decline in 2023 was a direct consequence of a nine percent drop in food prices, and a five percent decline in raw materials, prices in 2024 actually witnessed an eight percent decline in food prices driven by an 11 percent drop in oils and meals prices and a significant 16 percent decrease in grain prices.
However, a sharp 64 percent increase in beverage prices and a five percent rise in raw material costs eventually tilted prices higher.
Global production for Maize, a staple grain commodity, reached a record-breaking 1.13 billion metric tons in 2024, reflecting a six percent year-on-year increase. This output put a downward pressure on maize prices, which fell by 25 percent year-on-year. In contrast, Maize prices in Nigeria rose by 92 percent year-on-year and closed the year at approximately NGN660,000 per metric ton, with its highest
peak in July where prices hit NGN908,000 per metric ton. The report projects that local prices are expected to moderate on the back of the government’s implementation of a 150-day import duty on maize, which will up supply and eventually ease pressure on prices.
Paddy Rice, a staple consumption commodity, witnessed price growth of six percent owing to India’s export restrictions, seasonal supply tightness, and the adverse impacts of El Niño on global rice production. However, price eased towards the end of the year as India lifted its ban on rice exportation. The report projects that domestic Paddy rice prices are expected to rise by approximately 50 percent year-on-year in 2025, despite the imposition of the 150-day import waiver.
Speaking at the event, Akinyinka Akintunde, President/CEO AFEX Nigeria, said “As we confront record food inflation and macroeconomic pressures, this report provides critical insights to stabilize Nigeria’s agricultural value chain. By identifying pathways to mitigate climate risks, optimize input costs, and enhance productivity, it lays a foundation for resolving food insecurity and fostering sustainable growth in the sector”
The event also featured the unveiling of the AFEX Commodities Index and the AFEX Export Index methodology, key indices that provide investors and market stakeholders with real-time prices of commodities and the export market.
Speaking on the updates, Oluwafunto Olasemo, Chief Operating Offer, AFEX Commodities Exchange, mentioned “These updates represent our unwavering commitment to driving much needed technology innovation that contributes to efficient value chains, while increasing transparency, and growth in Nigeria’s commodities ecosystem. With these tools, we are empowering stakeholders to make better informed decisions which ultimately unlocks new opportunities for commodities trading and investment”
As Nigerians continue to battle with increases in food prices, it is important for stakeholders within
the agriculture sector to prioritize concerted efforts aimed at driving innovation within the value chain. The FAO predicts that an additional 33.1 million people will face food insecurity in 2025, and thus the imperative for solving production, processing and supply chain inefficiencies becomes clearer. The report is a single step in the direction of resolution, however, policy coordination as well as private sector engagement, especially within the capital market as a catalyst for driving investment in agriculture, is needed.
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