2019: The tricky political calculation in the North

As things stand, the major political parties are all rooting for the emergence of their 2019 presidential candidates from the North. But there are also some troubling questions: which North? Will the North-Central benefit from the calculation? Group Politics Editor, Taiwo Adisa, attempts some answers.

The race for the 2019 presidential election is now on in full force and the aspirants in the dominant and the not so dominant political parties are already making their moves. In a matter of weeks, the candidates would start emerging.

But apart from the fact that most of the parties are looking towards picking candidates from the North, nothing is sure for the would-be candidates except for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), where President Muhammadu Buhari is certain of picking the presidential ticket.

One distinct feature of the 2019 elections so far is the tilt towards the North by a majority of the political parties. Even the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which has its roots in the South-East is said to be fishing for a presidential candidate from the North. Another general feature of the 2019 calculation is the push by many of the parties to pick candidates from the North-West.

The calculation by key stakeholders in the majority parties is to the effect that with President Buhari already emerging the clear candidate of the APC, other parties have to go the way of the North, especially with his acclaimed cult following in the region. The North-West has the highest voter population of all the six geopolitical zones. It has seven states, whereas other zones have six states each with the exception of the South-East that has five states.  Thus, the thinking in many of the parties is that with a massive vote haul from the North-West, any political calculation that leaves the region solely in the hands of Buhari might amount to digging the grave of other candidates.

In furtherance of that calculation, the North-West has in the Peoples Democratic Party, the main opposition, produced the highest number of aspirants like Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso, Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, Senator Ahmed Makarfi and Tanimu Turaki, SAN.

The North-East, which is another region that has claimed Northern marginalisation is also parading the like of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and Governor Ibrahim Dakwambo of Gombe State.

Incidentally, the North-East is usually viewed as having similar political sentiments with the North-West. It has a big vote haul too, coming third in the order behind the South-West. Its challenge, however, remains the division that is always quite noticeable in its politics.

Whereas three of its states: Borno, Yobe and Bauchi often follow the political dictation of the North-West, the remaining three, Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe, are usually on the side of the North-Central.

But the schools of thought are pushing out with varied arguments ahead of the 2019 race. Some are of the view that candidates from any of the regions could emerge and win, owing to the fact that some 14 million new voters are joining the fray. Those joining the voting arena newly are believed not to possess the established sentiments of old, which revolve around religion and ethnicity. In the thinking of those in this school, the new voters are also seeking a clear departure from the old, especially a clean break from the well- known faces, whose politics, in their thinking, has divided the polity and brought retrogression.

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But another school of thought is that the core North, which separates itself from the other North needed to be set aside for Buhari, while candidates from the North-Central can contest and compete favourably by leveraging on the emerging Southern/Middle Belt alliance.

To this class of political thinkers, if all the parties pick their candidates from the North-West, the space would become crowded, thus creating the space for anyone to emerge in the North-Central and run away with victory. There is also the thinking that with the North-Central planning to speak with one voice in the emerging race, a candidate from the zone could easily beat Buhari even with the massive vote haul from the North-West.

It is also the belief of this class of thinkers that picking another candidate from the North- West where Buhari is strong would amount to playing the second fiddle and that a North- Central candidate who joins the political power brokers in the North-West to stifle the alleged “rigging” machine would do well to deliver the presidency for the North-Central.

Like a source stated: “Taking another candidate from the North-West where Buhari stands strong may not work. This is because the man had 70 per cent of the votes in that axis.

“The new strategy is to curtail the size of votes from that region by eliminating the over bloated votes usually coming in from the North-West. For instance it is difficult to defend 1.9 million votes that came from Kano in 2015 without void votes and this has been adduced largely to underage voters and influx of foreign voters. The strategy is to reduce the magical votes and the strategy is to work with local leaders to police the votes, such that even if anyone will win, the votes will be clean.”

It was gathered that this class of political calculators are also thinking of applying the same option in the North-East, where Buhari is also popular in states like Bauchi, Yobe and Borno.

“The North-East which voted massively for Buhari in 2015 has now found out that the man could not transform their lives and that they may have to look elsewhere. So using key stakeholders to police the votes in that axis would also lead to clean votes,” another strategist said.

Findings also indicate that there is a strong emerging belief that the North-Central might just nick the 2019 battle going by the situation on ground.  One of the arguments is that the region has been building close affinity with the South in recent years, with leaders of the Middle Belt attempting a clear demarcation of their geography from the entire North.

Now, it is being calculated that the political thinking in the North-Central, or the Middle-Belt now cut across three of the states in the North East including Taraba, Gombe and Adamawa, with sources saying that a political alliance involving that geography would easily deliver the goods.

“That is why persons like Senate President Bukola Saraki, his predecessor in office, Senator David Mark and the former Governor of Plateau state, Jonah Jang have joined the race.  There is also the belief that the North-Central has paid the price all the past years and has paid its dues politically and that it should now benefit from its loyalty to the North as well as the role of buffer it has played to the South.

“Remember that the like of Senator Olusola Saraki and Chief Sunday Awoniyi played significant roles in uniting the North Central to the North in times past, while the progressives of the Middle-Belt, including the late Solomon Lar also linked up very well with the South.  So besides the APC, any party that wants to compete in 2019 will have to give it to the North- Central,” a source in one of the political alliances explained..

It was also learnt that the North-Central in 2015 gave President Buhari some two million votes, which he had never garnered in times past, which is regarded as one of the key factors that swung the election his way. Buhari led Jonathan with 2.5 million votes in that election, a situation the promoters of North-Central campaign believed would have altered in favour of former President Goodluck Jonathan if he had won the zone.

Apart from the PDP and APC, the emerging parties including the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN) are also parading aspirants from the North-Central. Professor Iyorwuese Hagher and Dr. John Dara are aspiring for the ticket of the SDP, while Mr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim wants to win the ticket of ANN.

The Middle-belt Forum, a while ago announced it would pick a common candidate for the 2019 race from the region in order to guarantee the chances of the zone in 2019.

“Even though the acclaimed zoning arrangement in some of the parties is to the effect that the North would produce the candidate, there is nothing that precludes the other parts of the North from seeking the big office. The North-West has practically colonised the office each time it is zoned to the North and we feel this is the time to ensure someone from the Middle-Belt take the stage. We have a huge number of competent hands to pick from,” a leader of the zone said, adding that the thinking in the zone is that the electoral relevance of the North-West has been over bloated over the years.

“If the votes are clean enough and we are assured of free and fair election, the distance in voting figures would not be as wide as you used to have between the North-Central and the North-West. The push in 2019 is to ensure votes count and are counted,” the North-Central leader said.