Politics

2023 presidency: APC, PDP walk on tight rope

As the presidential primaries of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) approach, KUNLE ODEREMI, in this write-up, points out ongoing internal schemings and why the two parties appear to be at a crossroad on modalities to pick their presidential candidates.

The sale of nomination and expression of interest forms for the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) closed on Tuesday, coinciding with frenzied moves in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of a crucial meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) scheduled for Wednesday in Abuja to resolve the contention of zoning of its ticket. Both the APC and PDP are walking on a tight rope over the path to follow in who becomes their standard-bearers in the February 25, 2023 election. It is recalled that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), last week, warned all the political parties that the timetable and programme of activities it unveiled not-too-long ago remained sacrosanct. However, a welter of issues and challenges, among them, regional interest, ego, large number of aspirants, question about power shift is placing a huge burden on the shoulders of the leadership of the ruling APC and the opposition PDP. These factors have thrown up and escalated different forms of agitation and demand by vested interests across six political zones.

In PDP, the leaders are at a crossroads on if the party should adhere to the letters of its constitution on power shift. By the principle of zoning enshrined in the document in Chapter 1, article 7(3)(c), the ticket of the party should rotate to the southern axis of the country. But some of its buffs assert that the PDP in caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea, hence the crucial NEC meeting slated for today in Abuja to consider the recommendation of the Governor Samuel Ortom-led Committee on zoning. Having been unable to reach a compromise on either to stay by the spirit of PDP Constitution or keep it abeyance, whatever the leaders decide at the NEC meeting has many implications for the party at the presidential primary coming up at the end of the month and the general election at large. The agitation by various groups and blocs that the party upholds the principle lends credence to such arguments by stakeholders in PDP.

The APC is equally in dilemma over power shift, though the principle is not contained in its constitution. The issue has triggered a serious crisis of confidence among the major power blocs in the party. Indiscretion, on the part of the new national leadership of the party on power shift, has led to deep-seethed anger and thrown up a whiff of threats and counter-threats by different tendencies within the APC, especially in some zones. The frustration has been manifest in the warning by some pressure groups and eminent persons from the southern part of the country that no aspirant for the presidency should compromise on power shift as the South is not ready to play the second fiddle in the next political dispensation.

At a crossroads

The PDP has screened 15 aspirants, while the number of persons that has indicated interest in APC stands at 27 as of Monday. But, with three weeks to the conduct of primaries by the parties, the most of their zonal power blocs are faced with evolving appropriate strategy and formula to be deployed following the scramble for the presidency. Key members of the northern establishment are said to prefer a paradigm shift in power from the old generation of northern politicians to the younger ones in consonance to the trend in the Western world. The thinking is that such younger elements would be able to relate well globally and be on top of contemporary issues. Former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida once advocated that Nigeria’s next president should be under 60 years. Similarly, former President Olusegun Obasanjo canvassed that the next president should be well-grounded in the intricacies of economy and business.

North

It is, however, not clear if the issue of age bracket was among the factors that informed the recent effort by a chieftain of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Professor Ango Abullahi on the choice of a former president of the Senate, Dr Bukola Saraki and incumbent governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed as consensus candidates of the North in the prelude to the party primaries this month.

The issue of age, coupled with performance is also said to be among the strong points being canvassed by those putting pressure of the governor of Borno State, Professor Zulum to run for the presidency. Though Borno elders prefer he seeks a second term in office as governors, the groups that want him to contest for presidency are unrelenting in their call.

Elsewhere, the lack of consensus on the advocacy is the argument of politicians from the North-Central that Northern Establishment should, as a priority, allow the zone to represent the North on the ballot in 2023. They agreed with other northern leaders, who believe that the North-West should have no business indicating interest in the presidential ticket of either the PDP or the APC since President Buhari is from the zone. Their standpoint is that other zones in the North should be allowed to bid for the position in the interest of equity and fairness.

South-South

Consensus building in the South-South in the quest by the zone to lead the country, in the next dispensation, seems not to be on the card of aspirants from the zone as they are almost working at cross purposes. The predicament of the zone is being aggravated by protracted intra-party crises and individual egos in the PDP and APC. Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State; Governor Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom) are seeking the ticket of PDP, while Minister of Transportation, Honourable Rotimi Amaechi; former national chairman of APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River want to fly the flag of the party.

South-East

Uncertainty also pervades the ranks of the main parties in the South-East, with each party parading prominent politicians wanting to lead the country from next year. Whereas leaders of pan-Igbo groups have ruled out the possibility of the zone playing the second fiddle in the next dispensation, there is no clear-cut harmonized agenda among the aspirants for the presidency, making the area politically vulnerable like the South-West, which is considered the major base of the APC in the South.

South-West

The prevalent situation in the South-West is akin to the two sides of a coin. While PDP in the zone has none of its members running for the presidency, the party is split by a conflict of interest in state chapters, including Ekiti and Osun states, where governorship elections will hold in June and July this year, respectively. Another core challenge confronting the PDP in the South-West is the few number of delegates that will represent the zone at the presidential primary of PDP. Save for Oyo State, the other five states have only small number of delegates since the PDP is not in government. Therefore, the impact of the South-West zone at the primary will be determined by delegates from Oyo.

In South-West APC, the search for consensus among the seven aspirants for the ticket of the party, which culminated in the intervention of some party leaders is still work in progress. The sharp division among the stakeholders is underlined by raging claims and counter-claims of betrayal, distrust and suspicion. The factor is bound to rub on the influence that APC in the South-west might assert at the presidential primary of the party. With three presidential hopefuls from Ogun State alone, it is unlikely that the delegates will choose to face one direction. While majority of the delegates from Ekiti and Lagos states might deliver much of their votes to their principals contesting for APC ticket, those from Osun, Oyo and Ondo states may act differently.

Emefiele

The bid by the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele for president is perceived as the hands of Esau and the voice of Jacob. This is aside from what they describe as the inherent moral and legal undercurrents. Coupled with this is the belief that some powerful forces determined to checkmate other contestants from the South and preserve the status quo, are behind the project. It is said to be in the manner members of a cabal in the corridors of power are said to the brains behind the preponderance of aspirants seeking the presidential ticket of the party. Emefiele confirmed his aspiration on Monday when he approached an Abuja High court for a restraining order that would enable him to remain in office until 30 days to the 2023 elections.

Opposition

The refrain among the key chieftains of both the APC and the PDP over the battle for their presidential ticket has been when they get to the river, they will decide how to cross it. They are almost by the river bank now. They are under pressure from concerned individuals and organisations with equal stake in the country on the balance of power and inclusivity. Their concern is also hinged on legitimacy, an issue that has become the focal point of arguments by pro-democracy and rights activists on the bid by Emefiele. Their argument is based on extant laws of the land and statues guiding the status of the CBN. Three Senior Advocates of Nigeria: Mr Femi Falana, Olu Adegboruwa and Dr Kayode Ajulo are insisting that he vacates his position if he wants to run for president.

The other theory on the flood of aspirants for APC ticket concerns the entry of the governor of Jigawa State, Mohammed Badaru and the president of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan into the presidential race. The initial hypothesis that some governors elected on APC platform were lobbying to become running mate pales into insignificance with Lawan, especially seeking the ticket of APC. He is said to be a possible choice of a cabal opposed to the campaign.

In the opinion of a former president of the Senate and presidential aspirant of the PDP, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim: “We are not just in an election season, we are about to recruit a leader, the person who will lead Nigeria out of these problems to growth, security and prosperity.” The challenge before us now is to get a leadership who knows the problems and how to solve fix the problems.”

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