2023 presidency: PDP under pressure

WITH a few weeks to its presidential convention, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is faced with adopting a seamless process that will produce a candidate for 2023 presidential election from an array of contestants from the North and the South, KUNLE ODEREMI reports

ALL key stakeholders in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are laterally on the edge. The leaders are apparently at a crossroads, with rising tension and suspense over the road to travel in the choice of standard-bearer of the party in the 2023 presidential election. Having been unable to categorically zone the ticket to either the South or the North, the party has thrown itself into a quagmire that is almost akin to a time bomb.   Yet, the countdown to May 28 and 29, when the PDP is expected to decide on who picks the ticket, is progressing steadily in the minds of party members across the length and breadth of the country. Which way to go? That is the big question on the lips of concerned party buffs and supporters.

Options before PDP

Parties with intent to field candidates for the general election beginning with the presidential poll on February 25, 2023 are required to submit a list of their standard-bearers to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) latest on Jun 3, 2022. To get the list ready, three options are open to the parties. One is the conduct of direct primary; the second choice is to hold an indirect primary, while the third avenue is to adopt a consensus arrangement.  But the parties currently have few hurdles in the march towards that stage of conducting primaries. For the PDP, it is increasingly becoming a tough battle to have a seamless process that will throw up its presidential hopeful. The choice of its candidate has become an acid test of its ability to manage crisis and resolve the attendant conflict of interest. And a few of its leaders have been at their wit’s end on how the PDP could wriggle out of the current conundrum over who gets its presidential ticket; a candidate that will enjoy undisguised and maximum support of other contenders for the ticket to guarantee victory on February 25, 2023.

Consensus building

An almost seamless process produced Dr Iyorchia Ayu as national chairman of the PDP about six months ago. The exercise created the ambience of a promise that the party would build on the precedent in the choice of its presidential candidate. Some of its chieftains soon resolved to up the ante. The trio of a former president of the Senate, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki; governors of Sokoto and Bauchi states, Honourable Aminu Tambuwal and Senator Bala Mohammed, respectively, came up with idea of cooperation towards evolving a consensus candidate among the eminent persons that have elected to seek the presidential ticket of the PDP.  The maiden meeting of the team was held in Bauchi on March 20, 2022. The members unveiled their collective mission: to co-operate and collaborate such that only one of them will be put forward to vie for the ticket, instead of having all the contenders squaring up for the same post. And with time, another aspirant became part of the forces behind the initiative. A former Managing Director of the African International Bank, Mohammed Hayatoudeen joined the fray, with the idea becoming central in discourse in the public space. Many expressed enthusiasm about the initiative, as well as confidence that PDP would consolidate on the gains of the process that threw up Ayu.  Party members praised the initiators for deciding on their own volition to tactically prune the number of aspirants, as it put their aspirations at stake. For instance, a party member from Kano, Hashim Karem, described the efforts of the consensus aspirants as a big sacrifice and a demonstration that the men are patriots, statesmen, and peacemakers. The aspirants know that by initiating this consensus move, three of them will lose out as only one person will be nominated to contest in the primary. Yet, they went on to make public pronouncements on their efforts, thereby foreclosing the option for any of them to back out. These men have done well and they should be treated as heroes of the PDP and today’s democracy in Nigeria,” Kareem said.

Mr Okey Eleenwo is a party member from Abia State. He said he had an initial reservation about the concept of consensus in the ongoing efforts at resolving issues on the PDP ticket. According to him, his assumption was that the promoters had a hidden motive: to railroad the process. His words: “Initially, I did not believe the four men were serious about their plan. To think that they mean business gives me the impression that they are making a big sacrifice, particularly since the initiative is a voluntary move and nobody is being compelled to join. Also, the idea was not imposed by the party nor is it being directed by any incumbent president or other external or internal force.”

Similarly, a stalwart of PDP in Lagos State, Mr Adekunle Oluwole said the idea of consensus was imperative, given the trails of the party after losing power in 2015. He said the party could not afford to falter at the crucial stage of picking the right candidate for next year’s election. In his opinion, the novel idea may become the trend that will determine the shape of the 2023 elections. He stressed: “This consensus arrangement will reduce tension in the PDP. It will make the presidential primaries better managed. The fall-out will also be easy to handle. If the aspirants are already holding discussions with each other, then they are already creating grounds for mutual understanding and support for each other. So, whoever emerges will find it easy to rally the others and everybody will be a winner.”

Another leader of the PDP from Bayelsa State, Mr Peremebao Ohiwe hoped that such a process would reduce the number of aspirants, create a good relationship among them and prepare the grounds for a united team that PDP needs to effectively challenge and defeat the ruling party. He said: “It is believed that without the consensus arrangement, a situation where there are 15 aspirants within PDP will only lead to division and make it easy for the ruling party to make a mincemeat of it at the polls. It will be recalled that in 2015 when the APC was the leading opposition party, it managed to reduce the number of its aspirants to just five. They were: Muhammadu Buhari, the eventual winner, Abubakar Atiku, Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, Rochas Okorocha, and the late Sam Nda Isaiah. Quite a number of other aspirants who were touted to vie simply chose to support Buhari to help their party defeat the then ruling PDP.”

Intra-party feud

The PDP still has its share of intra-party feud within political parties. There are protracted crises in state chapters, including Ekiti, Edo, Lagos, and Kano, just to mention a few. The wrangling is most pronounced in the party, due to the struggle for power and positions in the ongoing preparations for the general election. Various efforts in the past to cement the cracks yielded little or no fruits, as the different camps insist on their terms for any form of reconciliation. It was against this background that a top notch of the PDP, who craved anonymity said: “It is believed that the current move by the consensus architects in the PDP is also a smart move to ensure a cohesive, united, and strong party that can easily defeat the APC which has suffered image setbacks based on its performance in the area of security, economy and the fight against corruption. The PDP consensus quartet has rigorously continued to take their message for unity and sacrifice to all key stakeholders in the party. They have visited all the other 11 governors who are members of the PDP to explain their mission to them. To ensure that their initiative is not seen as a gang-up against any other aspirant, they have equally visited Atiku who is not part of the current movement and is a presidential aspirant. They have visited aspirants from the other zones like Nyesom Wike and Emmanuel Udom who are also governors.”

Meanwhile, some allies of Buhari in the ruling APC are underling the possibility of the president adopting the style that culminated into producing Senator Abdullahi Adamu as APC national chairman at the recent convention held in Abuja. Thee permutation is that he might tactically give his blessing to one of the presidential aspirants after due consultations with other influential power blocs in the APC.

A source disclosed that the consensus team may next week hold a joint meeting with all other aspirants from other parts of the country who are not opposed to the consensus idea so that they can all agree on modalities for further reducing the number of aspirants in the interest of the party.

Saraki, who is the spokesman of the consensus advocates, has repeatedly explained that the four of them in the group are qualified to provide effective leadership and good governance for the nation. He said they believe that “the national interest and cohesion within the party are more important than individual ambition”. He added that what he and his colleagues have started is worthy of emulation as consensus building is needed at a critical time when the nation is troubled like now.

A political scientist, Mallam Hassan Lado corroborated the promotion of stability, pace and cohesion within the PDP as part of thee inherent benefits in the idea of consensus. ”The efforts of the group of politicians are novel, noble, and worthy of emulation”, he noted. “They should be encouraged to pull it through. The consensus plan should not be abandoned mid-way. The PDP leadership should openly come out to identify with the idea, praise it and encourage all members and stakeholders to back support it. We should encourage the subscribers to the idea to ensure it has a successful outcome.”

A legal practitioner, Okey Nwaeke, faulted critics who claimed the concept of consensus is legal within the framework of the ongoing political process. He specifically declared that consensus is an idea supported by law, stressing that the new Electoral Act recognises it as one of the ways by which parties can select candidates. He added that credit should be given to politicians who are exploring this legal and lawful option as it demonstrates their predilection for peace, unity, and cooperation. Nwaeke urged the advocates of consensus to sustain the tempo of persuasion to push the idea because, “for as long as it is voluntary, not being forced on anybody and the initiators continue to be firm on the fundamental reasons for starting it, history as well as posterity will remember them for good cause.”

In the main, how the main opposition party handles the process of getting its candidate for the presidential poll will be instructive, especially having gone to the valley of death and returned almost unscathed. The form of compromise to be made by the vested interests in the party across the zones and caucuses could define the success, progress and prospects of the PDP in 2023 and beyond.